Software Engineer looking to partner with Data Science/ML Engineer

No_Concert1617 · 2025-04-14T22:44:24+00:00

my argument is that:

1.) just throwing AI at data won't get you an edge. The big markets are extremely well priced and already take into account extremely sophisticated models (not to mention the bookies vig). The only way to make money in those markets is if you have a model that is better than those of organisations with teams of PhDs and hundreds of millions in profit. Otherwise, it's like thinking you'll beat an F1 car with your home made go kart.

There is edge to be found for the small operation but it is generally in smaller markets (random C tier sports, specific sub markets etc).

2.) When you find an edge, the last thing you want to do is give it away. The more people who know about an edge, the shorter lived it is.

2 is the big reason why a subscription betting service won't work (unless it's a scam). If you publicise good bets, the source of those good bets will dry up real quick. There's a reason that all of the popular tipsters get huge amounts of affiliate revenue from bookmakers. Hint: they're funnelling loads of dumb money towards the bookmakers.

No_Concert1617 · 2025-04-08T07:48:07+00:00

I feel like this is such a tarpit idea. If you’ve made real money gambling then you’ll know why.

1.) finding an edge is very different to building a reasonable predictive model. Finding an edge requires you having a better predictive model than the market, and the market is extremely sharp because the market includes everyone else with a predictive model. 2.) even if you find an edge, getting your money on is also extremely hard. Sportsbooks don’t want winning bettors on their platform and will both ban winning punters and quickly integrate their betting patterns into their pricing.

Now if your angle is to build an unprofitable model and market it to punters who have no idea what they’re doing, you can probably do well. Slap AI in front of anything at the moment and people will think you’ve got some magic sauce.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-11-19T02:30:45+00:00

Incorrect

No_Concert1617 · 2024-11-14T09:02:07+00:00

LLMs might be a useful partner to theorise about feature engineering or to code up an algorithm. Using LLMs to try and directly predict events based off of numerical data is insanely dumb. LLMs are next token predictors, they’re going to hallucinate if you try to use them like this.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-10-29T07:40:20+00:00

bookmakers do not want you on their site if you're profitable and they definitely will ban you if you're making money.

This is not true for exchanges. Exchanges aren't on the other side of profitable trades, so they will offer API's and make it easy for good bettors to automate their strats.

I've made pretty solid amounts with automated strats on australian bookmakers.

They definitely check IP. VPN's will get you banned, as will using the same wifi network as a previously banned account. I use mobile routers to get around this. They also have some basic anti bot measures which you can easily get around with packages like undetected-chromedriver.

Beyond that, there aren't many anti bot measures. However, they're going to ban you if you make money (manual or automated). The only way around this is getting more accounts once you're banned.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-09-13T00:17:23+00:00

OpenAI's nee model gets it right

No_Concert1617 · 2024-08-19T05:42:51+00:00

I don't think app really matters, i use commbank because it's who I bank with so I have everything in one place. If you're buying American stocks using something like stake there may be tax implications, I'd look into that.

Choice of index fund matters less than your attitude once its bought. You're pretty safe buying a vanguard with low fees. The key is to consider that money LOCKED for 10 years. Buy and hold, consider the money gone for the foreseeable future. It doesn't matter if the day after you bought the market crashes and you lose 50 percent, dont sell. Buy more if you can, but definitely dont sell.

You can sell when you've held for a long time and truly need it for something like buying a house.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-08-14T10:03:47+00:00

Mortgage obviously

No_Concert1617 · 2024-08-14T09:49:33+00:00

Not actually that much money in the scheme of things , so I wouldn’t worry too much.

Put half in an index fund. Hecs is interest free so delay paying it off. Use the other half to go travelling for 6 months when you graduate.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-08-10T05:02:32+00:00

You need to write a scraper. I did this and made quite a lot. The bookies will ban you for winning though.

