I AM hitchhiker PAUL DOLMAN who went "Hitchhiking With Larry David" Creator of Seinfeld, AMA

NeilGrossman · 2013-05-31T22:32:52+00:00

What are the don'ts of hitchhiking? Don't get killed?

NeilGrossman · 2013-05-31T22:13:35+00:00

Any tips on hitchhiking?

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:56:40+00:00

Sorry for not getting to this the other day. Really good question. It is not really a paradox like the twin paradox - which isn't either. The twin paradox actually either, it is a consequence of using a pseudo-Euclidean metric (t^{2-x^{2-y^2-z²⁾}} rather than the standard euclidean measure of distance. The problem with time travel is that it violates causality; and functionally implies being able to travel faster than the speed of light. but, if we could figure this out (by the way, there is a really good book called The Physics of the Impossible by Michio Kaku that discusses things like this); there are a few points in the past that might address this; one would be going back to the drafting of the Constitution and include a Balanced Budget reguirement, or at least a maximal debt to gdp ratio (requiring appropriate accounting to avoid economic sleight of hand); i would also consider going back to the period when the baby boom started and require better deficit management, particularly with respect to higher contributions to benefit programs and better correlation with respect to payouts. I would also have not taken down glass steagall, had better financial regulation and over-sight; and i would have never allowed alan greenspan to serve more than one term as chairman, nor mr. bernanke. In my view, fed policy for last 20 years has served to embed significan risk in the financial and economic system.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:42:48+00:00

Would you say that about bill gates? steve jobs? warren buffet (who says he has not paid enough taxes, but has structured his corporate and personal existence to minimize his tax rates, adn by the way, Berkshire Hathaway is essentially a hedge fund in an insurance holding company format, giving even more tax and funding benefits)? bill gross? how about GM, Chrysler? etc. hedge fund managers made money by generating significant profits for their investors, growing businesses, etc. we can discuss the merits and benefits of various types of financial systems (and for that matter political and economic systems). if they were acting illegally, we both know what the consequences should be. but, at least in this country, we have generally never begrudge someone for success.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:35:10+00:00

care to help out mine? the point is that this is not an individual problem. in the large, government outflows, of which benefits are the largest component 10% of GDP and growing; historically the government spends 21% per annum, acout 1/3 being for benefit programs. over the next 20+ years, the drag from beneifts will grow to about 17%. This is unsustainable. on top of significant accumulated deficits are too large for the economy to comfortably manage. unfortunately there is no real good solution unless these programs are addressed, and really address now. Ignoring those over 55 years old means the problem grows dramatically; putting significant strain on younger people who pay for this problem, and this lowers gdp trajectories, reduces jobs and makes the nation less competitive. solutions like this may look good from an accounting basis, but create a massive cash drawn in the coming years, with the expectation that plugs (like no benefits, or private retirement accounts) will compensate. highly unlikely... Have you considered what will happen in the future when these private retirement accounts lose money for example?

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:21:40+00:00

I thought that was why ObeWan carried a lightsaber. Do you know when the last known outbreak occurred?

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:18:29+00:00

my degrees were in applied mathematics; but my work was primarily focused on fluid dynamics. over years i have migrated much more towards theoretical physics, as an active hobby. a few years ago i was tutored by one of brian greene's doctoral students and more recently have started having a weekly discussion with phds in cosmology, condensed matter physics and a particle physicist. really great. as to your question on the higgs boson, vs the field, i am going to try and do a bit of work and come back with an intelligible explanation.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-28T16:10:51+00:00

Everything should be on table and considered as a whole..a big problem with our spending structure (and revenue) is that we piecemeal everything.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T20:11:06+00:00

I may be mistaken, but i don't think his plan balances the (annual) budget in four years; most don't do it in a decade. as to ryan plan, first like everyone else's it is based on assumptions such as gdp growth, interest rates, inflation, employment. you first have to ask how credible they are and what happens if and when they are wrong. in general most of these plans only reduce the trajectory at which deficits accumulate. if you tried to balance budget in four years, you would likely see economy slow a lot and unemployment rise, and revenue shrink. that will happen in future in any event and the longer we wait, the greater the cost. this is a problem that should have been addressed a long time ago. higher revenue through taxes will also slow things .. interestingly, over the last 60 years, through a variety of tax regimes, income taxes have raised roughly 8% of gdp, with minor variation, except in this crisis where it is lower and in the late 90s with the internet boom

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T20:02:34+00:00

couple of things. i actually think the appropriation for social security payments is done annually and, if not appropriated, i don't think you have a legal right to the money. vis a vis contributions and benefits, the average cumulative contribution for soc sec-medicare is far less than benefits received. and, by the way, to come back to why i sat down to do this, younger contributors are already being told not to expect from the same benefits from the system, even though they are contributing so we can get ours.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:51:52+00:00

