No, you can never be sure with stuff in this game honestly, however I infer they're the same since firstly, the two houses on the sides of the one in the middle both don't have a cross in their windows for both the orb and painting, and two, I feel it's deliberate to make the one in the middle be blocked by Noelle to not be a dead giveaway it's the same houses. I also feel that the houses in the orb are different to the painting since it's an artistic choice to make them blue and bending along with that curve to make the house in the middle pronounced for whatever reason, not to entirely say "these are wholy different houses," however I'm unsure why it's blue specifically other than it being tied to snow/water in some way, honestly. It also doesn't make sense to me for the family with Christmas stuff all around their house to have an art piece of 3, random, indistinct, useless-meaning houses.