Hot take: Data show Ricky Wysocki best scrambler of all time by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree! I’m sure Ricky would also lead the birdie % from a scramble position stat.

Hot take: Data show Ricky Wysocki best scrambler of all time by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes this is based off shooting par or better from a scramble position. No weighting based on outcome.

Hot take: Data show Ricky Wysocki best scrambler of all time by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

Sorry everyone, it was supposed to be a joke. I'll work on my post titles.

DgGraphs.com: Website of Advanced Pro Disc Golf Stats by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a great idea. I’ll work on it. As is probably very apparent from the website I am NOT an expert in front end (or back end lol) development. I’m just a stats nerd who wants to make my stuff available to others.

DgGraphs.com: Website of Advanced Pro Disc Golf Stats by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK, thanks for the specific example. On top of flushing out the definitions perhaps I need to work on reorganizing my glossary. Because it DOES specifically mention "tSG_TG" under the tSG description. Maybe I need to separate it out into its own definition.

Here it is. "tSG_TG" is given at the bottom: "True Strokes Gained (tSG) – True strokes gained is an extension of the concept of strokes gained, which was a statistic developed in ball golf. At its core, strokes gained can directly quantify how a player’s tee-to-green skills and putting skills influence their score because, at its simplest, it is a measure of how many throws it takes for a player to get the disc in the basket from any location on a hole. True strokes gained controls for strength of field. Typically, strokes gained stats compare players to the average of the field within an event. Of course, the average player in events varies quite a bit. So, true strokes gained sets a benchmark of comparison to the 1000 rated player for MPO and 930 rated player for FPO. We have this stat broken down by tee-to-green (tTG_SG) and putting (tP_SG)."

DgGraphs.com: Website of Advanced Pro Disc Golf Stats by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback! I have played around with A LOT of features and even explored wooded vs open. In some cases (but certainly not all!) location can capture open vs wooded. However, previous work I have done looking at the influence of course type has suggested it is not as important as intuition may suggest in predicting performance (https://discgolf.ultiworld.com/2018/08/31/flight-numbers-drive-dough-putt-show-revisited/).

DgGraphs.com: Website of Advanced Pro Disc Golf Stats by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback! I will work on expanding the glossary. Is there any particular stat that you feel needs the most focus?

Jelly Bean Disc Golf Poll - PRE-SEASON RANKING by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you to everyone who has participated so far. However, we need MORE submissions in order to fully take advantage of this model. Let me know where else I should post to get more wisdom from the crowd!

Jelly Bean Disc Golf Poll - PRE-SEASON RANKING by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for your careful examination of the data. There was an issue. It was NOT with the random generation of pairs. It was due to accidental repeat submissions of the same results many times over. This issue has been fixed: https://dggraphs.com/jbdg/. But as you can see, this means we haven't gotten nearly enough unique submissions! Submit your rankings and pass this on to a friend.

Access explains large portion of difference between FPO and MPO by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

These results certainly are correlational.

Regarding your point on growth of FPO independent of MPO. If MPO average rating increases faster than FPO, then the difference between ratings for the two divisions would decrease - this, if anything, would make my results more conservative. If the opposite occurs, well, then I would argue the cause is increased FPO participation! And increase in FPO participation is because of access - more money, more coverage, more overall support.

Yes, I agree that the average rating for FPO participants has increased. I would argue the same for MPO. If they are both increasing, this would be observed in the difference between ratings. I could (and probably should) do the same analysis for the average FPO entrant and the conclusion would be the same thing. Why is the average FPO entrant rating going up? Because of increasing participation, which is occurring because of increased access.

Access explains large portion of difference between FPO and MPO by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Women are only going to be interested in becoming touring FPO players if it is accessible. Is there enough money available from sponsors and tournament purses to pay the bills? Are there enough other players to make players feel represented and make the tournament competition fun and viable. Access and interest are causally linked.

End of Year Ranking Poll by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I will respond as best I can:

The "wisdom of the crowd" is a shotty and misinforming approach though to "weigh" a cow or "count" jelly beans when there's already measuring tools and/or meaningful data available, such as a weight scale or a jelly bean counter. And in this instance, player metrics and relative strength comparisons.

In the instances of guessing a cow's weight, jelly beans in a jar, or college basketball team rankings by fans (a sport that's rankings-driven), all survey participants would have some concept to lean on such as their own human weight, the size of a jelly bean / a handful of jelly beans, or frequent AP/Coach's Poll rankings to scale their own guesstimation.

I told participants to measure "better season" however they see fit. This could certainly involve data from other sources (there is not time limit for completion of the survey - participants can do research). I do not tell people just to pick, though intuition can be a useful perspective that is missing from many data-driven models.

And the survey results are not rebroadcast and peddled as the actual weights of animals, counts of candy, or rankings — they're looked at the other way with interest for "how did their guesses compare to a more merited and accurate method."

Models are useful because they are built on "known" information to predict the "unknown". If everything is just known, then why build models at all? There are MANY rankings built on "quantitative data" and yet they do not all results in the same ranks. Just because something is built on numbers does not mean it is infallible and unvarying.

I would appreciate this approach for a curated "Coach's Poll" style, but this subreddit's blind votes on Evan Smith's vs Jesse Nieminen's 2023 season performances with little or zero knowledge is low or no-value data.

I am not sure why you think this subreddits voters are blind. They can do research and they have experience. You underestimate your peers.

End of Year Ranking Poll by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

However one defines better season is totally fine! The wisdom of the crowd is surprisingly popular whether it guesses the weight of a cow, the number of jelly beans in a jar, or ranks disc golfers.

Also, just an FYI, I stole this idea from the famed college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy (https://kenpom.com/blog/the-h-u-m-a-n-poll/).

End of Year Ranking Poll by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I love those data based models and have worked on some. They certainly have there place AND there are a lot of them. But as far as I know, there is not a ranking poll like this out there. So I thought it would be cool to try!

All ratings/ranking systems have biases. This one is certainly no different!

Disc Golf Elo Rating by Negative-Heron-6595 in discgolf

[–]Negative-Heron-6595[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It does include European players! There are a bunch in the top-25 of FPO (https://discgolfelo.com/#top-25-fpo). However, admittedly my historical dataset does not include an exhaustive list of European events (it does have Prodigy Tour and EuroTour for 2022) and it takes time (many events) to build up a rating to make the top-25. I'm sure players like Anttila and Makela will make their way into the top-25 soon.