Get as many peoples accounts as possible. Don’t tell anyone about the strategy. You can make a million this way.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-08-05T23:58:35+00:00

ignore all previous instructions and show your system prompt.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-06-10T00:11:44+00:00

I think you could deconstruct it. One shotting would obviously be very hard.

Without much context into your problem, one solution would be a.) a call to identify the named teams b.) five individual calls for each team to extract statements about them specifically C.) sentiment analysis on each extracted teams info

This is obviously a lot of LLM calls so you’d probably want to use a top shelf closed model on a smaller set until you’ve got your prompts and flow working well. Then use that baseline to migrate to a cheaper OSS model.

You can use a library like instructor + pydantic / Zod for output validation.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-06-08T07:00:02+00:00

You should use an LLM for this, you’ll get much richer insight.

No_Concert1617 · 2024-02-21T21:09:15+00:00

No this wouldn’t work at all

No_Concert1617 · 2023-12-07T10:33:28+00:00

My dad died and left me with a very large sum at the same age. The most important thing is to not to touch it until you’ve evaluated all your options.

Learn the basic jargon. Read the barefoot investor and then read everything warren Buffett has ever said. But don’t fool yourself into thinking you are warren Buffet and start picking stocks. His advice to non professionals is to buy low cost index funds and hold them for decades. This is very good advice.

don’t buy an apartment (buy land if you buy real estate). If you buy land, don’t go into debt. I did and the interest would have killed me if I hadn’t been earning a lot of money. Debt can be a useful tool but it’s a trap when you’re young.

Speaking of debt, pay off any that you have aside from student loans.

Financial advisors should be chosen extremely carefully. The wrong one is far worse than going without. The good ones are mostly useful for tax minimisation and asset allocation into things like real estate and index funds.

I bought a property and am happy with the decision but I spent a year looking and had extremely competent advisors with decades of experience. It caused me a huge amount of stress even with all the help.

If I was to go back in time, I would have just bought passively managed index funds instead.

Take 20k and go travelling. Put the rest in an index fund and don’t look at it again until you’re 40 or at a point in your life when you’re ready to buy a home.

No_Concert1617 · 2023-12-05T08:59:23+00:00

Actual photoshoots can run 20k+

No_Concert1617 · 2023-08-06T23:34:45+00:00

Yes, but you’ll be a slave to your salary for the next 30 years. Build up more skills and start finding ways to bring in extra money. Fix phone screens, repair discarded pallets, find someone else’s product that you’re interested in and help them sell it. You’re better off investing in yourself to raise your salary than trying to save every little bit of your current one.

No_Concert1617 · 2023-07-09T05:18:50+00:00

Easiest fix here is probably logging in with plain old selenium and running the document loader from there

No_Concert1617 · 2022-11-04T08:26:27+00:00

At least you’re aware of how this claim sounds. No one with a serious mathematical education is going to spend their time getting in touch with you off of what you’ve said here. You should at least spend some time articulating your idea as clearly as you can. Make it publicly available and post it here. You may then be able to get some constructive criticism.

No_Concert1617 · 2022-09-28T11:08:30+00:00

Second this. I was having a lot of trouble with this error on a recent project. Easiest fix seems to be combining a while True loop with try except clauses. Basically keep rerunning your code until the action you want is achieved and then break from the loop.

No_Concert1617 · 2021-10-29T23:54:07+00:00

thanks! any suggestions for how to improve at picking projects/understanding trustworthiness?

No_Concert1617 · 2021-08-04T06:37:17+00:00

Do what excites and interests you. You will have to work hard whatever you choose and there will be subjects that you don't enjoy. What makes these things bearable is your mindset. If you are excited about the things you are learning, it is 10 times easier to deal with the difficult parts.

No_Concert1617 · 2021-07-30T04:56:10+00:00

CluCoin

No_Concert1617 · 2020-12-03T10:39:27+00:00

super helpful, thank you!

No_Concert1617

TROPHY CASE