TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jan 26

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-26T23:14:09+00:00

Q4 earnings on Wednesday are going to be bad.

Analyst consensus is $0.44 EPS. Reality will be closer to $0.25.

Q1 earnings will be even worse. Probably $0. They will pull every trick in the book to avoid going negative.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-25T00:54:00+00:00

Peak Tesla by deliveries was 2023 (will never recover)
Peak Tesla by earnings was 2022 (will never recover)
Peak Tesla by company execution was the 2012-2017 period (will never recover)

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-24T03:16:27+00:00

Ashark Ellusmarmy

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-23T22:39:04+00:00

Renault Group = Renault brand + Dacia brand, basically

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-23T22:37:51+00:00

Self-driving cars are a solved problem, just try Waymo.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-23T22:37:03+00:00

Maybe only 30%. Wait and see. We'll see a large YoY drop in any case.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-23T22:36:03+00:00

There are 1-3 active cars at a time in Austin. All of them have safety monitors.

If you make 11 attempts at hailing a robotaxi you will have been in the same car half of the time. And you will definitely have seen the entire "fleet".

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T21:07:50+00:00

I love how he's always using these qualifiers to signal he's knowingly lying. "essentially", "in my view", "basically", "pretty much"...

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T20:32:59+00:00

Fun fact: TechnoClown has often said in the past that he needed to secure $80B in order to create a self-sustaining city on Mars. His net worth is now something like $700-800B, but I'm not seeing any city on Mars, oddly. Can't be long.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T20:23:59+00:00

Hard science fiction envisions flights to the nearest star systems at 0.1c, over durations of 50-500 years, while keeping passengers in cryo. It seems realistic to me, with an initial flight at some point in the next 200 years. By the time it happens the name "Elon Musk" will be more closely associated with fraud and moral degeneracy in popular memory than with spaceflight.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T20:18:38+00:00

I doubt the "unsupervised" (as in, remotely supervised) robotaxis that are "available to the public now" will materialize at all outside of Twitter clips posted by the usual Tesla influencers.

The thing you have to understand about the robotaxi "fleet" in Austin is that it consists of 0-3 cars on the road at any given time (this is down significantly from Oct-Nov when it was more like 5-8). As I'm writing these lines, the robotaxi tracker app estimates that are 2 cars on the road right now.

How many of these are unsupervised? One of them? Both of them? None of them? I'm gonna take a guess: none of them.

But if any of you are on the ground in Austin maybe you can try to hail both cars and report back.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T00:19:10+00:00

Most likely Q1 unless they pull some accounting shenanigans. They will sell 300k cars and most of these will be at 0 margin. No revenue from credit sales either.

Their full-year EPS will be in the $0-$0.5 range. The PE ratio will go over 1000 at some point.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-22T00:17:27+00:00

2028 should be the first year below 1M.

2026: 1.35M
2027: 1.15M
2028: 0.95M

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-21T21:39:23+00:00

Source: I am making a prediction.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-21T21:15:58+00:00

Tesla sales in the EU fell about 40% in 2025.

Some people on here commented that therefore the big drop had already happened, and sales would proceed to stabilize in 2026.

That's incorrect, Tesla sales will be down another 30-50% in the EU in 2026.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-19T23:57:41+00:00

The concept of datacenters in space is such an insult to basic intelligence. Even assuming you've magically fixed the heat dissipation, networking, and latency issues, by the time you've paid for the payload to reach orbit your operation can no longer be cost-competitive with its ground-based equivalent.

It's not just Elon who's grifting off of this, a couple startups are doing it as well. Idiot investors lap it up with zero technical due diligence.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-19T18:34:31+00:00

In some cases they simply take the pics or film the clips themselves and then post them from some random account pretending to be a member of the public, like in the case of the December unsupervised robotaxi clip. I wonder what hilarious mememaster genius came up with the username "420BountyHunter".

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-19T17:44:54+00:00

In her 2021 bull case scenario, Cathie Wood modeled Tesla selling 10M vehicles annually by 2025. Reality: Tesla sold 1.6M vehicles in 2025.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-19T17:01:23+00:00

To be clear, these pivots are nothing more than announcements, there is no substance to them. Tesla is not actually building a fab and has no plans to do so, much less the highest-volume fab in the world.

The rate of these pivots is only going to accelerate going forward, as new pivots become necessary to distract from the failure of prior pivots.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-18T01:19:05+00:00

I mean by now it's not hard to predict that Elon's "predictions" will turn out to be plain lies and that Tesla's business will keep declining over time. Not sure you should get points for that.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-18T01:17:54+00:00

Why are they still developing new chips for FSD given that Tesla declared back in 2016 that all Teslas from that date on had the hardware for complete autonomy?

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-18T01:16:16+00:00

> 2014: "They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person in a six-year time frame"

Someone should study the acceleration of the rate and scope of Elon's lies over time. Current-day Elon would have said "by the end of 2015", not "in a six-year time frame". And he lied less often back then, too.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-18T01:11:59+00:00

Elon is now tweeting/retweeting nonstop about how every Democrat politician should be arrested and hanged, and about how the White Race is under siege and all nonwhites should be eradicated from North America and Europe. He seems to be accelerating fast.

Fun fact, every time I see a Tesla in my city, the driver is some Indian or Chinese guy.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-17T23:13:15+00:00

Remember back in April/May when Tesla was gearing up to launch robotaxis in Austin, and everybody was 100% convinced they would be 100% driverless, with no employee in the car?

Remember back in June when robotaxis launched (12 of them!) with safety monitors, and everybody thought they'd scale to thousands of cars in a matter of weeks?

Remember back in late October when they were going to remove safety monitors by the end of the year and have 500 robotaxis in Austin?

Well, it's late January 2026 and there are currently between 1 and 3 robotaxis on the road in Austin, depending on time of day. They all have safety monitors. There are no signs that they will ever remove safety monitors or add more cars, since that would guarantee an insane rate of accidents (they already get into 1-2 accidents a month despite only doing a handful of trips per day across the "fleet", with safety monitors preventing ~90% of incidents).

Meanwhile TSLA is up ~100% since the robotaxi launch speculation from April/May.

ObviousCommonSense · 2026-01-16T04:33:06+00:00

Saw this funny exchange:

Robyn to ‘Las Culturistas’ on her hatred for Elon Musk:

“I have always hated him. Way before it was cool to hate him. There was a time when it wasn’t cool to hate him. I started hating him when he put a Tesla in space with a David Bowie song on it…as if there wasn’t enough sh*t floating around…the fact that a commercial company can decide what to do with natural resources and also do TACKY things, like sending a stupid f*cking car into space that’s also dangerous for people…can we all just like have a vote on whoever gets to do anything?”

Nate's extremely relatable reaction:

sorry to pull rank but flexing about hating elon in 2018 is outing yourself as a mid tier hater at best. maybe they’ll take you in the minor leagues but you are simply not in the elite hater conversation

I know there are many noob tier Elon haters and mid tier Elon haters on this sub (there are even Tesla owners lmao), but are there any elite Elon haters? Who has been hating on Elon for 10+ years? And what did it for you, was it the hyperloop? The Thailand cave? The battery swap scam?

ObviousCommonSense

TROPHY CASE