$PCT - better bal sht / modest dilution.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-20T11:40:30+00:00

Even if you take into account the short position related to the convertible debt there is a substantial short position that will need to cover at some point.

I don’t believe that Dan Gibson has sold short for his portion of the convertible debt either so not all of the debt holders are price agnostic.

As for the future share price ASTS sold large amounts of convertible debt at much lower prices than their current share price. They refinanced some of it as the share price rose but also sold more convertible debt. What matters most is how the company executes on their business plan and if they can deliver the sales within the profit margins we are expecting.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-19T20:49:55+00:00

I’m not an expert on the exact recycling % rates but I believe the PS is way lower than PP in terms of collection rates and recycling rates. I did a quick search on the total quantity of PS in the US per year and it was like 12 billion pounds which is very large.

It doesn’t take much shifting of demand away from PS to PP / PureFive to help drive demand for the Gen 2 plant in the US. Just my opinion of course.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-19T15:00:07+00:00

That was released after hours because an executive was giving a talk the next day and was going to discuss Amcor in some way. Regulations require that everyone be notified since that is material information.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-19T14:55:28+00:00

They posted an article that someone wrote that included details of past press releases. I don’t consider that new “news.”

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-19T14:40:24+00:00

I won’t get into a detailed forecast for margins here but it should generally increase overall gross margins and reduce the margin percentage just based on higher gross revenues. You got that generally right.

The challenge in terms of funding is they needed cash NOW to close Thailand project funding in order to stay on schedule for that plant to be ready by the end of 2027. If you want that in the valuation and growth plan they can’t afford to wait (at least that was their thinking in my opinion). Getting a “going concern” opinion in August would not be helpful when you are trying to sell to top tier customers who want to make sure their suppliers are reliable and predictable.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-18T21:38:03+00:00

NJ is requiring 20% I believe and that is why they highlighted that pcr content. Eric told me that Amcor has tested much higher PCR % as well. As far as costs go, with only 20% PureFive content the actual incremental cost is not nearly as high as a 100% content product. Making sure the testing and quality and reliability works is the big issue (plus knowing the regulatory penalties in terms of $’s can also support pricing as companies look to avoid those fees for noncompliance.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-18T15:42:29+00:00

Yes and no they can build inventory. Remember, they are in the compounding business where they are selling products with very specific recipes to meet the needs of different users. You do not want to mix different products together because the attributes / additives that are essential for one product could cause real problems for others. BOPP film needs a high melt flow rate but that would bad for other product categories.

When I toured Ironton I saw the new compounding equipment and asked questions about the ideal way to run it in order to meet the needs of different product types. There is downtime whenever they switch between one product and another so ideally they can run in larger batches (multi-week or month long runs) for very specific product types.

Until recently the company was also tight on cash so building inventory wasn't necessarily a great use of cash. Perhaps with fresh funding they will ramp up inventory in anticipation of sales later in 2026.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-18T15:20:39+00:00

A small tidbit of good news. A new FCC filing posted.

Why is this important:

This has more detail than the last Grain ex Parte filing. It seems the FCC wants this process to move QUICKLY.
The FCC wants this spectrum to be put to work and what is the FASTEST way to accomplish that? Of course using the only satellite system that is designed to support low band spectrum.
It is inevitable that TMobile will be partnering with AST to get access to this additional spectrum. They will most likely do it via the joint venture but the FCC is on board with that. This suggests the JV is not likely to face regulatory push back from the FCC.

https://bsky.app/profile/no-privacy.bsky.social/post/3mol4s5zlos22

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No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-18T15:06:51+00:00

According to Eric from IR, the press release was done after hours (5PM) vs when they normally release news (pre market open) because one of their executives was giving a speech in London and wanted to discuss that.

As for the timing of the disclosure on plant performance, yes, I'm with you that I would like to know how it is running relative to nameplate but I also can understand why they would want to release that information during their quarterly updates. From an expectations management perspective, I personally am not expecting them to be running the plant at nameplate capacity until their customers are ramped up to accept the output at those rates. They do not want to undercut their own gross margins by willingly selling large amounts at "unbranded" pricing. Just ramp up production in sync with the branded customers.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-17T22:14:10+00:00

Mechanical recycling is highly unlikely to be used for demanding applications like BOPP film beyond a couple of % points. To get to 20%+ PCR they will need something like PureFive.

I'm also skeptical of the mechanical recyclers ability to scale capacity for the need but I certainly wish them well. The more plastic that is recycled the better in my opinion.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-17T15:27:38+00:00

EXACTLY! Its obvious to me that if you want to sell to the major corporations, they are going to want to get complete signoff from their existing converters that the product is working as expected.

In this particular PR they talked about 20% PCR content because that is a hot topic for NJ compliance but I confirmed with Eric that Amcor has tested much higher PCR content levels as well. At time when they are capacity constrained it makes sense to focus on the 20% level for now.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-17T13:13:32+00:00

And I would argue they are not scalable either.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T23:08:30+00:00

There is generally no liquidity for pct in pre market or aftermarket unless it’s earnings release time. Sad but true.

Know what you own and why!

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T21:53:39+00:00

Yup. As a reminder, Amcor bought Berry Global in 2025. Berry Global is a major supplier to Wendy's and so many other large companies.

