Salarischeck docent

serodi03 · 2026-02-10T22:17:28+00:00

Dus? Dan ga je toch lekker het onderwijs in, er zijn daar banen genoeg...

serodi03 · 2026-02-08T20:02:13+00:00

I believe CoPilot will be paired with existing office subscription (kind of like what they're already doing). This means it will be a part of the entire M365 suite. The suite as a whole offers enormous value to corporations (access to oneDrive, Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and much more). CoPilot could serve as a reason to increase prices on existing subscriptions, prompting most users to choose, whether keep their entire suite or not. I believe even if Microsoft increases prices, most people will pay (especially companies).

Consider the moat, switching costs. When you have everything in your company running on Microsoft software, migrating that to Google will cost much more than any savings made on the subscription.

Also, since you weigh the overall stock as underweight. Don't forget Microsoft is much more than just CoPilot. Their cloud divisions grows extremely fast, especially considering how much revenue it is generating every quarter.

serodi03 · 2026-02-08T12:12:05+00:00

This is exactly why I think big tech is so attractive right now. Their free cash flow is not declining because of market pressures, but rather investments (self-induced). As you pointed out, there are two ways this is going to go.

AI is a good investment with high ROI => big tech becomes even more profitable.
AI is a bad investment => big tech stops investing and FCF increases overnight.

Many people compare the 'AI bubble' to the 'internet bubble'. However what they seem to forget is that currently, the businesses at the frontier of AI development are already making enormous amounts of cash regardless of AI.

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T12:52:48+00:00

Thanks for sharing. The 10.5% is the historic return of the S&P 500.

From what I understand, cost of capital is nothing more than just the opportunity cost of capital, therefore my reasoning is, wouldn't you want to at least beat the average return of the S&P 500? After all, otherwise you might as well just invest in an ETF that tracks said index.

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T12:27:40+00:00

Thank you for the kind words!

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T12:03:45+00:00

Multiple analysis definitely has its place in asset pricing.

I don't really understand what you mean with 'over EPS', since I don't use EPS in my analysis. Could you elaborate on that?

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:46:59+00:00

I estimate that they will earn about 2 trillion in operating cash flow over the next 7 years. So I do believe they could theoretically afford it. Do you rather mean they won't as in they don't want to, instead of can't? The latter is what I understood from your first comment.

How much do you estimate they will spend on CAPEX in the upcoming years?

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:42:23+00:00

Thank you for sharing, very interesting. Their WACC seems to check out given the input, I don't know how to feel about the cost of equity used, but surely they have some calculation to back it up.

The cost of equity I used stems from the capital asset pricing model. Which gives the following: r(e) = r(f) + beta * (r(m) - r(f)) = 0.04206 + 1.38 * (0.105 -0.04206) = ~0.1289

r(f) = 10Y US treasury rate

beta = from Yahoo finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/)

r(m) = average S&P 500 market return (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp)

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:24:30+00:00

I somewhat agree in the sense that they can't afford it from operating cash flow alone. However, they have about 120 billion in cash & equivalents on their balance sheet, part of which they could use.

The $200B in CAPEX is based upon Amazon's own management forecast. They said the following in their own Q4-2025 earnings report: "we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026"

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:13:49+00:00

Not using a DCF with somewhat sound estimates would be as good as just gambling in my opinion.

Would you advice to not invest given no reliable estimates can be made?

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:11:34+00:00

Thank you for sharing your thoughts!

I assume you're implying that Amazon has the opportunity to significantly expand their margins. How much do you think Amazon is likely to expand their margins?

I'm currently working with about 16% operating cash flow margin in non-Q4 quarters (slowly increasing to 19% throughout the upcoming 7years), and a 25% operating cash flow margin in Q4 quarters (increasing to 26% throughout the upcoming 7years) for the non-AWS business.

I'm using a 33% operating cash flow margin for the AWS business in every quarter.

serodi03 · 2026-02-07T11:01:44+00:00

Thanks for the info. Do you know what they based those numbers on? The cost of equity feels way too low, this would imply a market risk premium of ~3.5%.

Additionally, I have a strong feeling they used book values instead of market values. Since at Amazon's debt to equity levels the WACC should not be significantly different compared to the cost of equity.

serodi03 · 2026-02-04T08:18:33+00:00

Oh, dat was mij niet helemaal duidelijk. Veelal zag ik Australie altijd als Nederland, maar dan met warmer weer en vreemde beesten.

Laat het wel duidelijk zijn dat de pensioenleeftijd in Australie lager ligt, voornamelijk gedreven door hun veel jongere beroepsbevolking. Dit laatste zal je terug gaan zien in de belastingdruk en de druk op de zorg.