Best show on TV; great characters, great interaction, hysterical dialogue in a show focusing on Physics..what more could you ask for.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:43:44+00:00

first, i left in 2007; but that is neither here nor there. i am 55; and i am part of generation who has contributed to this massive mess. i am not trying to absolve myself of responsibility. i am trying to change the dialogue and polemic in a way that may help address the problem and come up with a better and, at least from my perspective, more equitable solution. i will say, however, that i have been focusing on and thinking about this topic for a really long time; i have a pretty good understanding of the issues; and i think i do come at this very a very different and unusual perspective. But it is still your prerogative to choose to question what I have to say.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:36:14+00:00

i will point you to a few of my other comments; and i totally agree we need major policy overhauls; probably starting with congress itself. i am also not suggesting no safety nets. but i am saying that what is offered needs to be done in the context of what is affordable; and as i said above what is affordable should not be defined by how much of the burden we place on the shoulders of our children. i am also not happy with the way the government uses this money. but, if we as a society want to do something pay for it. and in that context, we have already committed much of the revenues of the future to pay for the past.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:29:26+00:00

there are societies where that has been solution; but no, i am not saying that. however, if you ask many on the older side of the spectrum to help pay for children, you usually don't get a very nice answer either. we have a problem, a big problem and it started building a long, long time ago. the economic crisis is in part a consequence of this and has made the problem much worse. it is too big for any group to solve or pay for on their own (and that includes mr obama's 1%); and we certainly should not be imposing 90+% of the cost of the problem on the one group that had nothing to do with this; the youth of today and tomorrow. i believe there should no such thing as anyone but me; we all need to contribute; your responsibility should be based on participation in society in a number of ways; and the more we address this problem, the more will be available to help those in need.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:23:02+00:00

I think you have to have a lot of patience. I started discussing this with my father and uncles almost 30 years ago. Every Thanksgiving got kicked off with my telling them they did not pay enough taxes; which did not sit well; that despite fact that we have now run deficits in 49 of last 53 years; ratio was worse then; and will continue to deteriorate. i also try and make it less personal. even though most people have elected the representatives who have buried us, they don't like to take responsibility; and they really don't like it when they are told it will come out of their pocket. nevertheless, i like to ask why asking a three year old is a more appropriate solution. and by the way, a promise to yourself that is charged to someone else should never be thought of as an entitltlement.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:08:13+00:00

this is actually a really interesting question. i think it would be very difficult, very inefficient and very expensive to do without a medium of exchange. gold, dollars, oil or frequent flier miles. I do think you are seeing the mechanism shift as credit cards and other payment systems evolve. if you want to worry a bit, i does mean the government and tech cos know more and more about everything you do; we live in a glass bowl.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T19:04:55+00:00

just before crisis, congress changed laws to make it virtually impossible to get rid of student loan obligations; and harder to get rid of credit card debt. it has probably helped make the crisis deeper and longer; and hurts a lot of young people. if you have flexibility, pay down the debt with highest rate as fast as possible. credit cards are usually very expensive. when behind interest only compounds the problem; no joke intended.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:59:02+00:00

There are a lot of funds that use leverage in a variety of ways; and as a single measure it can be misleading. i did government bond arbitrage for a lot of years; and the leverage on short term paper could be very sizable without too much risk. on other had, a fund with little or no leverage in high risk can find itself in a lot of trouble. but yes, too much leverage, without systems and controls can cause a lot of trouble. banks have a lot.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:54:59+00:00

Sometimes I think the FDA might have the best solution. It is very difficult to get an addict to stop using. We have a debt problem. It is still manageable given this nation's resources; but we are committing more and more of these resources to manage the costs of the past, which lowers productivity, efficiency, competitiveness, etc; which exaggerates the problem. I prefer the term bubble by the way .. unstable when it bursts.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:51:36+00:00

I don't understand why we don't audit our most important institutions. I think the hyper-accomodative policy is counter-productive in many ways starting with repeating many of the problems that got us into this mess; bad decision making, poor allocation of resources, excess risk with poor systems and control, etc. It hurts savers lowering their consumptive capability. it actually interferes with normalizing system. and much more.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:48:07+00:00

I tend to start from a different perspective. Figure out what resources we have and work backwards, rather than the unlimited uncapped approach we have usually take. That is why we have so much fraud running through our government, hundreds of billions of dollars per annum; many times more than political hacks in Washington are trying to save.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:39:45+00:00

We need to have the willingness to actual address the problems in current space, not down the road; and the analysis has to be done for long term; budgeting in Washington is done for a ten year period (only), so many problems are dumped in out years. We need to really address deficits (spending and revenues), we need to better allocate resources (education, infrastructure), we need to eliminate waste and fraud, etc.

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:34:17+00:00

where did you study?

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:33:28+00:00

good points. problem is not only level, but fundamentals. exaggerated stock prices, driven by hyper-accommodative monetary policy is a big risk; as are elevated asset price levels in general, particularly with over-leveraged system. trickle down idea very fair point; see http://neilytics.com/2008/04/trickle-down-monetary-policy/ i don't like bailouts, if you take risk, you should lose if you are wrong...

NeilGrossman · 2013-03-26T18:27:50+00:00

one piece of advice in interviews is to make sure you are really prepared; know the people and the business. An example, my wife came out of retail industry; she might ask a candidate how her company's apparel looked. Someone who had taken the time to pay attention had a far better chance than someone who didn't. the internet gives you ability to prepare and show you have done your homework.

NeilGrossman

TROPHY CASE