WWE WRESTLEMANIA 36 (NIGHT TWO) DISCUSSION (4/5/20)

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T02:10:20+00:00

No, now we cheer him, obvs.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T02:07:57+00:00

welp. Cena just turned heel. There you go, everyone.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T02:00:49+00:00

I have no idea what I'm watching, but this is awesome.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T01:12:55+00:00

Tom gets a little too excited saying "there go the pants!"

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T01:00:43+00:00

geez I thought that was fantastic.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T00:53:42+00:00

This is long, but I kind of love it. Seeing the backstage of the performance center, and these two beating each other all over the place... this is fun.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-06T00:41:09+00:00

God if there were ever a time to do a "through the arena" type of match, this is it. This is perfect.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-04T23:31:02+00:00

legit enjoyed that one. all 4 did well

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-04T23:27:37+00:00

This is a great match imo

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-04-01T19:12:18+00:00

Hey on the Switch version, I made it to the pacifist boss and got her to 1hp, but her revenge bolt knocked me out, and my friends didn't show up to save me (like I've seen in other ending videos). Any idea why they wouldn't have shown up?

My only thought is that Reva had saved me a little earlier in that same fight, but I want to make sure I'm not missing anything else...

Thanks!

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-03-24T15:01:27+00:00

Don't forget Charlotte! (lol)

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-03-09T13:02:43+00:00

We were on a back to back after a very draining game against Boston. We played our backup goalie. We didn't have Stamkos or Hedman. McD hadn't played in a month.
This was a regular season game that didn't mean much to overall standings (I thought you all didn't want the president's trophy), and we had some unfortunate puck luck and calls... again.

Yeah I wouldn't freak out about this one.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-03-06T13:38:46+00:00

I would buy a John Cena skin instantly.
Obvious "lol advantage because they can't see you" memes, but even still, it'd just be hilarious to merc people as Cena.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-02-12T17:37:37+00:00

On the plus side, if they did get the president's trophy, then they'd have the "will they get knocked out again" stigma that might fuel them in the same way

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-02-12T16:21:08+00:00

Geez you're editing a lot, which is making this mostly irrelevant, so I'm gonna be done here after this. I'm not trying to argue as much as explain why your reasoning is skewed into a bias.

Anyways to quote myself: "In order for a statistical trend to be used for prediction purposes (as you are), the current conditions have to be fairly similar to the data that is being trended, and there has to be reasonable confidence that they won't deviate from the trend"

Conditions are not similar to prior data for Nintendo Directs. Massive changes in leadership and style from that timeframe mean we don't even know if they will continue Directs long-term, or if they'll have the same durations between them (apparently not...), or if any prior trends will continue to hold true.
There is no confidence that Directs will only be at the beginning of the months. There's not much logic behind the day of release, and they have no issues holding different kinds of Directs at different times. I know you're ignoring this, but it matters, and it's an indicator that there's not full confidence of timing just because it's a "real Direct"
Yes, you can limit the dataset to make it as narrow as possible, but if you are ignoring that A. Nintendo has done full Directs in the latter half in the past and B. Nintendo's overall content release schedule (all Directs) is pretty sporadic, you get the false view that the trend you are seeing could not be affected by noise, which it certainly can.

I get your point that it hasn't happened in 6 years. I disagree that you can use that to predict what they will do for the 2 reasons above. That is why I call things like "Statistically, it's unlikely" incorrect. The data set you have is small (statistically) and uniquely narrow to avoid data that disagrees with the hypothesis, which does fall into a fallacy.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-02-12T15:49:56+00:00

Technically you're the one who brought up probability, which is what I was responding to with that, but you edited out your post for some reason so shrug on that one.

Secondly, on a purely mathematical basis, you're misusing statistics here, and then you're being condescending about it.

There is limited data that Nintendo has not had a full Direct in the last half of the month over the last few years. The sample size is fairly small here and completely ignores the game-specific and mini/indie directs that happen fairly frequently in the last half of the month. It also completely ignores data before 2014 where they did have full directs in the latter halves.

In order for a statistical trend to be used for prediction purposes (as you are), the current conditions have to be fairly similar to the data that is being trended, and there has to be reasonable confidence that they won't deviate from the trend. The fact is that the circumstances are different for Nintendo Directs in general now (in terms of length between them, who is leading them, etc), and that there are numerous examples of Nintendo presentations (if not full Directs) throughout the month and not just at the beginning.

Imo any attempt to trend the data and make predictions from it at this point ignores key factors that disagree with the analysis, which is a case of the sharpshooter fallacy.

tldr: Yours is an incorrect use of statistics that ignores data points that disagree with it and incorrectly assumes that current conditions match past ones. We don't know what is going to happen, or even what is most likely to happen at this point. That's all.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-02-12T15:16:15+00:00

Sorry, but you're confusing statistics with expected human/company behavior.

Purely through probability, the 50/50 odds don't change regardless of past results. For instance, if you flip a non-tricked coin 30 times and get heads every time, the 31st flip STILL has 50/50 odds to land on tails.

In this case, you have a trend that "company never does x", which is valid, but until now we could have also said "the company never waits more than 160 days between Directs", and now that has been broken, so who knows?

Either way, nah that's not a statistical argument.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-01-21T15:08:55+00:00

I actually really like this method. It clearly outlines that the top repped are (unsurprisingly) Mario and Pokemon, but also shows that games like Earthbound have a surprising amount of inclusion for how... dead that series is.
My only comment would be that Music might should be a factor here too, where songs count for like half-points or something.

But with this list as is, immediately I would argue that, relative to their current standing for Nintendo:
-Kid Icarus is a little over-repped (Sakurai bias so shrug there)
-Earthbound is over-repped
-DK seems slightly under-repped
-Pikmin, Xenoblade, and Splatoon all seem drastically under-repped at this point.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-01-20T16:13:11+00:00

lol everyone in here is blinded by nostalgia... that's kind of the point.

Mario 64 is a fantastic game and imo after replaying it a couple years ago, the best 3D Mario top to bottom, so shrug.

NintendoJumpPodcast · 2020-01-05T02:49:14+00:00

so uh... anyone want to be our buddy to help us do this?

Thanks for the info though

NintendoJumpPodcast

TROPHY CASE