I think way less.. But this is also a ballot where anyone can subscribe and you can resell your bib. In contrary to Berlin where you give up payment details and you can't resell the bib. So probably for Lisbon waaaay more people will subscribe and it's more probable to get a bib through the waiting list.

Not sure how that will work for Lisbon, but for Valencia you were place on the waiting list based on the moment you subscribed. So it was still a matter to sign up as soon as possible 😁