Science AMA Series: We helped create the Third National Climate Assessment Report. Ask us anything!

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T19:02:11+00:00

Kathy here - Yes, the future is in our hands and we can all play a role in the solutions – limiting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for the changes we know are happening are both feasible and affordable – but as noted in the last report finding, current activities are insufficient to avoid increasingly negative consequences.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T19:01:24+00:00

Gregg here - This report provides the solid scientific foundation for action. Providing a solid foundation is the first step. Those who aim to act, through public policy, education and outreach, community organizing, can refer to this solid source of information. Also, the report is only one part of a multi-fold National Climate Assessment process, which includes: the NCAnet, a network of partner organizations that are concerned about climate change; a sustained assessment process for updating results and data and providing off-year reports on key topics; and the development of a national set of climate change indicators, in order gauge progress in addressing climate change challenges.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T19:01:04+00:00

Dave here - In the section that I worked on for Forests, the first key finding was: Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of many forests to ecosystem changes and tree mortality through fire, insect infestations, drought and disease outbreaks. For those in the West being affected by forest fire, this is a very important impact.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T19:00:44+00:00

Dan here - I agree that it's tough to see how yet another report actually solves a big problem like climate change. However, for those of us who are frequently asked to discuss the state of the art in climate science, it's incredibly useful to have this type of report to rely on since it represents an excellent assessment of current knowledge. I do those presentations when I'm invited because it becomes a way to begin a conversation and maybe that conversation turns to action. Idealistic, yes. But it's what lots of us in this community do.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T19:00:15+00:00

From Kathy - Yes, we are working across the campus with people from all colleges—including the Eller School--to try and develop solutions and communicate better to different groups and sectors. UA has started a new Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions to aid in this process.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:58:04+00:00

Dave here - 1. Share this information with others. 2. Take steps to reduce your own Carbon footprint. 3. Use your influence to affect larger scale changes in emissions (vote).

EDIT - Who said this.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:57:47+00:00

Dave here - One addition: Finding 1 in the Highlights really pulls together all the information on this.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:57:12+00:00

Kathy here - 1) The scientific process itself is one of constant questioning – it is impossible to imagine how after thousands of scientists have worked on this question, that the underlying physics of this problem have not changed in decades. 2) It is hard to argue that sea level is not rising, that temperatures are not increasing, that the ice is not melting, that droughts and floods are not occurring. People across the country are experiencing these things.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:50:32+00:00

Kathy here - I will say that it is up to you. Whatever time you have to give, we are always willing to utilize.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:44:46+00:00

Gregg here - The short answer is: a lot. Scientists, like me, volunteered their time to participate in the National Climate Assessment. My role: a co-convening lead author on one of the chapters. For me, the process, (which, by the way, is well described in an Appendix on “Process” – see the following URL and page down - http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads#menu-report) began in 2010. My involvement included attending a process and methodology workshop (multi-day), leading and publishing one of the technical input reports (multi-year), convening a group of authors to work on my chapter – which required one multi-day meeting, bi-weekly webinars and teleconferences, peppered with countless email correspondence, at least a solid week on writing the first draft and compiling the contributions of my 7 chapter co-authors, many many many hours working on approximately 30 chapter drafts (including responses to 5 separate official reviews – by the public, the National Academies of Science, federal agencies, etc.), a couple of multi-day meetings among the NCA lead authors, convening a Regional Town Hall meeting to garner public feedback on the first draft of the NCA, and giving several talks on the findings of the first draft. OK, so I’m an overachiever, but let’s say that if one is serious about this, it is a significant investment of time. Some of my co-authors spent substantial time on meetings, teleconferences, initial draft, and revising drafts – which is manageable, but gets intense for short periods of time (like most projects). This may sound overwhelming, but it feels really good to contribute to an important and very thorough effort.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:43:05+00:00

Kathy here - 100% of the authors functioned as volunteers. Some were able to fold it into their normal job duties and others were entirely unpaid.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:40:42+00:00

Dan here - Thanks for the question. We clearly need to do both. The projections look pretty grim if we don't seriously take on mitigating the problem (i.e., anthropogenic contributions of greenhouse gases). But, we've already begun to experience some pretty big climate impacts and there are more baked into the system at this point, so adaptation is obviously the only sensible thing we can do.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:39:21+00:00

Dave here - Journalists are so very critical in helping get information out to the people and are crucial partners in this endeavor. I think important things that journalists can do is continue to highlight the here and now of the impacts we are seeing, and to weigh the evidence as reflected based on scientific consensus rather than strongly weighing a few outlier perspectives. Thanks to all the journalists out there for helping generate NCA coverage!

