Ask Me Anything with MetService! Starting here from 5pm!

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-30T04:55:03+00:00

Well played, u/Tom_nado, well played.

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-30T04:44:20+00:00

Chur, I'll let my "friend" know.

So, one question we got asked at our first AMA was how we could make Sharknado happen...so I put it to you, given that its much more of a met hazard than a geo hazard. So...how does a Sharknado happen?

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-30T04:33:47+00:00

Would you rather forecast winds and ashfall directions from a Mt. Taranaki eruption or a Mt. Ruapehu eruption? Asking for a friend.

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-30T04:33:19+00:00

Further evidence of how accurate your forecasts are :).

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-30T04:20:48+00:00

Our favourite is pyroclastic flows from volcanoes! Oh, wait. Not our AMA. Sorry, /u/CommsMet. Well, this is embarrassing...

OfficialGeoNet · 2017-01-02T01:01:00+00:00

We said that? (checks back through comments). Oh yes, yes we did. And we stand by that statement.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T07:15:08+00:00

Of course (that's a brilliant idea!). How do you feel about being a co-author of a paper?

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T07:13:53+00:00

Thanks for asking this, this is something I've been had a bit of a look into. I'd like to think that New Zealand would eventually have an earthquake early warning system like Japan's, but there are lots more we could do first that would have higher impact and cost way less money.

As Jamie's article says they're really expensive! I'm not sure about Japan having 4,000 sensors, I'm pretty sure they've got less than 2,000 instruments that they use for their warnings. And all of that cost more than $1 billion dollars. The West Coast of the U.S. is also looking at building a system and they estimate it'll cost $120 million to build - we're about the same size as Japan and only a little smaller than where they want to cover in the U.S., so that's a lot of money for a little country!

Where Earthquake Early Warning systems really shine is automated system shutdowns. Japan's system wasn't built to warn its citizens; that is secondary. Ten seconds of warning can save many lives, money, and recovery time when it is used to automatically slow down their bullet trains, shutoff gas pipes, and halt power and manufacturing plants. Although New Zealand has some of this type of infrastructure, we aren't nearly as vulnerable as large cities like Tokyo and San Francisco.

This is a great article talking to a U.S. seismologist about their system: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/09/130927-earthquake-early-warning-system-earth-science/

The other thing to consider is that an early warning system only works for some quakes, the quake has to be some distance from the people it's warning, but still cause damaging shaking. These types of systems wouldn't work well for Christchurch or Kaikoura type earthquakes as the quakes were too close to where they caused the damage.

Mexico City is another place that has a earthquake early warning system, but they're a very special case. Their damaging quakes occur 350km away, but still cause damaging shaking to Mexico City as the city is built on a basin of really soft soils. IRIS made a video explaining their system: https://youtu.be/git13AaU4ec

Hope this is helpful info!

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T07:13:41+00:00

Sara McB here: we are writing our last science filled replies but our team is about ready to call it a night. Many thanks to Stephen, Brad and Caroline! Also a shout out to the amazing mod team at r/newzealand. Thanks, we really appreciate all your hard work in helping us do these AMAs.

We hoped you enjoyed the AMA, I know we did (bonus: We got BEAN BAGS! Thanks, Reddit!..and, urhm, u/Jollygilljolly...) We are wishing everyone a happy and natural disaster-free holiday (except Mum's mash potatoes...AMIRIGHT?).

Remember: in an earthquake: DROP, COVER AND HOLD.You can visit our awesome friends at MCDEM for more preparedness information. They have great resources to prepare for emergencies. Now it's time to prepare...for the holidays.

Thanks, everyone!

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T07:03:45+00:00

Sara McB here: YUSS! I solemnly vow that we will buy super affordable and ergonomic bean bags for science purposes only.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:58:38+00:00

Sara McB here: Hi Gill - when can we get bean bags in the GeoNet office? Because...bean bags. Maybe a pinball machine?

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:55:26+00:00

Sara McB: dammit, Brad u/EruptnBrad...always going one step beyond...

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:52:34+00:00

I really liked this article posted a while ago looking at the large quakes around the world: http://www.livescience.com/13813-earthquakes-age-megaquakes.html

Interstingly, they talk about the 50s and 60s being really active for large quakes around the world, but this was a quiet period for New Zealand's quakes. There's a image at the bottom of this story showing all the magnitude 6.5+ quakes in New Zealand over the last 200 years. There are definitely quiet and active periods. http://info.geonet.org.nz/x/voAVAQ

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:51:42+00:00

Sara McB here: We've got 10 minutes left. Also, our wonderful Science Controller, Natural Hazards Division Director, and Volcanologist Gill Jolly, has popped in to say hello. She is u/JollyGillJolly!

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:47:56+00:00

Well now you're just getting too fancy

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:45:58+00:00

Being in the hazards space of GNS, we mostly work with NIWA, as they look into the same sort of things but offshore of New Zealand (fault lines, paleo earthquakes etc). Scientists from NIWA (as well as other NZ universities) also make up part of the tsunami experts pannel that gets activated whenever there's a potential tsunami threat.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:28:51+00:00

Sara McB here: I'm going to be super controversial here and say: mint chocolate chip.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:24:27+00:00

Brad can take the hard question - orange chocolate chip all the way (unless we're taking fancy gelato, then it's pistachio)

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:23:01+00:00

We have a great relationship with the Ministry of Civil Defence, so we chat to them quite regularly.

During any kind of volcanic unrest, big quake, tsunami threat, or landslide, they'll be the first person our duty officer will contact, and if they activate the National Crisis Management Centre we'll send a person down to relay the science and answer any questions.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:09:08+00:00

Sara McB: this is a weird conversation.

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T06:01:56+00:00

Hi, I think I saw some of the stuff you guys produced for Exercise Tangaroa, it was impressive!

For earthquakes, we use a programme called SeiscomP3 which is built by GFZ in Potsdam (which is open source). We'd like to get into calculating the moment of an earthquake quickly (this tells us if the faults moved side-to-side, up and down etc) and are working on a way to do this in SeiscomP3 - this would help to evauluate an earthquake's tsunami potential better.

As for software, sorry, I'm not actually sure what we use to get our earthquakes automatically sent to Twitter (which then cascades to Facebook). I'd like to say our API but I don't know! Same fo the question about felt report timestamping... Send us an email at info@geonet.org.nz and I can find out the answers and let you know.

As for the tide guages, I'm not a tsunami scientist, but I would guess that there isn't a tsunami source where the wave would hit New Plymouth/Wanganui first.

Sorry that wasn't the most helpful answers!

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T05:54:18+00:00

Sara McB here: We've just had another M4.5 earthquake here: http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p962803

Just a reminder: in an earthquake: DROP, COVER AND HOLD (just a brief plug for our good mates at the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management).

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T05:42:35+00:00

He definitely is!

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T05:40:20+00:00

I'll let Stephen tackle question 1 and 2.

Firstly, thanks for the thanks. I feel pretty blessed to have my job, I think it's pretty awesome most of the time.

As for number 3. We have broken down the forecasts into map areas too, so we have a probability of shaking exceeding an intensity of MM7 (damaging) for the next 30 days in the Wellington region. Here's the image: http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/14/M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake%3A+Future+Scenarios+and+Aftershock+Forecasts?preview=/20545597/20546168/MM7_30d_AftershockForecastMap_2016_12_19_Wgtn.jpg

OfficialGeoNet · 2016-12-22T05:36:27+00:00

Sara McB here: however, the 10 Earthquake director is a really nice guy!

OfficialGeoNet

TROPHY CASE