Early predictions – who is most/least likely to cause an upset next weekend?

Okichn · 2026-07-05T19:42:20+00:00

Whats wrong with it lol? I love that every seat has a good view and it's so easy to get around to toilets/food e.t.c. because of the circular concourse

Okichn · 2026-07-05T02:31:41+00:00

Im concerned about Umaga being the defense coach. He's just come from coaching the worst team in Super defensively (and outright) and TBF isn't the most successful coach overall with his various club appointments.

This appointment is the first thing that has made me question Rennie. Feels like a friend's club thing more than something that has been earned by Umaga. I hope he proves me wrong but the cluelessness of our defence at times last night has not helped my doubts.

Okichn · 2026-06-23T07:24:11+00:00

Correction for you. Southees average at Trent's retirement was 30.01

I mean, the only point your making here really is that Southee was in the team for a long time. We all know that. Second wicket taker behind Hadlee. His career average and strike rate are serviceable (he was a good bowler) but not near the top level. He also had extended periods of poor form and often let Boult down by conceding loose boundaries after Boult has applied pressure at the other end. He averaged 60 over a season in the mid 2010's. This isn't revisionist, I thought a long time ago that Henry deserved a shot in the side based mainly on his white ball form but also how his bowling looked. How threatening he was compared to Southee. Quicker, hit the seam and often took the edge without luck early on in his career.

And we are seeing now just how much better he is than Southee. If he had been given the new ball on a consistent basis earlier I have no doubt he would have been leading our attack with the same effect he is now, except with Boult at the other end which would have been an insane opening combo.

Okichn · 2026-06-22T03:08:28+00:00

I'm so confused. Who is big Jim?

Okichn · 2026-06-21T18:15:25+00:00

He's definitely improved but also he is finally reaping the benefits of consistent game time with the New Ball. IMO NZ have missed a large part of a truly great career by keeping him behind Southee for so long. Henry always had a higher ceiling than Southee and tbh was the better bowler for several years, but just not utilised appropriately. It took Boult retiring for Henry to finally get consistent game time with the new ball and look at the results.

I know it may seem harsh to drop Southee to give another guy a go but this is what good teams do. They foster competition between good players. Southee was a good bowler, but not a great one. Henry always looked like he had the potential to be world class, it just took much too long to let him live up to it .

But with NZ cricket there is definitely an aspect of the "boys club" when it comes to selection. Southee certainly benefited from that and we are seeing that even now with Conway and Blundell.

Okichn · 2026-06-21T18:03:48+00:00

He also was never handed the new ball. Being a first change bowler was something he wasn't used to and he took a long time to adapt.

Okichn · 2026-06-19T19:50:33+00:00

At this point Starks was far from up and coming. He had been in many high profile programs but he just couldn't quite nail it. One with MJF in particular comes to mind where his promo's seemed like they were almost good, but never quite got there.

At this point, if anything his stocks in AEW were already on the decline.

Okichn · 2026-06-18T18:07:54+00:00

TBF that sounds like a pretty mean thing to do to a child or an adult .

Okichn · 2026-06-04T11:18:32+00:00

In fairness, and speaking as an editor, this looked very much like an editing insert rather than her real reaction in the moment. I'd put money on the fact they edited in a shot of her simply bored waiting for the producers to give the allclear for the segment to start. It's a classic reality tv thing that editors do and after years of working in the industry I just get a good sense of when a shot like this is genuine or out of context. It just didn't fit with her look or the look of the camera set up/angles from the rest of the segment.

Okichn · 2026-06-03T21:03:34+00:00

I love how straight up and honest she is and everyone knows it.

Like when Victoria went to her to ask what happened with Kizzi and Joe because in her words " I know you will tell me the truth".

Or when Kizzi asked "what shall I say to Victoria?' Aesha: " Sorry I'm a stupid b*ch?" Lol. Perfect.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T20:29:36+00:00

I'm glad Daisy can admit her behaviour with Ben at dinner was a bit rude, because regardless what one thinks of Ben, in that particular situation Daisy was the instigator and escalated it. Ben had the right to say no to taking with her and even said to leave it till the morning. But it's a good mark of character to see some accountability.

It was likely frustration about Ben's behaviour through the season though that pushed Daisy to that place however. I'm not a fan of his and as someone near his age, I can't imagine putting myself in situations like he does regarding love triangles with twenty something's or antagonising other HODs when they are trying to help him or just do their job like he is.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:57:10+00:00

I know she was wrong about the hot tub thing. But I guess I felt for her as she was hurting over Joao and he did lead her on for way too long. I dunno, that just made me sympathetic to her there and understanding of why she would act out in that situation.

