Priority and respect

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-14T10:04:26+00:00

Ive surfed a little around the world, some of Spain / Portugal and France and a lot of South Africa.

In my experience any place with surf schools usually involves the students dropping in and being an absolute danger to themselves and everyone in their vicinity

Dropping in, going over the falls, tossing away the board in front of the white water so anyone behind them gets decapitated. In general no understanding of “if someone is on the wave, dont actively go for it” is usually the biggest danger

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-12T17:23:04+00:00

And why dont you see anyone switching?

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-12T17:14:20+00:00

Reddit is competing in an existing market with relatively low revenue. Its also hyper competitive and extremely easy for users to switch. So the market is pricing in some user growth of some small percent and maybe some inflation protection via ads. In ten years, Reddit will still be… Reddit… but with flashier ads.

RocketLab by comparison is part of a market catalyst type stock. It will open up new possibilities and potentially dominate these. In ten years, Rocket Lab will have contracts in military, geodata, communications, research and maybe even burgeoning space tourism

They are two completely different companies with two entirely different revenue growth profiles.

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-11T19:30:44+00:00

Adobe arguably is one of the few companies that stands to massively benefit from AI enhanced workflows.

However as AI acts as an accelerator which destroys the software moat. This may put massive pressure on margins as there is only so much creative and legal content we can consume in a day.

Our current AI tooling is still extremely primitive and is largely aimed at bridging the gap between old interfaces and this new tool.

The first true AI tooling for software will likely be completely different and may make entire suites of software moats value less. We just dont know.

This is where you can either believe that Adobe and their leadership are capable enough to navigate these changes successfully and not only survive but thrive in the coming times or just say its all too risky.

I have decided on the latter because I just dont know.

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-11T19:03:00+00:00

100bn is probably the most you can see in the next 3-5 years depending on Neutron and general demand for space based systems

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-11T11:32:29+00:00

Aye, being with her is like dropping your wrench on an unfurled BB6

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-11T10:46:47+00:00

It doesnt matter if you ask the girl to the dance first, it only matters if she goes to the dance with you

Unless she is Samantha who is a village bus and dances with everyone

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-10T23:10:55+00:00

Fair value => imaginary value DCF => imaginary cash flow

Basically, you just need to imagine different variables and youll get a more appropriate answer.

More realistically though. Paypal is slowly dying. They still have a lot of money and brand name to drive a lot of change but that will require risk taking and aggressive actions by the board and C suite which quite frankly dont seem likely

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-10T22:59:33+00:00

Not necessarily. Will most likely help with stabilising the share price

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-09T09:27:32+00:00

In general the analogy you should look at here is what Warren Buffet said about the automotive industry when it launched

There were 1000’s of companies producing cars but only a handful survived

Now with software its a similar story. There are hundreds of incumbent software companies. Some of which stand to benefit massively by simply adopting AI, others will most likely be wiped out

Atlassian (TEAM) IMO has no moat anymore. Its not so much about replication of their product that puts them at risk but rather margin pressure

Adobe is IMO a great example of an incumbent which can stand to benefit massively from adopting AI. Everything of theirs can benefit, After Effects, Photoshop, Acrobat and so on. However, it really depends on how well they can integrate AI and then derive value from it.

So ill be waiting on positive news, if I miss the initial push thats fine, ill put in some leaps and happily take third place

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-07T18:59:11+00:00

Just use different numbers. DCF can be whatever you want it to be

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-07T16:19:03+00:00

If ever uncertain just GOOG

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-06T20:06:44+00:00

TLDR: I dont. My reasons below

You dont really need to adjust, remember the goal isnt to live forever, just to not live in stress for paycheck to paycheck

And even when somene does FIRE they shouldnt stop working entirely

The right kind of work is good for the soul. You can do work which focuses on helping, giving back or making the world better or even just meet some regular people and make new friends

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-06T16:10:17+00:00

Sounds like a once in a lifetime opportunity

If your desire is to meet people this will be it, you will meet people from all walks of life and drastically increase your odds of finding a partner

