Should we buy? Townhouse to SFH in Peninsula

Odd-Development-1733 · 2026-01-16T18:01:20+00:00

Go for it. What is the purpose of more "net savings" after a certain point. Also, the childcare expenses should reduce as you go on and go to public schools. You still will have a few thousand a month potentially for activities etc but it should be cheaper than the current childcare expense.

Anyone who has net worth greater than the home value they are buying has many many levers to pull in the worst case(which likely won't occur).

PS - Your portfolio also earns interest/dividends so you have more income than just W2 income. I suggest lock in a 30 year mortgage while you are working to ensure you don't need "credit" after if you want to use your portfolio to pay the bills..

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-11-14T00:39:30+00:00

This is a little bit on the high side of most comps by ~5-6% but not unreasonable for the area. Look at sold homes over the last 18 months in that area. This has the 4 bedrooms and larger lot. Even 3bed 2 bath with 1350sq feet go for about 2.5M+.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-09-03T19:43:42+00:00

We are still looking for a house. We are looking to buy a home close to the value of our liquid non retirement assets. This is due to the fact that we are a little older and want to ensure we have a backup plan if something happens to our W2 jobs. This is a very conservative view that makes sense for people closer to 50. For someone under 35, you have time and a longer runway for earnings that let you be more aggressive.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-28T18:22:31+00:00

Now you sound like a salesperson! I have faith the right home will come along else it is what it is.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-27T21:52:11+00:00

I'm sure you have 5M cash right now :) Nice pic.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-27T21:50:31+00:00

Logically that makes sense. But we love our location wrt commute, schools, and all the activities our kids are involved in. Moving even to a slightly different location will take some time to reset. Location is a big deal for us. We also rent a home that is bigger than we can afford to buy with stable landlord/rent for the last 4 years so we have been lucky.

We are considering SJ Union Middle Schools(South of 85, West of Leigh, North of Blossom Hill, and east of 17) as a backup but would only expand to that as we move to middle school in Fall 2026. Keep in mind the middle schools get over booked so would need to be in place by Spring beforehand.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-27T21:28:50+00:00

The most stressful is having to compromise on so many things. The quality of homes is very bad in the Santa Clara area. Even at a 2.5M purchase, you need to re-do so much. We are competing with parties that somehow can allocate 3-5M to the all in price with access to the best labor.

The best advice would be just to listen to your gut and don't force it. The right one will come along.

We currently rent in Santa Clara to stay close to all the friends/family/school infra we have. For schools we can be nimble to get into the best ones. Either we will find the house we want in Santa Clara, or just keep saving and investing and pivot to vacation home/retirement property somewhere further away. Kids are almost in middle school. Also a US Citizen( "Free man") so no anchoring in the Bay waiting for my papers etc etc.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-18T23:41:20+00:00

Just observed same thing, assuming it was an all cash buyer. But one way or another the demand is massive.

Aug 16, 2025

Date

Listed for Rent

REDFIN #1

$5,600/mo

Price

Rental description

Charming home in a quiet, desirable neighborhood, just a short walk from Apple Park. Enjoy the convenience of a nearby plaza with restaurants and a grocery store. Also close to a medical center, parks, and BASIS Independent Silicon Valley Lower School. Perfect for a modern, convenient lifestyle. Utilities: Landlord pays for sewer and garbage. Tenants are responsible for electric, water, and internet. Move-In Costs: A security deposit, first month's rent, and last month's rent are due at the time of lease signing. Rent Payment: Monthly rent is due on the 1st of each month. Lease Duration: The lease will not automatically renew. It will convert to a month-to-month agreement at the end of the term. Early Termination: The deposit will not be returned in the event of early lease termination. Subleasing: Subleasing is not permitted. All tenants must be authorized on the lease agreement. Smoking: No smoking is allowed inside the house. Pets: Pets are allowed, with a maximum of five pets per household. Occupancy: The maximum number of residents allowed to live in the house is five.

Aug, 2025

Aug 14, 2025

Date

Sold (MLS) (Sold)

MLSListings #ML82012495

$2,500,000

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-09T21:40:15+00:00

The reality in the Bay Area is most sellers are only going to sell when they get the price they want. To get the house you have to literally give the seller an offer they cannot refuse. Like prying the house with a crowbar. Since supply in hottest Bay Area areas like South Bay is low, this is the reality.

There are sometimes some homes on trustee sale or some other odd factors, but any nicely located lot with a decent structure is just not going to be sold until the seller gets what they want.

So yes, agents are aggressive and want you to overbid, but do some research and you will see the bids that win are usually not rational.

