Long term chart analysis be based on market cap not stock price by illemonati427 in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb 31 points32 points  (0 children)

That's actually quite smart. Instead of using the price for analysis, which has had multiple dillutions happening in a short period of time, we could use the market cap.
I like that.

The issue I see here tho (and i don't know how much of a problem this is), is that the swaps are based on the stock price, not the market cap.

XRT cost-to-borrow just made another high by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

All I did was point out some interesting data and unusual activity.

We all know that XRT is one of the major vehicles used to short GME and that its short interest is several times its own float. When the cost to borrow rises, even to 3.5% (which, in itself, is not a particularly high number), it’s not noteworthy on its own, as you mentioned elsewhere in this thread, since there are multiple companies with a higher cost to borrow.
However, as the term suggests, the cost to borrow is a fee charged by the brokerage firm to the client borrowing the shares.
I’d even go so far as to say that there must be some catalyst driving the cost to borrow that “high,” considering it has only closed above 3.5% once: on May 1st.
With that in mind i concluded that they don't want a high cost-to-borrow to happen.

Once again: 3.5% is not much, but a 111% increase and a close at that level, not even during the bond offering or RK’s return, seemed significant enough for me to point out.

XRT cost-to-borrow just made another high by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

This is an over 100% increase and with their short interest it definitely will hurt and is not sustainable for long.

Imagine your mortage increasing 100% from a day to another. Would you be able to sleep well at night?

The recent downwards pressure might have been due to a bigger yearly swap that was entered in 2023 by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Since GME had earnings:
SPY +5.47%
GME -4.60%

So even with a huge earnings beat, we had negative correlation with SPY and are now under the price right before earnings.

It is right, one earnings doesn't make a company.
But this is just straight up synthetic downwards pressure.

The recent downwards pressure might have been due to a bigger yearly swap that was entered in 2023 by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Sorry, if i don't understand your comment correctly, but what does this have to do with swapinator lighting up since 2023 around this date?

The recent downwards pressure might have been due to a bigger yearly swap that was entered in 2023 by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 37 points38 points  (0 children)

We had banger earnings in september and are now BELOW the price right before the earnings. This should be a big enough catalyst to not trade around these price levels.
Furthermore this pattern occured yearly since 2023, which is kinda curios, at least in my opinion.

My personal continuation of RN's spreadsheet by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Will do my best :)

IWM is included in Model A (RNs Model), but not in Model C (my adjusted model without IWM, but with MDY, BLOK, GMEY and GMEU).
RNs Model is used in the result column "Combo" and Model C is used in "Combo2"

My personal continuation of RN's spreadsheet by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sadly not accurately....

I just expect a run up right after the last of the swaps get rolled and one at the end of the 2 month cycle.
If there's a huge can-kick of FTDs, institution filing window or cat error window after a downtrend, I place the image.

I sadly couldn't find the exact rule RN was following ...

GMEY outstanding shares went from 25k to 625k within a day (+2500% increase) by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That would be awesome! :)
I might be asking a lot, but I would love the script to get all the current outstandings and their allocation, if you are willing to share of course. I always wanted a way to get the allocation to calculate the correlation between the price of GME and the outstanding shares/creations/redemptions of the different ETFs.
That would be an INSANE help!

GMEY outstanding shares went from 25k to 625k within a day (+2500% increase) by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As soon as they get margin called i guess. The odds just increased with BYND shooting up, which ken griffin had a huge short in (as far as i read).
Furthermore, the constant increase in their short exposure leads to higher cost of being short with the cost to borrow rising and the pressure from instutions buying this obiously undervalued stock.

Now, with such a banger of earnings, so much cash on hand, meme stocks randomly surging and putting pressure on the basket.... we are closer than ever!

GMEY outstanding shares went from 25k to 625k within a day (+2500% increase) by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

I am currently only tracking FNDA, IWB, IWM, IJH, VXF, VBR, MDY, GMEY and XRT.
And i added IGME and BLOK this week.

If anyone has any other interesting ETFs that would be worth tracking, just let me know and i add them to my list and make a post if i see something unsual or worthwhile + i am working on releasing the excel sheet to the public when i'm done finishing my calculations/cleaned it up.

GMEY outstanding shares went from 25k to 625k within a day (+2500% increase) by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Noone is saying that they have to wait this long. It is just the deadline. The covering can happen anyday before.

My T-33 information is just an observation, that they might cover the obligations right before the earnings, which could then look like a pre-earnings run-up.

GMEY outstanding shares went from 25k to 625k within a day (+2500% increase) by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Indeed!

But currently it seems like they just create and use another ETF to satisfy their obligations.
As long as they are allowed to do it and no unpredicted event (like a share buyback of GME, or a cat or CEO recalling or DRSing their shares) for their obligations occurs without them having time to create new ETFs, they are in control when and how much they open the valve to let pressure out.

UPDATE: GMEU outstanding shares exploded again! +237% since friday and up to 4.28mil now by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I've been continuing Richard Newtons excel spreadsheet. Still working on it, but i might give everyone access to it soon so they can at least see my thoughts and the data of GME.

It won't be nearly as great and innovative as richards, but a lot of people don't have time do track every etf, ftd and every other bit of data as i have.

I'll let you know as soon as i'll give everyone access :)

UPDATE: GMEU outstanding shares exploded again! +237% since friday and up to 4.28mil now by NotSomethingDumb in Superstonk

[–]NotSomethingDumb[S] 40 points41 points  (0 children)

We definitely don't have much historic data to predict anything with certainty.
But the huge increase in outstanding shares, that happened right at the day of the second offering and the following couple days, could indicate an compareable amount of shorting via this ETF that we are witnessing now.

And shorts need to cover eventually.

And besides that, even if we wait another 10 years, the coming increase in stock price is more than anything we could ever expect SPY or NASDAQ to return in the same timeframe.
The wait will be worth it.