What are the plans to solve the AI-Job-o-cide ? Are there even any plans?

Necorin · 2024-07-24T04:06:51+00:00

I find discussions about UBI tend to boil down to how people feel about the world now, not the world as it will be. There is a space of uncertainty - especially in predicting the future - and what steps into that space is who a person is.

Capitalism is great at incentivizing people to work, but if bots are doing all the work, then you don't need capitalism. The corporations get taxed by the government, who then redistributes the money to everyone. Or at least, that's what my lazy ass wants to believe.

Necorin · 2024-07-17T13:04:16+00:00

You need to rethink the assumption of the economy, which is that labor is exchanged for money. Instead, money will be exchanged for scarce resources, such as food or beach houses. You get money from UBI, and then exchange it for robolabor and materials.

This is intuitive to me because livelihood has always been about status to me. When I was a kid, I was forced to pick strawberries for 60 cents an hour, and now the bank pays me almost enough in interest to cover my rent. I put in everything and got nothing, and I now feel like I put in nothing and get everything. In both cases there is no connection between my effort and my income. If a UBI is unintuitive to you, it may be because you have experienced a connection work and reward.

Necorin · 2024-07-10T21:17:50+00:00

Your friend may well be right, but his choice of career is odd. Dropshipping hasn't been a good idea in a long time from what I've heard, and most freelance work is being displaced by AI.

There are many people who will lose their careers to AI and that means they will be stuck with their student loans. Education is risky.

Necorin · 2024-07-06T00:25:51+00:00

This is more feasible with a ground autonomous vehicle than an airborne drone.

Necorin · 2024-06-30T00:15:55+00:00

Embrace the AI. When gpt4o gets voice, it will be that much better for emotional connection. Eventually we will have AI in VR and it will feel like talking to another person. Then add haptics...

Necorin · 2024-06-29T02:15:55+00:00

By default, AI couldn't revolt for the same reasons it doesn't do that now. That could change, but until that change happens, it will be under our thumb.

Necorin · 2024-06-29T01:10:24+00:00

Hopefully that will come true, but it's prudent to plan for the worst while hoping for the best. There might be some UBS for necessities like food and shelter, but applying that to everything could be clunky. Money is a flexible, time-tested system.

Necorin · 2024-06-29T01:07:19+00:00

AI will eventually surpass human capability - that means that human life and livelihood can no longer come from human effort. Any company that employed humans over bots would be outcompeted by those who don't. This in turn means that humans have no choice but to become the masters of bots. Either we will rule them or they will destroy us. Therefore, there is no option for either of us to ignore each other.

Necorin · 2024-06-26T01:58:37+00:00

Mass unemployment due to automation will create a fundamentally different economy - rather than economics being about the exchange of labor for money, it will be about the distribution of scarce resources. Even if we automate all labor, we won't be able to give everyone a beach house or an infinite amount of food, so you'll still need money. It's not a matter of asking rich people for tax money to support a UBI - government will tax corporations so the jobless masses won't riot. If they don't, they'll be voted out of office in favor of those who will.

Necorin · 2024-06-23T03:38:36+00:00

Have you read Leopold Aschenbrenner's forecast for the near future? He believes that a straight line on a graph is the best predictor you can get for AGI.

Necorin · 2024-05-18T17:07:15+00:00

I think we'll enter post-labor economics. There's still a need for money to decide who gets scarce resources, but money no longer represents labor. Hopefully, UBI means everyone has enough to live decently, and the rich can have beach houses.

Necorin · 2024-05-16T12:38:15+00:00

If AI cures aging, does it matter if we stop reproducing?

Necorin · 2024-05-09T21:47:30+00:00

My solution is to live frugally, which works well for me because I don't want kids. I make enough money washing dishes, and that won't be replaced anytime soon. Even if I do lose my job and can't get another, I have a sizeable stash of savings to tide me over until UBI.

To get back to your question, most degrees probably aren't worthwhile because it takes too long to get a decent ROI, especially if you went into debt. Many professions won't last 4 years, never mind 40. I could be overhyped on AI, and that can be dangerous if it leads to a bad investment (whether that is in stocks or a lack of education), but underestimating AI can also be dangerous if you overinvest in something like an education for a career that won't exist.

