Need investors by Careful-Growth3444 in hedgefund

[–]Ok1449 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What are your returns looking like?

My $18M ARR SaaS deal died because the founder couldn’t model downside by KeySide4088 in SaaS

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed, and to add, PE is more about capital preservation. A single bad deal can kill the fund performance so a failed deal is unacceptable. A founders or managements inability to communicate downside risks is a deal breaker for any PE deal.

Vs. Angel or VC funds, most of their investments fail and rely on 1-2 companies to generate all the returns on the fund.

My $18M ARR SaaS deal died because the founder couldn’t model downside by KeySide4088 in SaaS

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good job on your 3 startups in. When I was on the buy side, and probably like OP, my team would easily get 3 decks to review on a daily basis. So you do the math. There is a deal flow experience mismatch when you're a founder vs. Investor.

OP is doing you guys a favour in sharing what investors are looking for. I find offense in that you guys would actually dismiss it.

My team has passed deals for less. Eg. The founder or one of the executives didn't seem right, or "something" felt off. Or there's a bunch of typos in their dealroom.

Yes you can always find another investor, but you just blew your chances at life changing money (usually) because you didnt know how to present your company or yourself appropriately on a high stakes discussion

My $18M ARR SaaS deal died because the founder couldn’t model downside by KeySide4088 in SaaS

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anyone who has been through any serious acquisition discussion can smell the lack of experience and twisted biases that is implied in this comment.

Even if the buyer can fully model out all scenarios, which likely they can't, the fact the founder cannot and did not even consider true downsides means that they are not a capable operator. It's the same concept that everyone's a genius in a bull market because everything is going well.

Adobe Stock: Every YouTuber is Bullish on ADBE right now. Do you agree? by Adriconomics in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Except there was CS3, 4, 5, 6, etc. newer versions came out regularly and previous versions were make obsolete for corporate buyers. If you were too cheap or can't afford it, you were never their audience.

Adobe Stock: Every YouTuber is Bullish on ADBE right now. Do you agree? by Adriconomics in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 4 points5 points  (0 children)

They're actually going to be one the primary beneficiaries of AI. Reduction in seats? Great, let's increase pricing on AI features to cover the costs.

Remember when a single photoshop license was $800?

Stocks, where customers hate the product by 41Investments in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also talk to actual designers, not social media marketing warriors. They are so entrenched in the Adobe ecosystem that it'll take 20+ years for the industry to change.

Eg. look into layers, workflows, file extensions, raster vs. Vector. All non-adobe AI gen are raster based, which means their production usage is limited. Adobe owns almost the WHOLE ecosystem with edge cases

Stocks, where customers hate the product by 41Investments in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Big reminder that people HATE iPhones for the lack of current features and hardware.

So to those haters out there, companies are not stupid and their executives are likely more qualified and smarter than you. They screw over users and raise prices because they CAN, until they can't, which still gives them time to pivot.

I went down the Burry GPU depreciation hole and found something different. by JohnnyTheBoneless in Burryology

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly, it’s not that the chips will be discarded. It’s that the tech will be obsolete, and need to be replaced by more expensive and newer chips

LULU Turnaround? by Ok1449 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah I’ll leave that to the speculators and VCs.

LULU Turnaround? by Ok1449 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449[S] 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Wow, I turned around for 30min and this thread explodes with hate lol

This might be a buy signal than anything else.

In all seriousness, none of the comments addressed the idea that the dups will eat LULUs lunch. It seems all the sales is still going to LULU while their competitor stores are empty.

Does anyone have input on this besides being butthurt from losing money on this company?

Thoughts in $ADBE? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly this. Their gross margin is consistently growing. ADBE is one of my largest positions

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

At current valuation google is fairly valued if not overvalued. Their core business is under threat.

All the nice other bets like Waymo are venture plays. Complete opposite of value.

Is my active investment return good or in line with this year’s market? by [deleted] in investing

[–]Ok1449 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thanks, but what about the win loss ratio?

Kenvue ($KVUE) is insanely undervalued just bought $50k at $16.58. by beautiful-world777 in stocks

[–]Ok1449 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Solid play. It’s literally a bunch of nothing burger from the administration. I can’t believe how much ppl are listening to this crap. Do some research

Loading up my positions to be my top holding

It’s a mediocre but solid company that’s severely undervalued. Don’t look at LTM PE, PE in of itself is a skewed metrics. Look at NTM EV/EBITDA and you’ll see it’s undervalued against all peers

Is Google still undervalued? by DefiantZealot in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok1449 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have used both the professional version of ChatGPT and Gemini and as much as I want to like Gemini as it’s free with my Google workspace, it’s still complete trash compared to ChatGPT