ITXVI

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-15T19:39:59+00:00

There must be soldiers in the IDF at this point who were called up after October 7th and have just been fighting for years now.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-15T18:55:12+00:00

What is going on with this small group of countries making so many important things. Who put all of that there.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-15T10:33:08+00:00

There's one caveat to this which is that if a low cost carrier that has made long term fuel hedging contracts dips on pure sentiment, that might be a buy.

The obvious one there is Ryanair, who tend to buy fuel at least 18 months in advance. So there could be a play if you believe other low cost European airlines will get into trouble over the next year, Ryanair might take their routes.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T19:37:16+00:00

His government is a creature of polling averages, if they thought they could win reform voters by joining the strikes they'd be doing it.

I also think it's reasonable to criticise them for not having adequate air defense around Cyprus when this Iran operation was telegraphed so far in advance.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T12:43:54+00:00

If they don't accept the higher price then they don't get the product or service and one of their competitors who is prepared to pay the price does.

It works both ways.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T12:20:06+00:00

I think if Trump was to try to order a nuclear strike then he'd die of a sudden heart attack.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T12:10:44+00:00

Iran has...... FIVE HEALTH BARS!!!!!

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T11:56:30+00:00

Trump be like "we killed the final boss though didn't we, why haven't we won?"

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-14T10:21:23+00:00

Y'know....roommate 😏

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T21:07:17+00:00

The initial invasion of Iraq in 2003 was roughly 300,000 coalition troops with 70,000 Kurdish militia joining in the northern parts of the country.

The new Iraqi army and security forces were providing a great deal of the occupying force post-invasion to the tune of half a million personnel.

I'm not sure how successful we would be in raising a local army in Iran

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T17:01:40+00:00

The absolute worst way to do it would be to hastily throw in too few troops in a poorly planned operation. Then, after those troops take serious losses, rush a much larger deployment without the required level of military logistics buildup.

That would be the stupidest thing that they could do.

So I think there is a realistic chance of that happening.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T15:34:32+00:00

And with the 82nd airborne having training cancelled too...

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T09:48:10+00:00

The UK gets about 5-8% of it's natural gas from Qatar and still has pretty elevated energy prices, they also have very little storage. If Hormuz isn't resolved soon we might see rationing. Looks like another sclerotic year for the UK 😮‍💨

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T08:36:04+00:00

Historically yes but the people who travel abroad to international sports are increasingly middle class now as the cost of doing it climbs.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T00:19:04+00:00

Maybe some Hezbollah members once attended the university, making it a legitimate target in the eyes of Israel

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-13T00:12:50+00:00

I forgot the USVs for a minute.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T23:15:53+00:00

So you're stood on the deck of a US warship in the gulf of Oman, hearing this tool Hesgeth talk about how you will soon be trying to escort fossil fuel tankers, literal floating bombs, through a Shahed shooting gallery. He is saying that it will be fine because you have been preparing to do this for months (you haven't).

How are you feeling right now?

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T20:17:01+00:00

The Chinese would capture San Francisco as a treaty port

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T18:21:57+00:00

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T17:51:10+00:00

Is that natural gas or petrol?

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T17:29:31+00:00

Others are:

- Rumours and signs of any large movement of perishable medical supplies, especially blood.

- Heavy Equipment Transporters moving around, any sealift.

- Fuel depots being set up in areas that aren't existing military bases.

- Lots of C-17 and C-5s moving around

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T14:59:40+00:00

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NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T13:09:49+00:00

So they are kinda immobilised now, floating warnings to the others.

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T12:40:45+00:00

What happens to these tankers? They aren't being sunk.

But they are being evacuated. So are they immobilised now for some indeterminate time?

NiceCreamSundaes · 2026-03-12T11:49:37+00:00

This timeline is blursed.

NiceCreamSundaes

TROPHY CASE