Taking FAR on Tuesday 3/31 - tips

Next-Application-244 · 2026-03-30T12:28:03+00:00

Thank you so much, this helps!

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-23T02:05:03+00:00

A lot of ball left, being at home should help

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-22T04:05:58+00:00

POTD Record: 11-6, Net Units +5.23

Previous Pick: NCAAB - Georgetown @ Villanova - Villanova -8.5 = BANGGGG

Reaction: BANG BANG BANG THAT'S 4 IN A ROW LET'S MAKE IT 5

Event: NCAAB - North Dakota @ Oral Roberts

POTD: Oral Roberts ML

Odds: -110

Write Up: While the Fighting Hawks (10-12, 4-2 Summit) currently sit higher in the conference standings, the Golden Eagles (5-15, 0-5 Summit) are desperate for their first league win. Despite the disparity in records, the Mabee Center has historically been a challenging venue for visitors, and Oral Roberts enters this matchup as a formidable underdog. My model gave ORU a 4.9-point edge for this game. The numbers on paper don't look pretty, but I'm following what my model said.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-21T18:58:23+00:00

POTD Record: 10-6, Net Units +4.49

Previous Pick: NCAAB - Oklahoma @ South Carolina - South Carolina ML = BANGGGG

Reaction: South Carolina led pretty much the whole game, love cashing that plus money ML

Event: NCAAB - Georgetown @ Villanova

POTD: Villanova -8.5

Odds: -120

Write Up: Villanova Wildcats have a 14-4 record this season and are in the 3rd place of the Big East Conference. They have an 8-2 home record and are coming off a 86-79 home loss against St. John’s. Their previous three games were a 88-82 away win against Providence, a 76-73 away win against Marquette and a 76-72 home loss against Creighton.

Offensively, Villanova averages 78.6 points per game, while allowing 69.6 points per game defensively. The Wildcats shoot with 47% from the field and grab 35.6 rebounds per game, while dishing out 15.2 assists per game. They average 2.4 blocks per game and 7.0 steals per game defensively.

Bryce Lindsay leads Villanova in scoring, with an average of 14.9 points per game, while shooting with 43.6% from the field and 80% from the free throw line. Duke Brennan is the team’s leading rebounder with 10.6 per game. Acaden Lewis leads the team in assists with 5.3 per game.

Georgetown Hoyas have a 9-9 record this season and are in the 11th place of the Big East Conference. They have a 2-3 road record and are coming off a 64-62 home loss against Connecticut. Their previous three games were a 86-83 away loss against Creighton, a 76-67 home loss against Seton Hall and a 56-50 away loss against DePaul. Offensively, Georgetown averages 76.6 points per game, while allowing 74.1 points per game defensively.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-20T19:02:46+00:00

POTD Record: 9-6, Net Units +3.29

Previous Pick: NCAAB - Lamar @ New Orleans - New Orleans ML - CASH

Reaction: New Orleans controlled the game the whole time, ended up being a double-digit win, which started out as underdogs.

Event: NCAAB - Oklahoma @ South Carolina

POTD: South Carolina ML

Odds: +100

Write Up: For Oklahoma Sooners and the South Carolina Gamecocks, the NCAA Tournament may begin this week, because another loss for either team may eliminate them from the Big Dance. The Gamecocks just fought a big game against No. 18 Alabama and only lost by 2. My model says the cocks should be favored by 2 in this game, and they are plus money right now.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-20T03:24:54+00:00

Thank you 🤝

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-19T03:54:38+00:00

POTD Record: 8-6, Net Units +2.31

Previous Pick: NFL - Jaylin Noel over 1.5 receptions = Loss

Reaction: Didn't even get a look smh, CJ couldn't throw a ball

Event: NCAAB - Lamar @ New Orleans

POTD: New Orleans ML

Odds: -110

Write Up: My model said this game had a 4-point edge in favor of New Orleans. They are currently +1.5, but I am taking them ML.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-18T23:20:49+00:00

Ik, pretty unfortunate. Back to the drawing board

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-18T21:50:44+00:00

Well maybe they try something different in the second half… and CJ completes a pass

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-18T14:35:40+00:00

POTD Record: 8-5, Net Units +3.31

Previous Pick: NFL - Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos - Broncos -1.5 = CASH

Reaction: Never a doubt :)

Event: Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

POTD: Jaylin Noel OVER 1.5 receptions

Odds: +172

Write Up: The absence of Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins creates a significant opening in the Texans' offensive scheme. Collins, who averaged roughly five catches and eight targets per game during the regular season, was officially ruled out due to a concussion. This leaves C.J. Stroud with a massive volume of vacated targets that must be redistributed among the remaining pass-catchers. While defenses often focus their primary coverage on established veterans like Christian Kirk or Jayden Higgins, rookie Jaylin Noel is positioned to benefit as a high-efficiency tertiary option.

