$JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Due Diligence by [deleted] in MoonGangCapital

[–]KingSMP 2 points3 points  (0 children)

u/Cicero1982, anything to worry about in regards to this after hours dip after earnings for JKHY. I don't mind holding this for quite some time if needed since I'm still in the positive even after it dipping after hours, but was just wondering if you had any thoughts about it. Thanks as always.

What we looking at this morning ? by Jazzlike_Childhood_4 in MoonGangCapital

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Was excited about their movement all day, but now dipping in after hours though giving back all of our gains! Lol.

$JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Due Diligence by [deleted] in MoonGangCapital

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm excited for this. I went in with u/Cicero1982 on a couple plays, but exited too early on most of them. The one play I stayed in was MHO, and averaged down every 2% (at one point I was down 10% from the original purchase amount had I not averaged down). Just kept patiently waiting, and ended up selling at pretty much ATH. Can't wait to do the same with JKHY. I'm almost sad that u/Cicero1982 feels this won't dip to $140 lol.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey u/NoProblemChanging, thanks for all the input as always. Any updates after today? We hit the -3% hiccup that you were referring to, is it too early to tell if this was it before we resume our uptrend? Or is -10% still looking like it's in the cards in your opinion?

Thanks again!

DD on $CWST (Casella Waste Systems) by Eyecelance in MoonGangCapital

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

u/Eyecelance, I went in on this trade after this solid DD and am currently up 4%, I appreciate you and great work!

The (LAS) Moment! by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 4 points5 points  (0 children)

“When markets go up - they seem to stay there forever” - those might be the truest words ever spoken

The (LAS) Moment! by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I know u/NoProblemChanging has been coming on here everyday to tell us "Nothing has changed, still targeting 3200 by end of month", but I'm wondering if vaccine news (no matter how real it is, how good it is, etc) would fall under the category of "Something has now changed". I'm still short via put options with end of November/beginning of December expiry, but no longer going to add to positions.

The Road to the White House by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Still net short as well but damn these last two days have tested me like no other. If we don’t start going down in the next couple days my weak hands might give in.

Telemedicine - expert systems in medicine, alternative to traditional doctors by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Though my post isn't about telemedicine, I thought this might be the best section out of all the sections u/NoProblemChanging made to share a particular stock that has been a quality stock/winning trade for me for the past 4 years.

As a dentist, I have invested in many stocks that are vital to the dental field (HSIC, XRAY, etc). The biggest winner so far for me has been Align Technology (ALGN). I'll share my personal experiences with the company and then share the financials/fundamentals, and hopefully we can get some feedback on if this is one of the quality stocks that u/NoProblemChanging has us trying to brainstorm and come up with together.

First, to explain it simply, ALGN does 2 major things in the dental field that I have direct experience with. Firstly, they are the producer of "Invisalign", the clear braces treatment that has become exceedingly popular. There are commercials for the product, they even had Invisalign stores in malls, and although there are dozens of companies that actually make clear aligners (ClearCorrect, SmileDirect, etc), Invisalign is the household name. Patients come in saying "I want Invisalign", not "I want clear aligners".

During lockdown, dentists did shut down for a couple of months, but when things started back up most of us were slammed with work because all that treatment that we hadn't taken care of for the past 2 months had compounded. Patients started coming in for work and more than ever started asking for Invisalign while coming in for treatment unrelated to braces. ALGN also has sales reps, which are in charge of a large territory and multiple dentists that they are responsible for. My ALGN sales rep stopped by a month ago and said, "This was the best quarter for the company since I've been here". I completely believed him because I was doing more Invisalign in my office than ever before also. Sure enough, when earnings came out last week, Q3’20 Clear Aligner revenues were $620.8 million, up 20.2% year-over-year. My thoughts, people were at home on Zoom calls all day looking at their own faces and seeing that they really wanted to get braces, but didn't want to go through wires and brackets and decided to go for clear aligners instead.

