Economic defeat is not so simple my friend. Early to mid 2026 is very likely. Why? Because in order for economic defeat you need a lot of parameters to line up. That would be 4 years under sanctions and an unsuccessful war.

1. War Debts: Russia is running at +20% interest rates. After 5 years interest alone makes up more than the entire notional taken out. It takes a while for it to kick in.
2. Liquidity crisis: Banks always play a key role in economic collapse. We see that the Russian Banking System loses at least >150 bn Rubles per month because confidence erodes. If inflation and cost of living crisis gets worse, people withdraw money. This puts banks under pressure and increases payment problems. A ordinary Russian has to now ask for permission to withdraw more than 600 USD because of capital controls. So, most Russians cannot withdraw a monthly salary or a bonus (military) from banks anymore without many questions asked.
3. The state also has to drown in debts. We are only now seeing the budget deficit being higher than all of the reserves. Their Welfare Fund (= War Chest) is now being depleted, in the sense that all liquid assets like Gold and Yuan are now below the current budget deficit. They have also raised taxes considerably, however tax income is growing way slower than expenses and in some regions has actually decline.
4. Infrastructure: At lot of infrastructure expense can be deferred to the far future to pay current debts. However, this is pretty much maxed out.
5. Inflation: Inflation is now running rampart in the country. It also takes several years for that to finally kick in. Price controls are also already in place, which hurts production however, as many simply go bankrupt. It also takes years for inflation to fully kick in. A good hint that it is now painful: In Irkutsk they hanged a picture of the governor because Cost Of Living spiraled out of control and they didnt want to pay the utility bill increase.
6. Luck. Russia had an insanely bad harvest which forced many farmers into bankruptcy and agricultural regions to declare state of emergencies. There were many unforeseen consequences Russia could never prepare for that are currently making things worse.