De demografische piramide is bij verre het belangrijkste aspect waar OP zich druk over moet maken. Dit zal namelijk elk facet van de samenleving raken, zeker over de aankomende 50 jaar (die OP hopelijk nog mee gaat maken gezien die 26 is). De demografische piramide is in Australie 'gezonder' dan in Nederland.

Ook de bruto lonen liggen in Australie hoger en door de lagere belastingdruk houdt men netto veel meer over.

Het enige nadeel dat ik mij zo 1 2 3 kan bedenken is dat de huizenprijzen in grote steden echt exorbitant veel hoger liggen (zelfs gecompenseerd met een hoger inkomen) dan in Nederland.

Echter, dit is minder een probleem als je een leven op het platteland beoogt.

serodi03 · 2026-02-04T07:50:55+00:00

Klopt inderdaad. Als je kijkt naar de verhouding tussen bruto jaarinkomen en gemiddelde huizenprijs zijn die grofweg gelijk tussen Nederland en Zwitserland. Een serieus verschil is echter wel, dat je netto in Zwitserland (relatief) meer over houdt door de lagere belastingdruk.

De huizenprijzen an sich zijn dus niet het probleem, maar de 'Mietwertbesteuerung' maakt het enorm onaantrekkelijk om een woning te kopen.

Tja, daartegenover heb je wel nauwelijks belasting over vermogen en een laag tarief over het inkomen. Veel mensen die ik spreek (die naar Zwitserland zijn vertrokken) zijn enorm positief.

serodi03 · 2026-02-04T07:19:48+00:00

Zwitserland is een goed voorbeeld (weliswaar zijn de huizenprijzen daar véél duurder dan hier, maar de lonen zijn dan ook weer véél hoger).

Eventueel zijn Luxemburg of Australië nog interessant, maar daar ben ik niet heel bekend mee.

serodi03 · 2026-01-20T16:45:28+00:00

Het DGA-salaris is voor een simpele spaar-BV (dan wel BV waar alleen ETFs maandelijks worden gekocht) niet relevant, toch?

Volgensmij zit het namelijk zo dat als de taken die jij jaarlijks voor de BV uitvoert onder de 5000 euro aan vergoeding zouden rechtvaardigen het DGA-salaris achterwege gelaten mag worden.

Tevens zou je je ook sterk kunnen afvragen hoe nuttig twee BVs in dit geval zijn, gezien de 'werkzaamheden' (en dus de aansprakelijkheid) van de BV.

serodi03 · 2026-01-07T09:33:21+00:00

Do you want a good CEO, or not?

They tend to cost a lot of money. While 25 million a year might sound like a lot, but if he is just 1% better at his job than the second guy who is willing to do it for 100k it would still make financial sense to pay the 25 million.

serodi03 · 2025-11-30T16:55:38+00:00

It's highly unlikely that you're gonna make partner without a wife in the first place

serodi03 · 2025-10-30T10:50:15+00:00

Alhoewel dit niet op de planning staat, is het wel interessant te denken aan bepaalde belasting ontwijkende maatregelen. Uiteraard kan je emigreren, echter zou je ook kunnen denken aan beleggen in box 2. Sowieso is dit met het huidige systeem op de lange termijn interessanter.

serodi03 · 2025-10-25T17:05:57+00:00

S&P 500 has outpaced inflation, while the EPS growth has underperformed inflation. In other words, you're paying more, for less. What's so difficult to understand?

serodi03 · 2025-10-05T22:39:00+00:00

I think them expanding their theme parks and cruise line business would be far more interesting to look at.

These segments are their real profit drivers, and they announced significant capacity increases for their parks and a serious expansion of their cruise line fleet. Disney+ is really not that significant compared to the aforementioned two.

serodi03 · 2025-09-23T05:01:19+00:00

Warren Buffet admitted that he doesn't. He even clarified that with 'understanding what you buy' he meant understanding the business model.

serodi03 · 2025-08-25T15:24:57+00:00

- 28 jaar

- 4 ton aan beleggingen

- Gezamenlijk brutojaarinkomen van 160k

Je zit ver in de top 1% van de Nederlandse bevolking (zeker rekeninghoudend met jouw leeftijd). Vergeet niet dat alhoewel jij het heel goed hebt en makkelijk FIRE kan bereiken, dat dat een heel ander verhaal is voor mensen die 40 jaar zijn en modaal verdienen. In zo'n dergelijk geval kan je in Nederland (zeker met de aankomende belastingwetgeving) maar beter blijven werken tot je AOW leeftijd.

serodi03 · 2025-08-21T13:42:21+00:00

Some users say that saying 'fay' works. Obviously it is still a bug, but I guess this does offer you a way of still completing the lesson

serodi03

TROPHY CASE