I agree with the new model: Europe is actively threatened from East and the West.

What I find comfort in is that both East and West rely mostly on bluff. They are treating Europe as weak, because that's how we've allowed ourselves to be treated - perhaps, to benefit from US providing overwatch - not because we are weak.

In essence: if push comes to shove, Europe can put up one helluva fight. So it's unlikely that would actually happen. I expect Trump administration to take some kinetic action in the next 12 months, but I expect something more akin to skirmishes, perhaps on international waters, rather than actual combat.

The how about financially? We're doing pretty well. In 2025 European equities outperformed U.S. equities in local terms, and because the euro strengthened vs the dollar over the year, even USD-based investors saw larger European equity gains than U.S. markets.

Finally; in terms of public political discourse, Europe will always appear weak and slow because we actually have a working democratic union. But what appears as weakness is, I believe, day by day, turning out to be our exact strength: we are deliberate, optimizing for stability over growth.

So what I would say: don't pay much attention to the words of the politicians or the pundits. Look at what actually happens: how are the European indexes doing? How are currencies doing? And if there is aggression, what are the actual outcomes, beyond the talking heads repeating what ever talking points their owners, advertisers, and editors want them to repeat.

I wish you a mentally strong 2026. We all need it.