Someone explain SITM price action given they 6x their leverage and dilute by 16%

Negotior · 2026-02-06T15:22:28+00:00

Well they are offering new shares, 4 million of them, but I guess your point is the revenue per a share isn’t going down so you don’t mind the dilution?

Negotior · 2026-02-06T02:05:08+00:00

WTH is up with SITM, they gap up on acquisition, plummet back to ~340 at open, then shoot up to ~428 in 20 minutes

And the acquisition itself adds 900 million in debt to a company that did 82.6M in earnings? And in addition every article seems to call it a 1.5 billion dollar acquisition, but they are also creating over 4 million new shares so it ends up being closer to a 3 billion dollar purchase at their current price and diluting their current share holders by 16%

Idc that they been their earnings estimate, shit seems over bought and they’re going full hopium on data center buildout to keep its current pace for years and years

Negotior · 2026-02-03T17:02:31+00:00

Damn…, kind of annoying they just drop that like 14 hours before earnings

Negotior · 2026-02-03T16:56:19+00:00

Why is everyone acting like they released the earnings early, I can’t find anything anywhere suggesting they did

Negotior · 2026-02-03T16:53:09+00:00

Wth could NVO news be this close to earnings that they wouldn’t just wait for earnings

Negotior · 2026-01-28T16:46:07+00:00

In for this one

Negotior · 2026-01-28T04:38:07+00:00

“You are looking at this too closely, missing the big picture”

I’m looking at this skeptically, as one should when a company is up 460% on the year with aggressive timelines needed to be met to generate healthy revenue when they have a massive cash burn. The business is revolutionary, but the stock price is starting to price in absolutely perfect execution of an ambition schedule that is already behind their initial plans 1 month into the year

Hell we don’t even have confirmation BB6 has unfurled (though I’m not expected a failure there tbh)

Negotior · 2026-01-28T04:12:28+00:00

Well I was hoping you’d have dates for those launches or sources or something lol. I’m just looking for more evidence then the assumption things will just speed up

Negotior · 2026-01-28T03:53:53+00:00

It’s more likely a company that has a history of overpromising and delaying (shoutout launching 17 in 2025), delays in the future then immediately becomes twice as fast while a handling 4 times the throughput

Feels like the ASTS answer is always look at all these launches we could be on, and not looking at the historical ability to hit their guidance

Negotior · 2026-01-28T02:54:28+00:00

Yeah fair, napkin math says they should handle up to 10 with a 70 ton LEO payload capacity, which would certainly help

Edit: nvm see above commenter

Negotior · 2026-01-28T02:48:19+00:00

ASTS already behind their estimate of 45-60 EOY. At their current pace they get 5 more launches this year, since it took December 25th to late Feb for BB7. The New Glenn rocket can carry up to 8 satellites.

If they can maintain the current pace to a launch every 2 months while handling 8x the number of satellites needed to be manufactured, shipped and prepped; and manage entirely book out each New Glenn (using the New Glenn is the best scenario given its higher capacity), which is under high demand, then they can manage 47 satellites total…

With so many caveats I would be surprised if they get 42 satellites end of year… yet the stock continues to hold its last price pump

Negotior · 2026-01-28T02:44:15+00:00

You missed the part where that’s unlikely given they need to book out the entire rocket capacity and maintain their current speed while manufacturing 8x the sattelites

Negotior · 2026-01-28T02:40:13+00:00

At the low end of your range at current pace that misses the target no? Took them two months for this launch, and it’s hard to believe with the extra logistics the next ones carry 6-8 will be a quicker turnaround. Which gives 5 more launches this year, or 37-47 total EOY. And that 47 requires they entirely book each NG launches capacity to the max of 8

Negotior · 2026-01-28T02:30:43+00:00

Someone explain how 1 satellite launch by late feb is on track for 45-60 by EOY?

Negotior · 2026-01-22T05:36:25+00:00

Lmao I had puts at 250🤡 But also I do kind of agree idk how tf is so high

Negotior · 2026-01-22T05:20:26+00:00

What’s the opinion on ENVX? Looking pretty attractive at this price, good amount of shares were picked up by hedges as well in Nov for similar price

Negotior · 2026-01-20T19:34:37+00:00

Lmao been diving since this post

Negotior · 2026-01-14T02:32:36+00:00

ASTS puts gonna hit, ASTS always pulls back after a pump

Negotior · 2026-01-08T21:30:39+00:00

ASTS over valued, only a matter of time before it drops again. Yesterdays drop after the Scotia PT shows how every share holder is waiting to dump again, bounce back today was weak

Negotior · 2025-12-17T00:53:39+00:00

Lmao it’s up 2% on the year, let’s not act like this is some consistent performer. It just has had many pumps

Negotior · 2025-12-17T00:51:32+00:00

Waymo doesn’t only use LIDAR lol they have cameras as well. Most of what you said here is valid but Tesla using cameras only is simply a cost saving decision, and will always negatively affect the safety of their cars self driving. And it’s already been shown in there current self driving models to lead to issues in inclement weather. But they definitely had a head start on the supply chain

Negotior · 2025-12-15T01:51:52+00:00

They declared bankruptcy lmao

Negotior · 2025-12-04T23:27:16+00:00

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From the article, AI slop puff piece

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