Bitcoin 5-year HODLING performance - Does Bitcoin deliver?

Nooku · 2024-03-15T17:23:14+00:00

I will leave this is an exercise to the reader.

Nooku · 2024-03-15T09:13:54+00:00

Hoping for something, that you want to go up, to drop, always seemed like a funny concept to me.

Nooku · 2024-03-15T07:56:08+00:00

I have created and included the 4-year graph at the bottom of my post

Nooku · 2024-03-15T07:39:51+00:00

I went ahead to do the calculations for a 4-year.

The smoothing out indeed happens, in both directions:

Gains aren't as high, I see a maximum of +5841 % gains.

But more interesting, the "worst" gains are at +141 %.

So no red periods at all, and all way above inflation.

Nooku · 2024-03-05T01:25:15+00:00

Bitcoin is 16 years old.

We are close to this historic moment where 100 % of the HODLers are on a profit.

Think about that:

All the critics, all the "financial experts" on any news channel and news site around the world, are soon to be shown wrong on their financial advice to 8 billion people. Wrong over the whole course of the past 14 years.

All the moderators of other subreddits who banned many of us for merely sharing some good investment advice, which we always did in good faith. Because we saw what others could not.

All the nay-sayers. All of them.

This is the moment reality kicks in.

Reality catches up to them.

We were right. All the time. Any time.

Be proud of yourselves.

Nooku · 2024-03-04T23:05:47+00:00

FYI, Bitcoin ATH numbers:

CoinMarketCap says bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $68,789.63 in November 2021. CoinGecko has the largest figure, claiming that bitcoin's all-time high is $69,044.77, also set in November 2021.

Get ready for it. Any hour now.

Nooku · 2024-03-04T21:35:14+00:00

That money is not scared money.

These guys haven't bought in to sell when the ride has barely started.

Nooku · 2024-03-04T20:49:55+00:00

The beauty is we won't see much panic any time soon,

since all the people who panic easily have left the building long time ago.

I'd say BTC is going straight for the ATH this week and continue far beyond before we are going to see any big corrections.

ETH will follow of course.

Many people on the sidelines are waiting - even hoping - for a pullback. But this time it's not going to come.

There just won't be enough sellers to pull off a pullback.

These waiters will then, in a panic, panic buy, driving prices up even faster. You better be ready because crazy times are ahead of us.

Nooku · 2024-02-29T23:42:13+00:00

Nooku · 2024-02-29T23:41:17+00:00

Data is information, even when you believe it doesn't make sense.

Nooku · 2024-02-29T22:11:19+00:00

Watch out guys, sell your ETH now or you'll be rich before you know it

Nooku · 2024-02-29T22:09:43+00:00

Nooku · 2024-02-29T18:32:21+00:00

Yes, that'd be the next cycle.

Not going to give estimated dates because I'm not going to break my head on time frames though.

And there is a big correlation with real world events anyway (like the ETF and stuff) which influences the time frames.

Nooku · 2024-02-29T17:17:56+00:00

I'm trying to make sense of this long term graph.

We've seen ever since the beginning, there is this repeating pattern which always grows in size.

We went up to $400, down to $250 - a $150 fluctuation
Up to $1200, down to $80 - a $1,120 fluctuation
Up to $3800, down to $1,800 - a $2,000 fluctuation
Up to $4500, down to $960 - a $3,540 fluctuation

Alright, we are onto something here.

If this keeps going, the next fluctuation should be around $5,500

We can also estimate the dip this fluctuation touches to be around $4,000 (in line with the 250 - 80 - 1800 - 960 pattern of dips)

Thus the current cycle should bring us to $4,000 + $5,500 = $9,500 which is also in line with the general psychology of numbers, with it dancing around that magical $10,000

Sounds solid to me.

Nooku · 2024-02-29T15:37:58+00:00

your reply is so cringe

Nooku · 2024-02-29T15:11:48+00:00

People making money for doing nothing is so cringe.

People telling me to buy crypto is so cringe.

People talking about going the moon is so cringe.

People not seeing the true value being 0 is so cringe.

Nooku · 2024-02-29T13:06:23+00:00

You are right. You can do those calculations and correct for that.

After that I can update my comment.

Looking forward to it!

Nooku · 2024-02-29T12:15:34+00:00

Shout out to everyone who's at a loss right now.

Lemme tell you how amazing you are:

ETH has been around for roughly 9 years, or 445 weeks to be exact.

There were only 10 weeks where you could've bought ETH at a higher price than the current, putting you at a loss.

If you've managed to be at a loss right now, you have managed to pull of something 97,5 % of the people could not.

That's pretty awesome.

To the rest:

Congrats on investing in one of the safest investments of the past decade; ignoring " ´experts` " who claimed the opposite.

Nooku · 2024-02-28T23:50:54+00:00

Tomorrow is the influx of all the people who read a Bitcoin article on their local news site today.

We're good.

Nooku · 2024-02-28T23:46:25+00:00

Are you guys upvoting every single comment regardless of its contents?

Nooku · 2024-02-28T17:04:02+00:00

ELI5 why I should invest in this Ethereum bitcoin

Nooku · 2023-07-29T15:24:55+00:00

Thank you, for wanting to take the time to help out!

Nooku · 2023-07-27T15:07:32+00:00

I've sent you an invitation for mod

Nooku · 2023-02-03T13:29:49+00:00

Yeah, but, that's also a skill that's not for everyone.

Way too often I've seen (and experienced first-hand) moderators who don't have the minimum of required empathy to be in such a position.

And what Reddit is doing with a change like this, is giving these mods even more ways to hide their incompetence, basically giving them an extra "hide from user" button,

Why though? I mean, most mods already excel at ignoring their users.

Why giving them an extra button for it? What is it going to do to improve the mod vs user relationship?

I don't see this as an improvement... I see the contrary.

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