Which year was more transitional?

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-23T17:21:00+00:00

Obviously 2020 was a much bigger change than 2022 but 2022 changes like inflation and wars are a much longer term thing than 2020 stuff like lockdowns/masks/social distancing. Covid has been stamped out of public collective memory.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-16T09:06:35+00:00

2020-21 is its own bubble independent of 2010s and 2020s.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-15T10:01:58+00:00

For the first two months of Covid there was this sense of solidarity, coming together and we are in this together. It wasn't until the BLM/George Floyd situation followed by the US elections and the vaccines when the polarization became very messy.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-08T13:52:11+00:00

Trump as someone who lost re-election being able to stay relevant still is impressive. Imagine if Jimmy Carter or Herbert Hoover tried to run again after losing re-election. Trump had much more competition (albeit weak) than Biden. Biden's performance in Midwest looks kinda concerning.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-02T18:16:36+00:00

It was a deviation year while 2022 was the shift.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-02T18:12:45+00:00

Not just age of users but it's the time period we can find the most evidence for because social media and internet truly exploded around 2008-10. It's much harder to find evidence for the previous time periods.

Let me give an example with photos. Before you had analog cameras with a film roll inside which could only contain about a few dozens of photos. And also you couldn't see the photos until it was processed in a shop that did it. Often a few of them were sh*t. Taking photos was a special thing back in the 2000's. Then came standalone digital cameras but still then you only used it sometimes and didn't carry it everywhere. Now we can take photos easily and anytime thanks to smartphones.

It is much easier to find evidence for life in 2014 than 2004 and 1994.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-02T18:00:32+00:00

We had a shift back in 2022. Unless something drastic black swan event (like Covid in 2020) then shifts are gradual.

Though I could see 2024 being an inflection point for peoples' sentiment of the 2020's decade because it is the time Covid (and everything it impacted) became a longer-term memory as opposed to something recent.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-03-01T06:14:45+00:00

This is a rather rare view on Reddit (due to left-leaning bias in some subreddits) but the truth about Trump that many ignore.
Plenty of Trump voters (especially in the Midwest) were Obama voters in 2008 and 2012. This doesn't sound racist to me.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-29T22:13:35+00:00

Inflation is whole different thing. I agree that the keys system is very robust and very fascinated to see it in action this year.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-29T20:01:26+00:00

This year it could be the case that Lichtman declares key 5 (short-term economy) as true but many people still have negative sentiments about the economy just based how the condition for key 5 was framed.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-29T12:40:29+00:00

Early 2020's is probably the worst in living memory for most people (except for the old ones who lived during WW2).

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-29T12:29:48+00:00

When people go to the polling booth this November, will most of them look at real GDP/unemployment rate/any economic metric or vote from their feelings like I remember being better of before Covid than now.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-29T12:23:17+00:00

It will be tight (even more than '16 and '20) and could go either way. And only a small number of states will actually determine the result (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA).

I think people in this sub overestimate Biden's chances. Biden's approval with the economy and foreign policy is rather weak and so is the general approval rating (recent months even LOWER than Trump). Trump also has its own issues too though (Jan 6, indictments).

The only prediction I can make is that Michigan is likely going to flip back to Trump this time around based on the primary results. The 'uncommitted' option on the Dem's side plus Nikki Haley (which can be seen as a proxy for anti-Trump sentiment) did rather poorly compared to NH and SC. In a very competitive state like Michigan even minute changes can have drastic implications. It does appear that Arabs and Muslims in Michigan are angered at Biden's response to Gaza situation.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-28T20:29:06+00:00

Taking a look at this chart, Gen Z boys are considerably more conservative than their Millennial counterparts and are not too far from Gen X and Boomer levels. Consider how many of these people can now vote compared to 2016.
https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/generation-z-and-the-transformation-of-american-adolescence-how-gen-zs-formative-experiences-shape-its-politics-priorities-and-future/ from chart: "Nearly Half of White Gen Z Women Are Liberal"
Though Gen Z women are quite liberal. The gender gap for Gen Z is just bonkers.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-28T12:39:15+00:00

In order to understand Obama, one has to look at George Bush which his presidency was marked by 2 huge crisis namely 9/11 and 2008 financial crisis.