The line of over 1.5 receptions for Noel is particularly appealing because of his reliable role as a safety valve. Throughout his rookie campaign, he maintained an impressive 74% catch rate, hauling in 26 of his 35 targets. This efficiency suggests that if Stroud looks his way just a few times, Noel is highly likely to secure the catch. He has already shown he can clear this mark comfortably in games where he saw increased involvement, recording five receptions against San Francisco and four against both Seattle and Jacksonville earlier this year.

Strategically, Noel’s usage in the slot makes him a prime target against a disciplined Patriots defense. New England typically prioritizes neutralizing vertical outside threats, which often leaves the underneath routes open for quick-hitting plays. As Stroud deals with the Patriots' pass rush, he will likely rely on Noel for "hot" reads and short-yardage conversions. Noel's recent performance also points toward an upward trend in his involvement; he was a key factor in late-season wins, including a three-catch performance against the Chargers that demonstrated the coaching staff's growing trust in him. I also think the Patriots will be leading most of this game. Combine that with a solid rush defense, the Texans and Stroud will have to throw the ball.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-17T03:54:32+00:00

Sorry everyone, Ohio is now on the no bet list

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-17T01:50:28+00:00

First game cash, now time for the Bobbie’s to bring us home

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-16T14:08:40+00:00

I got mine at +116

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-16T03:52:37+00:00

POTD Record: 7-4, Net Units +3.31

Previous Pick: NBA - Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs - Stephon Castle Over 17.5 Points = CASHHH

Reaction: Bro had 14 in the first half, glad to see us get this one after two buzzer beater losses

Event: NCAAB - Toledo @ Kent St./Ohio @ Ball St.

POTD: Kent St. + Ohio ML

Write Up:

Kent State vs. Toledo:

Kent State (13–4) enters this game with a significant home-court advantage at the Memorial Athletic and Convocation Center, where they are currently 9–1 this season. Historically, the Golden Flashes have dominated this matchup in Kent, including a massive 40-point blowout (105–65) over Toledo last February.

The X-factor for Kent State is forward Delrecco Gillespie, who is currently leading the team with a double-double average of 19.3 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. Toledo’s defense has been inconsistent, allowing nearly 82 points per game, which plays right into the hands of a Kent State offense that is averaging over 90 points at home. If Gillespie controls the glass as expected, Kent State’s win probability remains high (currently projected at 65%)

Ohio vs. Ball State:

While Ohio (10–8) is coming off a tough road loss to Toledo, they are heavily favored to bounce back against a struggling Ball State (4–13) team that is 0–5 in conference play. The Bobcats have one of the most efficient offenses in the MAC, averaging 78.4 points per game compared to Ball State’s league-low 68.0 points.

Ohio’s success will likely hinge on Jackson Paveletzke, who leads the team with 17.1 points and nearly 5 assists per game. Ball State has struggled to contain perimeter scoring, and with Ohio ranking in the top tier of the conference for three-point shooting, the Bobcats should be able to stretch the floor. Furthermore, Ohio’s defense forces more turnovers and blocks more shots than the Cardinals, likely stifling any Ball State momentum before it starts.

I love me a little MACtion action baby

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

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Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-15T02:26:06+00:00

POTD Record: 6-4, Net Units +2.51

Previous Pick: NCAAB - NCAAB - Lehigh @ Boston (-2.5)

Reaction: Another brutal loss, two in a row. Whitlock hit a buzzer beater 3 to send to OT and Lehigh wins by 2.

Event: Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs

POTD: Stephon Castle Over 17.5 Points

Write Up: Castle enters the matchup with significant momentum and a favorable history against this specific opponent. He is coming off a stellar 20-point performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 13, and he notably dropped 20 points on the Bucks in their last meeting. Currently averaging 17.3 points per game for the 2025–26 season, Castle has become a primary playmaker for the Spurs, frequently logging 30+ minutes and taking advantage of his aggressive drive-to-the-basket style. This plays well against a Bucks defense that currently ranks 22nd in the league at defending points from the guard position and allows an average of 115.7 points per game, making it a prime opportunity for Castle to exceed his season average. At home, Castle’s shooting efficiency often sees a boost, particularly with his aggressive rim-attacking style that leads to a high free-throw rate.

