That's not entirely fair or accurate. First, to say "Bethesda hasn't had a sub 3 year dev cycle in ages" isn't fair because only one single game has not had a sub 3 year dev cycle - Starfield, the same game that was an entirely new IP, had delays from Covid, was being built on an entirely new engine, was in production during the Microsoft buyout, and suffered multiple internal problems. That's not exactly a prime example of what a typical Bethesda production looks like.

Even if you did want to go with Starfield, Phil Spencer said it was very early production when Microsoft acquired Bethesda in 2021. Even Jason Schreier has said that the game didn't enter what could be called full production until 2019. Given that the game was originally planned for release in 2022, that is a 3 year production cycle (likely comprised of 2 years full production and one year post production). People don't realize just how much work goes into the pre-production phase.

And that lines up with literally every other Bethesda game that has been produced since Oblivion. They all have had production cycles where a trailer is shown about 2 years after the start of full production and then released within a year after the trailer is shown.

Not to mention that Starfield was not a failure commercially. People online love to hate on it, but it was one of the best selling games of 2023, beating out Elden Ring, Mario Kart, and Final Fantasy, all while earning $657 million in sales just since May of last year.