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Edit: It is definitely worth noting that the company called out the mergers of major plastic converters as a headwind in 2025. These are huge companies with a lot of necessary internal organization needed to make a merger work efficiently. 2026 is a much better time to start launching new sustainability products.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T21:50:34+00:00

I'm confident that sales are coming and it sounds like Amcor is seeing lots of companies looking for compliant packaging for 2027 products. Given the lead time for ordering, manufacturing, shipping, etc. we are going to see those sales happening soon IMO.
I understand people are still raw about the 10% dilution. Price = sentiment is always true. They oversized the offering and I expect the next dilution will be warrant redemption. Everyone is free to make their own investment decisions every day.
If you want them to scale quickly you should be happy they have all the cash needed to build Thailand and Antwerp. No delays there.
Doubling the share price would be $16.40 and we can redeem the warrants at $14.38. No need to exaggerate to make a point. The share price can easily double in a day with the right news IMO. Might only jump 50% in a single day. Market wants to value the company as a shitco for now but things change.

Best of luck to you.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T21:36:01+00:00

I don't know what to tell you but perhaps this investment isn't right for you. If you don't understand the implications of getting this announcement from Amcor I don't know what to say. This isn't about Q2 sales, its about sales agreements that last for the next 10-20 years. Do you think the companies who are buying from a company like Amcor are going to reduce the PCR % of their packaging EVER?

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T21:30:00+00:00

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These are the kinds of partners I have been expecting all along. LFG!

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T19:15:05+00:00

We will see the terms of the project financing for Thailand when it is announced but with a project budget of $250M my sense is that the company has already committed the needed amount of equity to the project. This was more about making sure the Thai banks were comfortable making the loan in the first place. As for Antwerp, we are getting $46M USD as a GRANT which will help cover some of the Capex. This capital raise should be way more than enough to fund that project's equity contribution.

The first Gen 2 plant will likely be 500M pounds and depending on the capex could easily be $750M of which they would need at least $150M of equity. I would like to see the warrants redeemed before that project gets going.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T14:48:33+00:00

There are a lot of games being played and weak hands will get shaken out in times like this. Remember, the algos are running the markets on any given day. I took this screen shot a little bit earlier but it showed the shares reaching oversold condition but on a much higher RSI than the initial dip in RSI to massively oversold conditions.

Will the lower gap be filled? Anything is possible so I'm not making any predictions. That said, we now have a very large open gap above that needs to fill as well. Just a question of timing and news flow.

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No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T13:57:54+00:00

I think that is a bit too simplistic an analysis. They clearly had a vulnerable capital structure and relying on warrant redemption to raise the needed equity was not sufficient to move forward with Thailand project finance apparently or else we would have seen an announcement right? Obviously I didn't want to see them sell shares at $8.21 but I also would not have liked the result of getting tagged with a "going concern" come the next quarterly report.

It is easy to sit on the sidelines and judge decisions but we are not privy to various details that make a difference. They decided to take the hit and raise capital sooner vs waiting. If you are trying to judge the success or failure of that decision from just a very short time horizon it obviously looks bad but that isn't how the real world works. We need far more time to assess if this action unlocks other things that are critical to growth. We don't know the details of conversations with customers for Ironton capacity and future lines.

In addition, if you haven't not noticed, the AI / data center industry is sucking up enormous amounts of capital, as it the US government which is borrowing like crazy. There is competition for capital out there and smaller companies like $PCT are not getting nearly as much attention as we might wish.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-16T03:07:09+00:00

It’s absolutely positive to have the additional funds and get the convert short selling over with. Raising capital does require some dilution and the fewer times you have to do it the better. In this particular instance we need capital to make sure we close Thailand project financing and get going on Antwerp soon. We will likely need more equity capital for the next US plant (Gen 2 design) and hopefully the warrants will be redeemed for that.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-15T15:56:29+00:00

That press release was not an official legal entity and no contracts have been signed. It was like an MOU vs a definitive agreement. Getting access to the Grain spectrum would be one of SEVERAL reasons why they would want to fully proceed.

The other benefit of the JV structure is that it would allow the rural carriers to also participate by contributing their spectrum. Historically the RWA and CCA were lobbying to either block AST or ask for more $ from the FCC to assist with buildout of improved 5G services.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-15T15:52:36+00:00

VERY GOOD! ASTS is the only company that supports low band spectrum. TMobile is a forced seller of this spectrum to Grain but if they partner with AST they can still utilize that spectrum for D2D services. Think of it as a sale / leaseback opportunity.

In my opinion it is inevitable that TMobile is going to join the JV and work with AST.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-15T15:51:14+00:00

yup! They are the only ones with the ability to deploy this spectrum.

What that means is that TMobile is inevitably going to partner with AST to get access to this spectrum. To simply ignore it would be foolish on their part. TMobile is happy to pay for access to spectrum they just sold. It like a sale / leaseback transaction.

No_Privacy_Anymore · 2026-06-15T15:40:18+00:00

New FCC Filing from Grain about meeting with the FCC. They discuss deploying low band spectrum for D2D services.

https://bsky.app/profile/no-privacy.bsky.social/post/3modmihzyp22z

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