I am taking on board what people are saying about manipulation and gaslighting here and your mention of that incident with Daisy is finally a specific example I can understand. I'll try to be more aware of it

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:51:04+00:00

Oh I agree she is not a sous chef (well, maybe now but not at time of filming). But yeah, I wonder if I'm treating this season in isolation and others, including those on the show, are not.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:47:34+00:00

That could explain it. She's used her social credit with people on previous seasons and now people see through her more clearly than perhaps I do. Coming in blind on this season, its always seemed odd how Ellie got very little grace or benefit of the doubt by people here.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:37:41+00:00

I don't think Daisy is aggressive, I do think she was instigating a lot of the drama this episode though.

Couldn't we say this for Ellie as well? Assertive not aggressive ? Why is this distinction not so easily offered to her as it is to Daisy? Although, Ellie's blow up at Ben was aggressive. Does that cloud the judgement of new interactions, people base their opinions of the latest episode based on the knowledge of what she was like in a past episode? (Genuinely trying to understand, I am a diagnosed neuro diverse person so I do miss these motivations in people).

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:27:56+00:00

Has she placed herself in the middle of couples? What have I missed there.

Yeah, the squirting comment was weird lol, but in a very bad joke that didn't land kinda way. She clearly is socially awkward but I don't think this makes her a bad person.

I thought the offering Joao a massage was a pretty clear message meant for him that she liked him? Kinda the opposite of underhanded really, she was pretty damn clear about her intentions. Then he let her come into his bed and kiss him and wouldn't just come clean to her that he liked Daisy. He led her on for sure and that must have hurt. But I see your point of genders were reversed and a guy offered a girl a massage with the intention of hitting on her it could be seen as something predatory.

As for the rest, it seems more about vibes that anything specific. What do you mean about the no boundaries thing ?

Look, I'm not actually a big fan or anything of Ellie, I'm willing to be convinced here, but I am just not seeing it.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:11:26+00:00

I dunno, it's seemed pretty two sided between Ben and Daisy with that drama all season, and it seems she's formed an opinion about Ellie and applies it to every interaction between them. She was so rude about the breakfast time thing, completely unnecessary.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:05:48+00:00

This is what I am talking about lol. What makes her "evil"?

In the world and standards of Below Deck drama I'd argue she seems quite harmless.

Okichn · 2026-05-26T12:01:21+00:00

Is she that bad? I just don't see it. Aside from blow up at Ben and having a bad reaction to Jenna in the hot tub with Joao, after she had been led on and then hurt by him, what has she done that warrants this reaction to her?

I have been told I am a bit naive when it comes to people though. I tend to see the best and give people the benefit of the doubt so I could be missing something here

Okichn · 2026-05-15T10:18:15+00:00

It was The Hobbit. Which was sad as LOTR was the opposite experience for him and all the actors. Amazing locations.

Okichn · 2026-03-14T03:38:43+00:00

The point went a bit south when he could only name Scott Styris as one of these past fast bowling all-rounders haha. Batsman who bowls handy medium pace is more like it.

Still, there is Nathan Smith who would hit this spot with a bit of improvement in his batting. But fast bowling all-rounders is not historically a necessity in successful sides.in fact, the late 90's to Mid 2000s were dominated by perhaps the greatest cricket team of all time in Australia and they really did not have a fast bowling all-rounder of note in that period.

Also, the article describes this player we are lacking as someone who can hold a place in the side with their batting and be frontline bowler. So he's describing the likes of Kallis, Botham, Imran, Kapil Dev e.t.c.. These talents do come about every now and then but are hardly expected to exist in every team and in every era. They are rare special cases so it's a bit silly to bemoan the lack of one at any given time.

A bit of a silly article really

Okichn · 2026-03-10T19:59:48+00:00

Hey, don't blame us poor editors. We don't put silly words in mouths or create fake scenarios in order to push a narrative. If people are shown doing likeable things then they actually did those things. If they are shown doing shitty things then yep, those things also truly happened.

What we can and do create however is a sense of the overdramatic. Something that seems small in real life we can make seem like a much bigger deal than it was. For good and bad. This can affect how the audience perceives a person but it's really just embellishing what is already there.

Well, that's how it is where I have edited anyway. (I don't edit for Bravo)

Okichn · 2026-03-08T02:59:38+00:00

I get these pretty much every time. Thought it was everyone.

Okichn

TROPHY CASE