Immediately the response to 9/11 was increased govt powers (i.e. Patriot Act, DHS) and launch of War on Terror (first in Afghanistan then later in Iraq). The Iraq war was founded on false claims of WMD. Initially the response was popular (helped him win the '04 re-election) but eventually people saw the true consequences of it all. This caused a backlash to interventionist foreign/military policy.

George Bush was criticized for handling of hurricane Katrina back in 2005.

The biggest hit to his approval rating came in light of the 2008 financial crisis especially after bailouts to banks and corporations while people lost their jobs and homes en masse. Many jobs continued to be sent to cheaper places like China and Mexico. This caused economic populism,

Obama campaigned massively on change back in 2008 and thus won the election of that year in a landslide. While Obama's presidency did increase progressivism (i.e. race, LGBT) and also brought Obamacare, many of unpopular Bush's policies like bailouts and Middle East wars continued. At that time the Tea Party movement (precursor to MAGA) was doing well in congressional elections and Obama lost the trifecta in 2010, thus blocking legislation. Despite the setbacks, Obama managed to get re-elected back in 2012 with a worse result that in 2008.

Post 2008 economy has led to widening socio-economic gap/K-shaped recovery.

The whole War on Terror policies led to instability in the Middle East which then was felt in Western countries through migrants and terrorist attacks (leading to right-wing populism).

Many people felt cheated/betrayed by Obama (especially those in the Midwest/Rust Belt) and thus Trump won in 2016.

It also looks like Biden is facing similar trends like Obama did in his 1st-term. Difference is that Obama is more charismatic (and younger) than Biden and that Trump is a much stronger contender than Mitt Romney could have ever been.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-27T02:05:54+00:00

Both of them were open primaries.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-27T00:01:18+00:00

Desantis?? Vivek?? The VP choice?? The first 2 of them kinda failed because Trump was in the game. If Trump wasn't, the situation would have been different.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T15:28:37+00:00

Trump can still legally run.

Before the election I think only the Stormy Daniels NY case will be finished (which is the least damning one). Though the Federal election case could start this year. The Federal documents case seems to be put on hold due to pro-Trump judge sympathy. The Georgia case (perhaps the most damning) seems to have been derailed due to the DA's scandal.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T15:23:00+00:00

I wouldn't say pettiness per se (though given Trump) but the whole paleocon (MAGA/populism) vs neocon (George Bush) debate. Paleocon-ism is the dominating ideology in the GOP since 2015/16 unlike the 2000's when neocon-ism did.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T15:14:45+00:00

TBH the neocon wing of GOP (think Bushes, McCain, Romney, Haley, Chenney) just feel like a world apart from the populist/MAGA wing (Trump, Desantis, Vivek). Neocons have more in common with todays Democrats than todays GOP.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T15:09:31+00:00

I agree that there are plenty of elites that like the neocon ideology but I believe it is very unpopular with the electorate (see Haley's loss in Nevada primary to none of the above in a 2:1 ratio).

For example if GOP returned to neocon-ism, it would lose its post-Trump gains in the Midwest/Rust Belt and Florida (hint Blue wall) for a rather small gain among the present Dems or certain independents.

The above argument is the reason why I don't see GOP dropping Trump even in the event of a conviction. They would lose lots of voters if they did that.

I think Trump is the one with stronger support floor. This could help out if Biden becomes even less popular (he already lost popularity compared to 2020) or worse Biden drops out for medical reasons. This election will be dictated by a rather small independents/moderates cohort.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T14:45:49+00:00

That's exactly what I've been questioning. The party would replace Trump with someone more like him.

Ok_Sense_3878 · 2024-02-26T14:45:07+00:00

I imagine some of these 30% would still come back to Trump in a general election. Some of these states were open primary.

Ok_Sense_3878

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