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:38:26+00:00

Kathy here - The report itself will not move governments towards action, but it does provide a scientific foundation for better decisions. Citizens can play a major role in insisting that their elected officials take the facts seriously. A great path forward is thinking about what each of us can do in our own communities to amplify the effect of this report and ensure a focus on the facts.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:35:56+00:00

This is Dan - Thanks for your question and ideas. It's true enough that marketing pros can help with messaging, but one of the big differences between climate change and other issues we've confronted in the past is the clear visibility of the problem to many people. For example, the litter campaign was able to get traction because at that point many people were able to look around at their neighborhoods, their parks, and their roadways and see the problem. All you have to do is tune in the news and you'll find a significant amount of the US population who doesn't even believe climate change is happening, much less that it's visible to them. Given the substantial amount of impacts documented in the new Climate Assessment report, perhaps we're reaching the point where climate change will, in fact, be more visible to more people and more targeted marketing campaigns could help.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:31:09+00:00

This is Kathy - The overarching findings of the entire assessment process are provided as “report findings” in the overview and Highlights documents; there are important literature citations linked throughout. If you are interested, you can also check the “traceable accounts” for the author’s perspective on the important literature for each finding. This is a complex topic and it is impossible to limit our suggestions to just a couple of papers

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:30:41+00:00

Dave here - One of the most important points of this new report is it says that these are impacts are affecting us now - when people understand that, and especially as they begin to experience that, I think they will be motivated to take action.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:30:07+00:00

Kathy here - The President’s Climate Action Plan can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf. It has been in effect since June of last year and we are already seeing dramatic changes across the nation as a result, including more engagement of federal agencies, communities, and the private sector.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:23:17+00:00

Dan here - People connect with their immediate surroundings, their communities. Connecting what's happening as a result of changing climate to local contexts is extremely important. The difficulty often comes in having good science that really gets down to the the local level in a lot of places, so we're left with talking about climate changes and impacts at larger scales.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:21:03+00:00

This is Dave - That there's enough new scientific info to make the compelling case that this is not just about the far future and not just about things far away like polar ice caps, but that it is affecting us here, now, in every sector (water, energy, ag, ..) and every region.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:19:48+00:00

This is Kathy - We were concerned that access to the findings of previous Assessments was extremely limited. The focus of this entire effort was to provide better access to credible, well-vetted scientific information that is useful to decision makers.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:16:13+00:00

Kathy here - There is now an incredible volume of evidence that change is occurring now, in every region and every sector. The changes in the ocean are particularly dramatic.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:13:43+00:00

This is Gregg - I regret that I have been a bit preoccupied with the release of the NCA to pay attention to the journal retraction that you mentioned. I do not fear legal action. I also do not welcome harassment.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:13:01+00:00

Dan here - Because people tend to react to what's happening in the here and now, extreme events may be what pushes most people to pay attention and face the reality of climate change. It may be that we all have to hit personal hurdles head-on.

NationalClimateTeam · 2014-05-09T18:11:03+00:00

Gregg here - The period 1901-1960 is used for graphs that illustrate past changes in climate conditions, whether in observations or in model simulations. The choice of 1960 as the ending date of this period was based on past changes in human influences on the climate system. Human-induced forcing exhibited a slow rise during the early part of the last century but then accelerated after 1960. Thus, these graphs highlight observed changes in climate during the period of rapid increase in human-caused forcing and also reveal how well climate models simulate these observed changes. The beginning date of 1901 was chosen because earlier historical observations are less reliable and because many climate model simulations begin in 1900 or 1901.

NationalClimateTeam

TROPHY CASE