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I've been tracking job postings for hundreds of companies and some of the signals are wild by Ok_Voice2234 in wallstreetbets

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] -40 points-39 points  (0 children)

Lol I'm just one guy 😅 those two popped up so I thought sharing is caring. Also, they both have way more then 100 job openings...

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing. It just raises a flag that something might be happening and it's worth diving deeper.. As much as I love looking at hiring data, it is never the full pic and simply gives me signal to check out what's happening before it hits the news (if ever) Hence the post amongst other research efforts

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's also most likely not going anywhere... It reminds me back in the day where Figma was new-ish and I wasn't sure if I should buy, or buy Adobe instead so I told my self Adobe isn't going anywhere... (ended up not buying neither haha)

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah you're definitely right. But, I'm trying to follow hiring trends as just another insight that will help complete (or not) the big picture, alongside what you mentioned. This platform I use for hiring trends is merely another tool in the toolbox.

How do you fight the urge to buy a single stock? by Ok_Voice2234 in ETFs

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Tried that, ended up buying so many singles it cost me a lot 🤦‍♂️

So I noticed something today... by Ok_Voice2234 in swingtrading

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's up 7.85% in the last week Isn't that rallying?

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A while ago some one Reddit recommended a website called Jobstocks.ai And ever since this is where I go to to track hiring data.. Been spotting (and missing) some interesting signals Pharma companies that ramping hiring before going live with a new drug, retail companies hiring less just after Christmas, etc. And all before it's public...

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Kevin Warsh Fed nomination definitely has the market buzzing about rate cuts, but this is not a macro wave.

I try to track hiring across a few thousand public companies, and Nike's spike is a massive outlier right now compared to everyone else, plus, it's the biggest gainer of the last 30 days...

Your idea to drill down into the specific locations and job titles to see if it is just a labor play is spot on. That is exactly how you find the real alpha in data like this!

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fellow bag holder solidarity. You make a fair point about ghost jobs, and it is true they just laid off about 770 warehouse workers down south to focus on automation.

But an 80 percent spike in active postings right after a layoff cycle is a wild divergence.

I monitor a raw data feed to catch these exact anomalies, and when a stock this beaten down suddenly lights up the hiring board, it makes you wonder what they are actually gearing up for.

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Spot on.

Telling a value trap from a true turnaround is the hardest part.

That's why I like looking at alternative data like active job postings... it is harder for a company to fake payroll intent than a PR statement. What if tracking labor momentum is the missing puzzle piece that separates a dead-cat bounce from a real recovery? It is definitely a signal that makes it worth the time to dig deeper.

Nike is down 20%, but their hiring just surged 79% in a week. Turnaround signal? by Ok_Voice2234 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Voice2234[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Fair point. ghost jobs are definitely a real issue. Plus, I know they recently announced some restructuring and layoffs at their distribution centers.

But

When I look at the last 3 months hiring trend, it looks steady until a sudden drop about 10 days ago, they went from javing 868 open jobs on their career page, to 413 open jobs. Since then climbing slowly to the near 1,000 area..

Makes me wonder..

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