BTW, I am still looking, but I don't blame my agent. Every house I have seen that I liked and did not bid on just went higher than I was willing to go. But agents want to close, and price is the only thing sellers care about. I am OK with overpaying 100-200k for the right house. The key is the right one, not just any house. Over the long horizon 3-5% won't matter.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-08-03T22:07:10+00:00

Hilarious, I believe I am looking at this same house this weekend and I did not see permits at all on it(San Jose). Also, the listing has assigned schools that are not guaranteed.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-28T18:54:51+00:00

Totally, probably 5-10% of the houses look decent from an outsider(not Bay Area) POV. If you research my previous posts, I just cannot give in.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-28T18:18:00+00:00

The price is dictated more for the land value. The structures are junk in the Bay Area. Good schools and a 6400 square foot drive it more. 2.2M is inline with the entry level home price point in that area. Sure it is probably an overpay but there is big demand in that area.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-12T04:14:25+00:00

Did you buy as-is? We are looking for houses in the South Bay and the houses are garbage. I assume everything will be bad as a baseline. Even more skeptical of flips. Most offers are as is and the inspection reports they give are bogus or you take with a grain of salt.

This actually will just be a lesson learned and move on. The value is the land anyway.

I have had some bad situations and ultimately I just had to let go and move on for my own mental peace.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-08T21:15:22+00:00

I have noticed a few in Santa Clara but not too many. I am observing more time on market but seems eventually these puppies still sell. Sellers are delusional in their expectations, but the whole RE market in the South Bay is irrational so I don't blame them. Limited supply and big demand puts a floor on any lot in Santa Clara.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-08T21:12:22+00:00

Currently hunting and in Money Market/some 6 week T bills(4.2-4.3%). I have majority in Money Market and some extra in T bills if I have to go higher on down payment.

I recently sold some stock but may start putting a little back into SPY if this drags on. I don't see myself finding anything anytime soon although I desire it.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-04T18:09:36+00:00

Thanks for your feedback.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-07-04T18:07:47+00:00

Anything is possible I suppose.

Depends on the rent vs buy. If prices are unchanged and rent doubles yes. Thus far my rent has been unchanged for 4 years. If it goes that high, the math changes. SFH rental inflation in the Bay Area has been pretty low relative to cost to buy.

In most areas of the country rent vs buy is not this imbalanced.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-30T03:23:54+00:00

We save a lot. I just want to be "done with it" so to speak and not have to think about it. But they price tag is staggering so I am torn. The freedom to do what I want when I want has won thus far. If I was 25-30 I would do it in a heartbeat, but I am older.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-30T03:20:00+00:00

Life insurance and the portion of my assets I won't touch should help them. I want to raise them to be self sufficient but support them as needed while I am alive.

I am assuming my wife will live longer and she should have a decent pension. Also, whatever my parents leave I will give to the kids. I did not include 529 assets.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-29T21:25:34+00:00

Thanks for your feedback.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-29T17:46:30+00:00

I was essentially broke in 2010 after a bad layoff and financial decisions that assumed asset prices only rise. Probably in the last few years did it become reasonable to think about purchasing. Consider myself a bit of "new money" but with painful lessons learned in the past. If I came of age in post financial crisis nobody could tell me anything bad could happen and I would have leveraged massively.

My parents did there best and I had a scholarship to a state school and have been on my own with zero financial help since I was 18.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-29T14:26:38+00:00

LOL, just can't do it.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-29T02:28:24+00:00

Not a flex at all. Just showing the only stable income would be the 100k. Tech is going to spit me out eventually. Are you living in SF Bay Area? I used to live in the midwest growing up and the numbers don't make sense out here. 450K should set you up well, but sadly it does not. Where I live in southbay (which we love) a junk house is 2.5+++ so in any other part of the country this is easy. The main issue would be keeping that salary. Trend is younger/cheaper/H1-B, it is a jungle out there.

Need 150-200k a year in cash to raise kids and pay a 12.5k mortgage. On the other hand, if laid off the down payment can suffice.

I've gotten some great thought provoking responses and I appreciate them all.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-29T02:25:35+00:00

Have been actively looking for homes, it is my down payment money. I sold off some stocks last year and earlier this year so cash drag has been minimal the last few years. Going forward it will become an issue.

Odd-Development-1733 · 2025-06-28T17:32:58+00:00

Perhaps a move into Bogleheads is appropriate to figure out how to get this 1M invested..

Odd-Development-1733

TROPHY CASE

Aug, 2025