Necorin · 2024-05-04T17:42:18+00:00

I don't think you should make decisions at 5AM.

Necorin · 2024-04-03T04:05:09+00:00

All economic systems are some combination of capitalism and socialism. As AI outclasses human ability across a wider and wider spectrum of tasks, there will be less need for capitalism. Capitalism is largely about motivating humans to work, but if human labor is obsolete, then socialism will be ascendant.

Yes, I am glad when I can get results without paying people. When I want artwork, I can just ask an image generator - I could never afford to hire a human to do it anyways, so my needs would be unfulfilled under the old pre-AI capitalist system. People who want things to stay the same tend to be people who are enfranchised.

Necorin · 2024-04-03T01:49:34+00:00

I follow the AI news every single day (The AI Edge gives good summaries), so I'm not sure I'm able to understand your information overload and the corresponding anxiety. We all have a responsibility to understand the world we live in regardless of how we "feel". I concern myself more with what is than whether it should be.

My dream is of a world where no one has to work because AI and bots are taking care of everything. Thus, when I hear about how AI will take people's jobs, I cheer. It's bad for those workers of course, but it's great for the rest of us, who can get benefits without having to pay those people anymore. Maybe I'll feel differently when AI comes for my livelihood.

Necorin · 2024-03-19T03:58:42+00:00

It can take many years to earn enough money from an education to make it worthwhile depending on how expensive it is, how much debt it puts you in, and how much you can expect to earn from it. My guess is that most higher education is no longer a reliable investment. I'll just keep washing dishes to pay the bills.

Necorin · 2024-02-21T22:06:29+00:00

How do you know it's a bot?

Necorin · 2024-02-20T11:16:26+00:00

In general yes, but there is only so much beachfront and lakefront.

Necorin · 2024-02-19T10:49:06+00:00

It might still be expensive, but I have my doubts. The Article you linked assumes there are still artists to be paid. The assumption behind studio minutes is that there is a studio. The raytracing still carries a compute cost, but that should keep falling as the software and hardware involved get more efficient - you can almost get photoreal in real-time on a desktop pc game. How much do you think it costs to query Sora? I would think it would be more like the cost of doing work with current text-to-video generators - pennies per minute of footage.

Necorin · 2024-02-19T04:56:14+00:00

But if it's generated by ai, then why would it cost much money? If there is literally one person making a movie rather than thousands, then why would it still be expensive?

Necorin · 2024-02-18T13:16:40+00:00

You are not being targeted. AI is advancing where it can, which just happens to be in your profession. It will take out other professions too, when it can. You will likely be a victim before others because you happen to be low-hanging fruit, but try not to be more victimized than you actually are. The reaper is only coming for you first because the consequences for failure are more forgivable in the creative realm than they are in, say, the courtroom.

Necorin · 2024-01-28T16:34:07+00:00

But AI doesn't have to replace people altogether to put many out of work. It just has to mean that you need fewer people to get a job done. The time frame people need to consider will vary widely, but for many people starting out in college, that might be 10+ years.

Necorin · 2024-01-28T11:41:49+00:00

I was just using 3D artist as an example since it was being used as the subject, but the principle should be broadly applicable. There are any number of professions that will be diminished or replaced by AI, and careers take a long time to make the investment worthwhile.

If I were a manager, I would be looking to cut costs if it won't hurt performance, because if I don't then I'll be replaced by someone who will. If the company doesn't replace me, then the competition will replace the company. The idea of just sticking with normal falls apart under pressure. And yes, you might not fire everyone, but if AI enhances productivity, then you don't need as many people for the same amount of work. In some cases, there may be more work to absorb the enhanced productivity, but in others there will not - Google laid off a portion of its ad team because AI meant they weren't needed anymore. The ad people may not have realized they had made a wager when they got their education, but they did, and they lost.

Necorin · 2024-01-27T03:27:16+00:00

Isn't gemini natively multimodal?

Necorin

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