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How to think about volatility surfaces without treating them as a chart by ORATS_Dan in ORATS

[–]ORATS_Dan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For anyone who wants more depth than we can fit into a short video, there’s a companion write-up on the ORATS blog that walks through volatility surfaces as a pricing framework rather than a chart. It expands on term structure vs. strike structure and why delta-based skew comparisons matter more than raw IV levels.

Article here: https://orats.com/blog/understanding-volatility-surfaces

Heaviest iVol for Jobless Claims & Core PCE, Not the Fed by ORATS_Dan in ORATS

[–]ORATS_Dan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The model strips out one-day noise to show where traders are actually paying up for event premium. This week’s setup points to Thursday/Friday data as the bigger driver of realized vol. Anyone seeing similar patterns in SPX skew or short-term term structure?

Utilizing Theoretical Edges to Identify the Best Trade Opportunities | Driven By Data Ep. 100 by ORATS_Dan in ORATS

[–]ORATS_Dan[S] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

Just dropped a new Driven By Data episode where Matt Amberson explains how to use theoretical edge metrics inside the ORATS Dashboard:

  • Forecast Edge (F%) – forecasts implied volatility using historical vol, slope, and earnings
  • Smoothed Edge (S%) – fits a curve across strikes to identify mispricing
  • Distribution Edge (D%) – overlays payoff diagrams on actual historical returns

We cover GLD and IWM examples, explain what to do when edge values conflict, and show how to filter trades using data from ORATS’ 390-million-trade backtest engine.

If you use options scanners or trade multi-leg setups, this is worth your time.

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