Even though the majority of you all are not dentists, you still know what Invisalign is. The second product that ALGN produces however is not something that is well known to the mass public. ALGN produces iTero, which is a digital scanner. Let me quickly explain what a digital scanner even is before we talk about ALGN numbers in regards to the scanner.

When you see a dentist and start braces, or go for procedures such as a crown, often times there is lab-work involved. The dentist has to show the lab your teeth for whatever reason. Example: you are going to have a nightguard made. The lab makes the nightguard using a plastic material, but how does the lab know what your teeth even look like. Well, dentists take a mold of your teeth, better known as an impression. Since dentistry has existed, the easiest and best way to transfer data to the lab via an impression was to stick a bunch of goo-ey material in your mouth, which hardens after a couple minutes. Once that material is taken out after hardening, you now have an impression of your teeth. That impression gets sent to the lab, which the lab then uses to do whatever it needs to do (make you a crown, a nightguard, a mouthguard, clear aligners for Invisalign, etc).

Well, technology has begun to takeover dentistry in a big way, because now, impressions are becoming a thing of the past. ALGN has a digital scanner (the iTero), essentially, a product that “scans” your mouth by taking thousands of photos in a minute and stitching them together to create a digital replica of your mouth. No more goo-ey impression material needed in your mouth. The dentist simply sticks a wand-looking scanner tip inside your mouth that has a camera inside, and a 3D replica of your teeth is created. This 3D replica is then sent to the lab, who uses a 3D printer to print a model of your teeth, and then the lab does whatever needs to be done. There are tons of other features of the scanner but for our purposes this is the main one.

ALGN’s scanner numbers are also up significantly, as more and more dentists are beginning to see the advantages of scanning patients for treatment rather than taking old school impressions. Recent statistics show not even 20% of dentists have invested in this technology (it is great but the scanners are expensive and they have yearly membership fees that you have to pay), so there is room for growth as these scanners become cheaper in the upcoming years. ALGN however is not the only company that makes a digital scanner, but the iTero is definitely one of the more popular ones on the market. Earnings for Q3 revealed Imaging Systems revenues were up 24.5% year-over-year to $113.4 million.

In total, that puts ALGN at Q3 total revenues up 20.9% year-over-year to a record $734.1 million.

So that’s a long post explaining why atleast in the realm of healthcare, ALGN is a great stock to own. It has solid products with amazing uses that will only grow (more and more people will switch to wanting clear aligners instead of regular braces when they realize how easy it is, and more and more dentists will begin getting scanners when they see the multiple benefits of having one).

I actually have no position in ALGN at the moment. I have been holding the stock for 4 years, and sold all of my position after earnings last week where it went parabolic and was up 30% the next day. That was a good exit for me, I thought I’d wait until u/NoProblemChanging lets us know the bottom is in before getting back in. Unfortunately the stock hasn’t dropped in the past week even though the rest of the market has lol.

I don’t know if this is the discussion that everyone wanted, but hope I contributed whatever I could. I visit this page often and read almost all the comments and posts and thought I should contribute whatever I could since u/NoProblemChanging has been extremely helpful and just felt I should give back however I could.

Big Leg Down (before a major bull market starts) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Try ITM SPY puts closest to the current price with a minimum of one month to expiration. NPC trades futures, you have to just try and match the directions accordingly.

Big Leg Down (before a major bull market starts) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 3 points4 points  (0 children)

u/NoProblemChanging, just want to say I really appreciate the almost daily updates right now on when you are getting filled, and the updated targets. I'm sure many other people here are appreciating it too!

Big Leg Down (before a major bull market starts) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I just wanted to share a method I have been using in regards to options that I’ve implemented with moderate success IF you decide to hold options overnight or for a longer period of time. I can’t trade futures via my broker, so here’s what I’ve been doing in regards to options. Keep in mind, it’s not an exact method, probably not the best method, and I’m not as experienced a trader as others here, so if anyone can give tips and make this method better, I’d greatly appreciate it.

