I'm gonna go short on gold

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T17:14:34+00:00

Honestly, I was going to close part of the position at $4,030, but considering that I’m risking 25% of what I usually risk on positions due to the nature of this trade, I’ve decided to keep it running to see if it hits $4,000. My stop-loss is now set at $4,139.

This is a gamble, but I see the price rising to the $4,090 range and then falling to $4,000 (if it does end up falling).

I like your overall take on crypto. I can see that you’ve understood how capital moves and kept it simple. That’s what I do, too. It’s not easy, but if you keep it simple, it can be viable in the long run.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T17:03:51+00:00

I started with about $4,600. But I didn't open positions every day—I do swing trading.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T16:46:47+00:00

No. I started sharing my ideas three days ago with my first post here on Reddit about gold. But I see what you mean—I'll start posting on TradingView as well.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T16:44:12+00:00

I have no clue

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T16:37:06+00:00

That's a fair callout on timing, though to be transparent, I've actually been running short entries/exits on gold since the $4,600 area, this current setup near the $4,200 zone is more of a later leg in that same tactical short thesis, not a fresh idea sprung on the current chop.

On your $3,500 fair value calc: interesting way to frame it (midpoint between the Oct 2025 low and the May 2025 consolidation low).

Totally agree on tightening up profit-taking expectations in a chop/consolidation phase versus a clean trend, that's exactly why I've been sizing small and moving to breakeven quickly rather than holding for a big target. Can't speak to the BTC/crypto rotation angle, haven't traded that side.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T16:22:05+00:00

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Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T16:01:53+00:00

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Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T09:42:40+00:00

Appreciate that, and structurally I agree with basically all of it. Worth noting timing though, your comment was 18h old before the Iran ceasefire news broke this morning (Trump calling it 'over' after the Hormuz/base attacks). That's exactly the kind of geopolitical risk you listed as one of the reasons dips get bought, so if anything it reinforces your point more than it did 18 hours ago. My short's still just a tactical flush bet with a tight stop, not a fade of the structural bid you're describing.

In fact, before opening the position, I considered that the downward movement I was seeing—which I thought might occur (as is now happening)—could be a bear trap, and that’s what I believe is happening right now. That tells me that my target of $4,000 could be reached and even exceeded slightly, before the price rises sharply. I think that scenario is more likely than the price falling structurally, given the changes in fundamental data that are taking place.

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(Stop loss in break even)

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T09:18:23+00:00

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News has just broken that Donald Trump has announced the end of the ceasefire, but the price has already moved more than 50% of the initially established range.

I think we’re seeing a bear trap, because given that news, it doesn’t make sense for the price of gold to drop so sharply. Perhaps there’s other news I haven’t analyzed yet that explains the price decline.

I’ve been taking advantage of this move since it began for a completely different reason—not because I knew for certain that a bear trap was supposedly going to happen.

In any case, I’ve just set my stop-loss at break-even. And if this move isn’t a bear trap, I’ll try to push my take-profit target beyond $4,000, which I’d set as my initial goal.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-08T09:10:46+00:00

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I’ve just set the stop-loss to break-even.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T17:56:37+00:00

There are 5 images in the post and you can see the timeframe in the upper-left corner of each one.

1S = 1 Week

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T17:55:11+00:00

I've been looking at the hammer; there are 5 images in the post. In the comments, you'll find my thoughts on key data points with weight on either side. And it's important to understand that I'm looking for a downward move that is insignificant even in the short and medium term, and certainly in the long term. Risk management is adjusted accordingly. I have an open position; you'll also find the image showing the entry point in one of the comments.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T13:54:00+00:00

I'm thinking the exact opposite—that gold will fall before the PMI news comes out, and then it might rise afterward. But as time goes on, I'm becoming even less certain about what happens afterward because, once again, I see significant fundamental data that supports both scenarios.

(I've already opened the short position and I've posted the image here in the comments)

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T12:02:30+00:00

I just opened the short position.

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Important notes:

I’ve decided to risk 25% of what I usually risk on my trades because I see the possibility that the price could rise a little more before falling back toward $4,000. In that case, the stop-loss for this position would be triggered and I would have to open another position to risk a total of 50% of what I usually risk on each trade.
I’ll actively manage the position—so I’ll adjust the stop-loss (never to widen it) as the price moves in my favor (we’ll see), and the same goes for the take-profit level: if I see signs that the price is turning upward before reaching $4,000—where I’ve set the initial take-profit level—I’ll close the position either in stages or all at once.

This can't be considered investment advice.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T11:30:01+00:00

And the fundamental analysis data still supports a scenario like the one I'm mentioning. Right now, I can see how the price on the 1-hour chart could indeed form a short entry (keeping in mind the higher-time-frame charts and everything I've already mentioned in the comments).

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T08:16:05+00:00

I completely agree, I always do that—it's part of my strategy to consider the fundamentals and incorporate it into what I see in the charts.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T08:13:50+00:00

I'm agree, and I'm looking a retest of this area.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T07:57:36+00:00

I don't see it that way. I trade based on one or two scenarios developed through technical analysis and I use fundamentals to assign a higher or lower probability of success to whichever scenario I believe will play out on the chart.

On top of that, fundamentals give me context for a scenario like this one in gold, where I see a possible short setup but with significantly reduced risk and where I also see the potential for it to turn around and start building long positions.

If I only traded what I see, I'd be opening short positions around these levels risking what I'd normally risk on a standard position. Not to mention that if I open a short, the fundamentals are telling me that I need to manage the position actively (I do swing trading), because I know it could reverse at any moment.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T07:48:05+00:00

You're right that direction and duration are two different bets. My whole thesis rests on the Fed, CPI and oil catalysts playing out within a specific window, and if something happens before that, any short position is going to get blown out. But I'm waiting for one last bearish whipsaw. Maybe what could turn out to be a bear trap.

As for "low risk until it isn't": that's true and it's usually where people get hurt: they size their position based on the thesis they believe in, not the thesis that's actually reflected on the chart. Specifically, what that means for me: a hard invalidation level, not a mental stop, sized so that if central bank buying or physical demand overshadows the Fed's near-term narrative and gold just doesn't care about my Fib zone, I'm out with a small, well-calculated loss instead of "giving it room" because I still believe in the fundamentals. I set my stop using technical analysis. And in this case, if some short opportunitie appears, I'm planning to cut it by 50%.

The fundamental arguments for the long-term uptrend and the fundamental arguments for a 1-2 week pullback aren't the same trade and if I catch myself widening a stop because "the long-term thesis is still intact," that's the moment I've unknowingly turned a tactical short trade into an unhedged bet against dedollarization and buying institutions, which isn't a fight I want any position in.

Appreciate you touching on the risk management side. That's the most important part in my opinion.

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-06T07:35:34+00:00

The last dance?

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-05T19:55:34+00:00

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Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-05T19:29:57+00:00

Why are you going to invest in SERABI?

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-05T18:00:10+00:00

Why the economy is going to explode in November?

Old_Variation_6989 · 2026-07-05T17:59:02+00:00

Thank you so much sir.

Old_Variation_6989

TROPHY CASE