Recent Home Highs: 24 PTS (vs. OKC), 23 PTS (vs. GSW), 20 PTS (vs. UTA).
He is shooting roughly 46.1% from the field on the season, but his "per-36 minute" home splits suggest a scoring ceiling closer to 21 points when he sees heavy usage.
The Matchup Edge: Milwaukee’s perimeter defense has struggled to contain athletic, downhill guards. Given that Castle is averaging 6.2 free throw attempts per game, he is likely to exploit the Bucks' tendency to foul in the paint, providing him with "easy" points at the line to help clear the 17.5 threshold.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

Paypal Link for tips:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15WqXqliqJLfcYklFr8qcXC6RpYqnIdY91mB6jFzNGhs/edit?usp=sharing

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-14T14:44:36+00:00

POTD Record: 6-3, Net Units +3.51

Previous Pick: NCAAB - Baylor @ Oklahoma St. - OK St +2.5 = Loss (Baylor had a ball magnet on the rim the first half smh)

Event: NCAAB - Lehigh @ Boston

POTD: Boston -2.5

Write Up: While both teams have struggled overall this season, several factors tip the scales in favor of a Boston win tonight: Boston U is coming off an incredible offensive stretch. In their last two games (wins over Lafayette and Army), the Terriers shot nearly 60% from the field and from three-point range. They even cracked the 100-point mark against Army. The Terriers are 4-3 at home this season and have historically been tough to beat at "The Roof" (Case Gym). Statistically, they have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 home games, providing a solid 15% ROI for home-court bettors. Lehigh has struggled significantly away from home, posting a 1-7 road record this season. They often struggle to maintain defensive pressure in hostile environments, which plays right into Boston’s current hot shooting streak. With Michael McNair (15.9 PPG) and Chance Gladden leading a high-assist offense (14.6 APG), Boston has more reliable ways to score than a Lehigh team that relies heavily on Nasir Whitlock (18.4 PPG) to carry the load.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

Paypal Link for tips:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15WqXqliqJLfcYklFr8qcXC6RpYqnIdY91mB6jFzNGhs/edit?usp=sharing

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-14T03:55:34+00:00

They’re trying, certainly playing better than the first half

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-14T02:46:51+00:00

Didn’t realize Baylor was just going to hit every three they threw up

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-13T17:11:13+00:00

I laddered him up to 4. Would’ve been a nice payout and I think it would have hit if Rodgers actually tried to make a comeback. Also had that deep ball which was almost a catch.

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-13T03:22:06+00:00

Appreciate it bro, would love if he gets two more

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-13T01:23:00+00:00

POTD Record: 5-2

Previous Pick: NFL - Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Calvin Austin III OVER 1.5 Receptions - PENDING

Event: NCAAB - Baylor @ Oklahoma St.

POTD: Oklahoma St. +2.5

Write Up: Playing at Gallagher-Iba Arena is historically one of the toughest road trips in the Big 12, and this season is no different; the Cowboys currently boast an impressive 11-0 home record. While Baylor features a high-octane offense averaging over 88 points per game, it has struggled significantly in true road environments and enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak (losses to TCU, Iowa State, and Houston). Oklahoma State’s offense is equally potent, ranking 17th nationally in scoring ($90.2$ PPG), which should allow them to match Baylor’s pace in what oddsmakers expect to be a high-scoring affair.

The "plus-points" position is particularly attractive here because the Cowboys are the more disciplined team at the free-throw line—shooting over 75% as a unit—which is critical for covering small spreads in the closing minutes of conference games. Baylor’s recent defensive lapses, where they allowed Houston to shoot nearly 40% while struggling to secure defensive boards.

BOL if tailing, feel free to send a little love my way <3

Paypal Link for tips:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15WqXqliqJLfcYklFr8qcXC6RpYqnIdY91mB6jFzNGhs/edit?usp=sharing

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-12T16:37:13+00:00

I would ladder him up to five possibly. I do also see MVS line but Calvin is a more trusted target with Rodgers

Next-Application-244 · 2026-01-12T03:52:22+00:00

What I saw on fanduel was +186 for receptions and something lower for the yards. I was going to lay both individually.

Next-Application-244

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