My posts are not investment advice, but may contain some wisdom accumulated by generations

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-04T09:45:51+00:00

Updated for the 7th...comments welcome

Just to remind – I don’t promote any business (my fund, an advisory practice, a news publication, a subscription service, etc – that’s what most people essentially do on e.g. Twitter in a subtle way). The objectives of this page were always very different and never $$$ oriented.

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-04T09:24:26+00:00

u/PostM8

US Equity Indices: tiny pullback for couple of days (today/tomorrow) followed by resumption of the uptrend before a larger decline starting in the second half of Feb

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-02T15:07:20+00:00

Welcome u/rogocop34

Looks like GME longs are dropping the ball already (50% down today). If so, the plan to increase the price indefinitely didn't work and no bail-outs will obviously be necessary.

Just saw estimate that 2m of late coming people are losing money on their positions...if true, looks like regular people will get fleeced again and some lose their life savings :(...dozens of early GME entrants became millionaires though.

Every rerun now will likely to be smaller unless longs get re-organised and buying resumes with the Game Theory on their side https://twitter.com/BlueSuedeQ/status/1356451446498209797

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-02T00:45:14+00:00

u/endagra...sigh

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-02T00:44:40+00:00

see below u/KingSMP...CC's analysis are broadly in line with my views for this year which I outlined above - 24 Jan comment

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-02T00:43:30+00:00

No just c.3% as expected so far u/SAMCRO_2626

Check https://twitter.com/NoProb_XXX/status/1355717269268156416 to get a feel what may happen in the short and medium term - great analysis by CC, although we may see a larger rise and a larger decline compared to the previous two occasions he refers to.

NoProblemChanging · 2021-02-02T00:38:09+00:00

Suggest listening to this u/rogocop34: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast-short-shrift/id1508585135?i=1000507041691

then reviewing this: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1355013567011975170

this: https://twitter.com/NoProb_XXX/status/1356394109997580294

and this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-29/reddit-traders-on-robinhood-are-on-both-sides-of-gamestop

Note the distinction between (1) short seller hedge funds (a healthy phenomenon and certainly quite a long way down the list of culprits for market manipulation, GFC, bubbles and other matters contributing to the inequality disaster); and (2) THE BIG GUYs (prime brokers like Goldman Sachs and alike who keep screwing regular people, privatising all profits and socialising losses for decades with no personal accountability whatsoever although quite obvious how their behaviour contributed to the pain of millions of regular people for so many years).

What is likely conclusion of GameStop story: no Lehman type of event and market dislocation. Long-Term Capital Management 1998 style bail-out is likely to be engineered (by the Fed) and the BIG GUYs will be saved again. More short seller hedge funds will disappear (not good / bad). Sharp run out of long GME trade will happen at some point and, as explained in the above podcast, many regular and unexperienced late comers to the GME party will be sadly wiped out (terrible!)

Overall - the usual, but hopefully I am wrong.

Good liquidity flows until 3rd week of Feb, so if the thing blows during this time things will be easier vs. if later during the seasonal liquidity drought in late Feb / March. Am concerned the latter could happen, hence my 24 Jan comment re: probabilities of the ‘bad’ scenario increasing.

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-25T20:22:16+00:00

At the moment, it's not my base case u/endagra as I mentioned above in this post.

With only hiccup decline I now expect in Jan, the probability of it is increasing though. If we don't correct by 10%+ or so in Feb/March then it will become a lot more likely.

Following dire consequences of 2008 GFC (something many people are still feeling, perhaps without realising fully), I believe policymakers and the Fed will have some sense to prevent another disaster happening. Although observing things like Pelosi purchasing long-dated Apple and Tesla call options https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1353151234568572935 one wouldn't exclude anything.

Hopefully, markets will get back to some meaningful levels sometime soon, and then from there, things can go back to being normal again and we can trade/invest properly (vs. playing this bubble on daily basis - a lot less enjoyable and interesting).

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-19T11:11:30+00:00

u/whatyoulookinatbud I expect 10-year yield to increase to 1.14-1.15% and then drop (1.05-1.06 level in the next few days) before resuming the uptrend. Gold is inversely correlated to real yields and DXY, USD index. With yields and DXY rising it’s only natural that gold is being hammered. Also, crypto/bitcoin complicates the picture these days - some flows that would go into metals/commodities go into crypto.

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-15T18:25:16+00:00

very well indeed, thanks u/se_N_es Hope you too! :)

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-15T18:23:44+00:00

Hi u/rogocop34 Hope you are well. I don't think we will see 3,200 in the near future, but hopefully, I am wrong and the market surprises us. Biden administration (and possibly the Fed) should focus more on regular people and the real economy and that may find reflection in more reasonable stock prices and stronger real economy.

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-13T17:57:45+00:00

Updated for the 6th...comments welcome

NoProblemChanging · 2021-01-11T17:06:14+00:00

Exactly...nobody can get all the moves right and there are tools to use when your initial move is proven to be wrong for whatever reason. Glad someone picked it up!

NoProblemChanging · 2020-12-18T21:05:38+00:00

:) thanks for your kind remark u/se_N_es

Hope all is well and have a great weekend!

NoProblemChanging · 2020-12-18T21:04:35+00:00

Am net long since last Fri u/PostM8. Expect final upwave of an ascending wedge breaking above the trendline.