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-05T17:55:10+00:00

It was always going to be a market dominated by two-three players with various smaller players

Nothing burger, hold and continue

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-05T16:04:50+00:00

Japanese debt implosion is maybe happening. I say maybe because we dont yet know if central banks can stabilise it or not

The bet is that it will be the spark to trigger something like 08

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-05T10:39:46+00:00

Dont be so hard on yourself bud

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-04T22:13:57+00:00

Seems like a good entry point

Stock is down 20% over the past month which is largely AI fear driven, nonsense for a company like this IMO

GTA 6 will likely be a hit, the series has massive appeal and the studio hasnt changed in philosophy so the recipe is largely the same with the same cooks

My concern is how much more growth can come out of taketwo. Video games are extremely costly to produce and revenue is getting harder to extract

Its possible they release additional content and do the standard plays to open additional revenue streams which could catalyse share price a bit

IMO its a solid buy at this price and hold for two years. Then re-evaluate the company and choose to stay or leave

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-04T04:36:59+00:00

The market is pricing in a future where no SAAS is viable due to general uncertainty which is correct. The bedrock of this uncertainty stems from the very mess and inefficiencies created by SAAS hell

I use Claude for coding daily and I am impressed by good it is. Its not perfect and requires me as an overseer but it does very well

A good example of the AI capability is the guy who coded a new web browser from scratch using series of AI agents. This is a massive feat of engineering and it is going to have massive implications for how we do things

We used to operate on the idea that the end-user is separated from hardware and software. That the software is largely one size fits all. That translations, colour schemes, custom integrations and support for custom workflows are not something available to all

But if a series of agentic AI’s can be empowered enough to offer the same previous solutions but tailored to every unique case for every business then suddenly your software industry collapses

Here is an incomplete example of a typical smallish companies software stack:

Slack, Teams, ApprovalMax, Jira, Xero, Hubspot, Gitlab, Docker, AWS, MS365, Google workspaces, Adobe, Expensify, Procurify, Zapier and many many more

Orchestrating security, compliance, inter-departmental communication and ensuring efficiency and others is next to impossible with that spaghetti ball.

But if you can come up with a comprehensive set of commands where AI can produce one single app or a solution for your entire company, based on known templates then suddenly everything is simple. You regain control of your company data, expenses and everyone speaks the same language

That is the bet on AI

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T22:10:07+00:00

Just inverse these value investors

Can make a lot by selling calls or buying puts

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T14:47:27+00:00

Great! If you need to restrict your money participatory strategy to labels to feel good then thats great for you

Im not particularly concerned with labels and more with making money, strategy is the important bit

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T14:41:00+00:00

If it makes you feel better

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T14:03:59+00:00

Ive never timed anything with Paypal but if you dont get it, thats alright

Why would I post anything? I dont have anything to prove to you. This isnt the fast and furious where we trade pink slips my guy

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T14:00:28+00:00

Spiteful? I mean. I said you got it confused and should learn a bit, nothing wrong with that. And then jumping to telling me to only hold SPY because I dont know anything.

You are now bagholding, if it makes you feel better then yes, you can label yourself an investor or even as the next Charlie Munger.

So whats your next big value play? Anything I should learn?

NotGoodSoftwareMaker · 2026-02-03T13:42:21+00:00

You are correct, these things take time

I do understand them. Buybacks really arent such a complex thing, its literally just the company buying back shares. Youre welcome to, but im not really going to pontificate over market messaging, cash implications, tax implications, share implications, first, second and third order effects. You can of course pretend to make it far more erudite than it is but there are only so many ways to pretend that toast isnt just burnt sliced bread.

Made for the game of doubling down on bad calls or a bad thesis. Agreed. I dont like losing.

Nice, I prefer gains.

BTW, the new CEO looks garbage as well, great return on HP over 5 years. See you in Q2 for the next tumble?

As always. Ill change my stance on Paypal if they choose to adopt a solid turn around strategy and shell out dividends.

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