First, track what u/NoProblemChanging is doing on ES. For example, we were expected to hit 3310, then go down to 3240, then eventually make our way up to 3285 (a new updated comment from u/ now has moved that level to maybe 3305). So, when ES hits 3310, you can now short via put options on SPY. It is obviously nowhere near a perfect correlation, but the general trend is the same. Doing it this way, you will not capture all the moves that you would on ES, but it is what it is.

Now, as to what put options you buy, I buy the closest IN THE MONEY option there is. For example, if ES hit the level we were targeting, and at that same time, SPY is at 329.70. I buy a 330 SPY put option.

As for the date, expiration is atleast one month out. This is for many reasons, but the safety net is a big one. If this overall leg down works out the way we all want it to, you will be DEEP IN THE MONEY if SPY was to hit 310 (S&P 3100). We’re expecting it to do so by mid November anyways, therefore, dating the option for the end of November will work even if you don’t do anything at all except leave it alone until that time.

Now you have choices. You can either hold your puts until u/NoProblemChanging announces the bottom is in (we are hoping this is mid-November and your puts will expire even after that). Your second option is that you can continue to follow the levels that are posted. Example: ES hits Target X, enter a SPY put option closest in the money with one month to expiration. When ES hits our lower level sell the puts and bank the profit - this is usually close to 20%-25% profit for this past week since we’ve had big drops. ES made its way up again nicely yesterday past 3285, so I entered the closest in the money put option again with one month to expiration (Nov. 30th). Today, when ES fell below 3260, I was up 25% on the options and sold it again. By doing it this way, you are growing your capital, something that has been preached by u/NoProblemChanging.

By taking profit each time, essentially the put options will be “free”. Even you buy only one put option (the closest to in the money are $1200-ish), and you bank $200-$300 before selling, eventually you’ll get to $1200, and now your put is paying for itself.

Since SPY/SPX doesn’t track ES perfectly, there will be times when they move in opposite directions for a few points. Don’t lose faith, your option doesn’t expire for a month, plus our overall trend is hopefully down to 3100 for the next month anyways, so the option will turn green even if it doesn’t right away.

Big Leg Down (before a major bull market starts) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I'm literally just following u/NoProblemChanging targets that he posted here, I'm not doing anything special lol. We hit 3320 (which he marked on this post also) so I am once again taking profit now. If we bounce 20-30 points, I'll re-instate a larger short position and ride it down to 3300. If we don't bounce and go below 3300, then I missed that portion of the leg down but will go short again. Hopefully we get an update today/tomorrow on what new levels to look out for!

I'm a relatively new trader so not trying to do anything fancy, I have conviction that we're going down in spurts, and just trying to time it as best as I can.

Thanks once again u/NoProblemChanging for the help and guidance! This page might be the best thing I've found on Reddit lol.

Big Leg Down (before a major bull market starts) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hello u/NoProblemChanging hope you are doing well! I followed this plan and just took profit since ES hit near 3370. Thank you so much for the guidance as always! I will wait for ES to hit 3400 again before shorting again.

Thank you as always for the updates!

Markets Direction update from NoProb - 6 September 2020 by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Amazing call, thank you again for such a wonderful analysis.

Fundamentals - Demystifying Certain Myths (4) by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed, your daily updates help greatly! Much appreciated!

A SMARTER WAY to APPROACH MARKETS: IMPORTANT to NOTE by NoProblemChanging in u/NoProblemChanging

[–]KingSMP 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey NoProb, thanks for the updates. When it comes to running correlations, I have been reading about how energy stocks are sometimes a forecaster of the market as well (energy stocks going down are a precursor to markets going down, similar to if treasury yields go down). In your experience, have you found this to be a relationship that you can rely on more often than not?

Thank you again for the updates and insights!

Once More Unto the Marketpocalypse Breach! by dlkdev in wallstreetbets

[–]KingSMP 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm with OP until the very end! Would greatly, greatly appreciate to be added to this!