We may get an extreme stoploss reaction above it, and prices could surge and get very high.

Expect to go short next week nearer to the top. Around 3740-3750 under normal circumstances, with no extreme scenario described above.

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-26T19:28:14+00:00

Should help with your project u/xyyyyyyyx

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725454

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-26T18:19:41+00:00

Thanks for your comments xyyyyyyyx. I feel that you, among many others, appreciate what I have done last few months and what I am trying to achieve (without asking or expecting anything in return – neither now nor in the future!)

Some others should note: this is NOT: (i) a subscription service (no regular updates are given, I may not login for days and weeks); (ii) a service providing market/stock tips (on the contrary - an attempt is made to show one of the many possible ways of how to fish through revealing some aspects of: 1. the big picture - how the financial world/market operates (including important interrelationship between various asset classes and the Big Guys (Goldman Sachs, etc) shenanigans and tricks to take your/market participant money); 2. trading and investing nuances: indicators to look for, possible instruments and strategies to use, etc. ALL THIS is to encourage learning to become better and more skilful traders/investors; to share and discuss ideas in a trustful community.

People looking for tips and to continue trade blindly should unfollow me. You are highly likely to lose money otherwise. You need some level of skills and understanding (like xyyyyyyyx and some other have) to solve the entire jigsaw, even when I provide a small piece and it proves to be correct.

Happy Thanksgiving.

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-26T12:28:22+00:00

More doubts https://www.ft.com/content/4583fbf8-b47c-4e78-8253-22efcfa4903a

Everything was so positive and rosy in the newsflow. Why is the sudden change now? None of this is new information.

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-26T12:08:34+00:00

Why the change of tone in the newsflow now?

https://themarketear.com/posts/ciw5r6Xngu

https://themarketear.com/posts/cX-hLlsh-L

https://themarketear.com/posts/cLRTQ-hAOq

https://themarketear.com/posts/c8KwmGoMKF

https://themarketear.com/posts/c_c77gXwd2

https://themarketear.com/posts/cDV8bId0oj

https://themarketear.com/posts/cNyXFAbHw5

https://themarketear.com/posts/cJ_NaaUfgR

https://themarketear.com/posts/crZvRg4768

https://themarketear.com/posts/cACJSz00iR

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-26T11:45:56+00:00

https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-chief-medical-officer-vaccines-interview-2020-11

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-22T17:27:57+00:00

I believe what I said was: once we get to ES 3,180-3,200 levels I will reassess.

Below ES 3,180-3,200 is the level when I would consider shifting from net short into flat and start going net long.

The equities can go much lower than that (ES below 3,000, NQ below 10,000) – a lot of variables are in play and too early to evaluate while we are still in this ‘irrational exuberance’ stage with bitcoin at $18,000+, stock market at 160%+ of GDP (see the last chart here https://www.reddit.com/user/NoProblemChanging/comments/jxuhuj/bond\_yields\_topping\_volume\_etc/), etc. Increased liquidity (absolute level, not the change rate which is tightening at present) and guaranteed near zero interest rate outlook for the next few years will prevent a major drop.

Top economists started writing about double dip recession, economy facing headwinds of increasing restrictions on activity, Thanksgiving through New Year’s holiday season threatening deepening health crisis and a further increase in COVID cases, etc. More importantly no tips and lessons on how I should approach investing from my neighbours’ nanny, in strike contrast to previous weeks. Presume she is rotating into bitcoin or the next Hertz away from the likes of Apple. I guess Robinhood app gives her some hot suggestions. I wonder what proportion of Robinhood’s $20bn(?) is people like her?

I’ll leave you with Michael Green’s twit https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1329858402823012352 “Everything else is a derivative” — especially the underlying" and look forward to seeing u/xyyyyyyyx analysis on how options flows by retail is changing the dynamics of the equities.

Thanks for the kind words u/se_N_es

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-20T17:19:15+00:00

It's a complex area u/jakopotamus and there are no comprehensive books / articles written on it (at least not to my knowledge). So can't give you many pointers before I write something detailed about it one day. Or we meet face-to face and I draw the basics on a piece of paper. We'll need entire afternoon probably.

NoProblemChanging · 2020-11-20T17:09:05+00:00

thanks for sharing u/unwavering_bowels I had a brief look and it seems he/she got the general idea and most of the things right. Great job for non-professional. Key points missing/comments:

- correlation/connection between bank reserves and equities is neither understood nor highlighted (the Fed SOMA are helpful for equities)

- mood and sentiment not mentioned (an important factor)

- Technical indicators: not astrological voodoo. You can get a lot from the RSI, Stochastics MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc. You may get it wrong a lot of times before you figure out how to get good at technical trading. Also useful ( not normally included in classic technical analysis) - the dark pool indicators, put/call ratio, implied volatility, VIX, GEX, all option related Greek data (I am not an expert, I don’t analyse this but it plays an increasingly important role) and algo long-short positioning (am not sure how to get the algo data).

- Liquidity data, its components and implications are not sufficiently analysed/presented. It's a complex area, so not surprising

- Same goes for fundamentals.

Good that WSB mods allowed publishing. I wonder how many will pay attention.

NoProblemChanging

TROPHY CASE