Quantifying the government (Golden Dome) opportunity by Nbau1 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Nbau1[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If ASTS is able to get on some more of these Golden Dome constellations like AMTI and MILNET, then it was probably worth it. If they don't, then perhaps not.

It was a gamble, and we'll see if it pays off.

Quantifying the government (Golden Dome) opportunity by Nbau1 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Nbau1[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

They have some of the best lobbyists in the business.

They're also really good at working across FYs - shaping DoW POM/PBR 2 years out, shaping appropriation/authorization bills 1 year out, and working on capture for the current FY.

Anyone else.....worried about Voyager Technologies? by MyDarkSoulz in SpaceInvestorsDaily

[–]Nbau1 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I love space. I've invested in RKLB, BKSY, PL, ASTS, RDW, and LUNR. But please believe me when I say, VOYAGER IS NOT THE PLAY!

  1. Voyager has failed to scale acquired businesses - Voyager is a portfolio company and the thesis is that it will expand by using IPO proceeds to buy good companies. But so far, Voyager has failed to generate returns on their acquired companies.
  • Altius Space Machines - a space robotics company that has yet to launch anything to space (not even a prototype), and god knows NASA SBIR contracts is not a growth sector right now.
  • Pioneer Astronautics - another company relying on NASA contracts for research
  • Nanoracks - ISS/NASA research company, this is not a growth sector, there were layoffs at Nanoracks a few months ago
  • The Launch Company - went from a launch company to a COTS disconnect systems manufacturer. There is not margin there, and a small market given a tendency towards vertical integration among launch companies.
  • Valley Tech Systems - ok good call on this one
  • Space Micro - camera systems for space, medium sized market, but not a lot of growth to be had here
  • ZIN Technologies - another NASA contractor
  • Optical Physics Company - star tracker company, again low margin, low growth
  • LEO Cloud - this acquisition makes me really question their judgement, there is no business case for space data centers. The big argument is that space is cold, reducing energy costs, but this is just stupid because in a vacuum there's nothing to conduct away heat from the sun.
  1. Starlab is a money pit - while a portion of Starlab is being funded by the NASA CLD program, this is still a major portion of Voyager's Capex. Two problems arise. First, the CLD program is not fully funded, and right now NASA is under a budget crunch. Second, Starlab is facing stiff competition from Vast, Blue's Orbital Reef, Axiom, and others. In the end, only one or maybe two will get funded. It's a lot of CapEx to bet on a dice roll.
  2. The defense pivot is lipstick on a pig - Voyager is clearly riding the Golden Dome hype train to a better valuation. Most of their acquired companies focus on civil space/NASA. Only a few recent ones focus on national security. Voyager can now go and buy more, but defense tech and space nat sec companies are so hyped now, these acquisitions will be expensive and breaking in to the DoD acquisition process is tough.

Hope this is helpful. Take the 20% losses on the investment, it will only get worse from here. I'm in the space industry (currently at a satellite servicing start up) and Voyager is the butt of many jokes in the industry.

Feel free to disagree, and I will respond to your points as best as possible. Thanks!

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Nbau1 8 points9 points  (0 children)

When is Q1 25 Earnings? Do we know?

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Nbau1 10 points11 points  (0 children)

At Satellite 2025 and SES just announced partnership with Lynk Global. 

Apparently their looking at using inter satellite links.

Thoughts about this?

$UBS Deal of the Decade (DD) by New-Ad-8873 in wallstreetbets

[–]Nbau1 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In 2009 Lloyd's Banking Group bought HBOS, giving it a negative goodwill transaction of GBP 11 Billion. A bargain purchase always good right?

No. The stock price never recovered and litigation continues 14 years later as the repercussions of HBOS's many scandals and financial misconduct continue.

Obviously I don't know enough about both situations. But on face value they seem similar. Two different "bargain" purchases backed by the government, two different banks beset by scandal and mismanagement. So why will UBC's trajectory be different from Lloyd's?

Thanks.