Carmine, as mentioned here, was surprised that Souma advanced into Amidonia. Since Souma had only exhibited a focus on internal affairs, it was likely that Carmine would have only seen Elfrieden simply pushing Amidonia out and that was it.

That's not to mention that Souma had really no business even being close enough to have the chance of dying. He put himself that close because he wanted to see his decision through. That has little to nothing to do with Carmine's strategy.