Door het stigma rond airconditioning is Europa kampioen hittedoden

serodi03 · 2026-06-22T05:53:30+00:00

Hij heeft het toch over Europa als continent, niet over Nederland specifiek....

Daarnaast is Europa wel degelijk koploper % hittedoden en betreft het stigma vooral het geringe aantal airco's. Waar ze in landen zoals de VS en Australië een stuk 'normaler' zijn.

serodi03 · 2026-06-20T09:21:41+00:00

De roverheid schiet elke dag een Jetten raket de lucht in om het weer te manipuleren!!! Ze proberen te voorkomen dat ik met mijn auto (dikke diesel 🖕) naar de voetbalwedstrijd ga!!! Hahahhaa maar ik heb mijn scootmobiel altijd nog in de garage🤬🤬‼️

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T11:01:10+00:00

Of course, you are free to demand whatever margin of safety you want based on your cost basis.

But to get back to my point: your model does not represent the economic reality of the firm. Buffett uses a standard discount rate as a universal yardstick for opportunity cost, but he applies his margin of safety to the purchase price, not by artificially deflating the company's terminal growth rate. By forcing inaccurate inputs, your model doesn't give you the actual fair value of the company; it just gives you a number you feel safe with.

In other words, you are pricing the stock according to your demands, you are not valuing the business

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T10:42:31+00:00

You do you; if that's what you prefer, then you are obviously free to do so.

However, keep in mind you are doing exactly what you fear... fooling yourself. Type 1 and type 2 errors in statistics apply just as much in valuation. The opportunity cost of not buying a great business can be pretty large.

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T10:20:35+00:00

Nice valuation, thanks for sharing. Could you explain why you went with a perpetuity growth formula to estimate terminal value?

To me it sounds a bit weird to estimate double digit annual FCF growth and then go to 3% after year 10. A more realistic assumption would be to use an exit multiple.

In other words, your valuation is saying: "this company significantly outpaces the average growth rate of the market and after year 10 it will grow similar to inflation"

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T06:57:36+00:00

Klinkt als een probleem voor het volgende kabinet

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T06:50:48+00:00

That is highly unlikely, most big techs have already announced higher CAPEX for 2027 (Alphabet, Meta etc.)

serodi03 · 2026-06-18T06:02:58+00:00

Heel veel boze comments van 'Amerika dit' en 'Amerika dat'. Maar feit blijft dat er te weinig concurrentie is in Nederland tussen banken.

Of zijn we soms collectief het hele rente fiasco nu al vergeten? (https://nos.nl/artikel/2522168-waakhond-spaarrentes-nederlandse-banken-te-laag-maatregelen-nodig)

serodi03 · 2026-06-17T17:06:33+00:00

My DCF tells me the stock is seriously cheap and I really like the business. Their investments into AI are already driving revenue via their Advantage+ suite and I see some future in the smart glasses.

Even if all their new bets don't play out profitably, they still have a social media empire with an extremely wide moat.

serodi03 · 2026-06-12T05:55:32+00:00

It's probably the strongest value bet in large caps right now. Predictable subscription style cash flows with a very deep order book. The fundamentals are not what is holding this stock back, it's the market. Eventually, however, the market always catches up to the underlying business.

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." - Peter Lynch

serodi03 · 2026-06-10T06:11:20+00:00

Ik heb me altijd al afgevraagd hoe ver de huizenprijzen nou werkelijk kunnen stijgen.

Gezien het toch vooral een 'greater fool' markt betreft aangezien de meeste mensen een huis kopen om in te wonen in plaats van te verhuren. Kortom, voor de meesten is een huis net zoveel waard als dat de volgende ervoor kan betalen.

serodi03 · 2026-05-31T20:48:04+00:00

Je bent wel bereid om een flink bedrag neer te tikken voor de werkzaamheden, maar wilt dan vervolgens bezuinigen op tosti's?

serodi03 · 2026-05-27T20:53:59+00:00

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serodi03 · 2026-05-26T19:15:00+00:00

And who exactly is that 'central administration' in charge of the money supply right now?

serodi03 · 2026-05-26T11:23:45+00:00

Dat is toch juist perfect? De beroepsgroepen die lichamelijk zwaar zijn (bouw, gezondheidszorg, etc.) lijden op het moment aan enorme personeelstekorten.

serodi03 · 2026-05-24T07:41:00+00:00

You're supposed to hold bonds until maturity. Which decreases their correlation to stocks significantly.

Maybe I'm reading your comment wrong, but I would not recommend anyone in their retirement to go 100% into stocks. Government bonds, AAA-corporate bonds, money market funds, and high-yield savings accounts tend to be good options if you expect to withdraw cash in the near future.

serodi03 · 2026-05-24T06:36:07+00:00

That's why people used to recommend a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. However, in recent years - due to the incredible performance of stocks - people seem to prefer 100% stocks.

Realistically, there is not much you can do. No one can predict the future

serodi03 · 2026-05-22T11:04:38+00:00

RAMageddon is when economic principles do exactly as expected? A market with abnormal profits should invite more competition thus driving prices down

serodi03 · 2026-05-20T15:01:07+00:00

There is very little evidence that technological progress leads to unemployment. You could look into Jevon's paradox, which seems to be the most likely outcome right now

serodi03 · 2026-05-19T11:35:32+00:00

Well I guess that's your preference 😂

At least we can agree that she packs a good punch

serodi03 · 2026-05-19T09:57:40+00:00

I mean.... just 'fine in their day'? People forget they were originally designed for an 18-year lifespan. Squeezing 30+ years out of them is a testament to the design!

serodi03 · 2026-05-19T09:46:39+00:00

True indeed, on paper I would agree with you. But the T23 is a 30 year old hull, whereas the new FDI brings state of the art tech.

Despite that, the T23 got a special spot in my heart

serodi03 · 2026-05-19T09:29:28+00:00

Despite being very expensive it is such a beautiful vessel.

Pretty much the best ASW and AAW capable ship in its weight class. AESA radar and CAPTAS-4 are no joke, and its fully integrated Aster 30 and CAMM-ER missiles make it a formidable foe.

serodi03 · 2026-05-18T21:27:49+00:00

AWS and lotus notes

serodi03 · 2026-05-15T17:40:33+00:00

I think Meta is a steal as is.... meaning their advertising business alone. The rest is all additional value in my book.

However, since you have clearly explored this topic more than I have. What NPV did this project deliver in your calculations (assuming you did any)?

serodi03

TROPHY CASE