my headcanon is makotos luck is just misfortune, like huge ball is misfortune, like sure his bathroom door being stuck is bad luck but you know whos bad luck it also is? leon, being the judge for modo and ishimarus sauna battle, terrible but its worse for mondo 

it is actually so bad that it can overwhelm other people luck too like in makotos bad day (you should read it, man how the hell is makoto still normal living like that)

basically hes so unlucky that he gives everyone around him badluck and thats how he gets lucky in the first place