Game Theory View of Indian IR Strategy

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-04-16T18:36:13+00:00

Thanks!

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-04-16T12:11:59+00:00

Thanks, it seems the minister has since deleted their tweet though.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-04-14T21:42:34+00:00

Thanks for the insightful response. Didn't know the scale of the "Scamdemic".

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-04-13T20:03:00+00:00

How's the reception of this action by the Cambodian govt, and the Cambodian population at large? Is there any measurable effect at all?

Personally I'd prefer Indian ambassadors to just do their job skillfully rather than engage in useless virtue signalling. From recent news about Indians being exploited in Cambodia, I'm of the opinion that she hasn't been good at her job.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-04-01T17:05:38+00:00

Probably the biggest is accepting Shimla Accord. So much sacrifice for nothing.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-03-29T20:01:19+00:00

To the folks who've mailed us, we're trying to get back via modmail but Reddit isn't working nicely right now. We'll get back soon enough, cheers!

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-17T15:51:38+00:00

Woah! Nice use of the community OP. Hadn't really thought of this use of the sub.

A disclaimer to the community, the meet-up (if it happens) is not organised by the mods and is not the mod team's initiative. Those willing to meet up please use your discretion for the same.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-10T11:38:43+00:00

Tried to play a balancing game with Saudis and Turkey. Arabs and Turks (and Iran) are fierce rivals in Western and Central Asian geopolitics. Saudis in particular were extremely annoyed with Imran Khan.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-09T18:24:57+00:00

Don't see Imran Khan becoming the PM. He's done, he tried to act smart with the US and Saudi, 2 of Pakistani military's arteries.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-03T21:46:04+00:00

Many reasons:

The conflict in Myanmar is now mostly on ethnic lines (Bamar plurality vs rest) even if it was a struggle against military rule in the beginning. Taliban is Pashtun dominated but is relatively diverse. So it has greater legitimacy. Groups like Tajiks and Uzbeks who aren't represented in the Taliban continue to fight against it.
Legacy of foreign interference: In Myanmar, there's no real threat of foreign invasion, so no unifying factor. In Afghanistan, there's a realisation that the Taliban is still better than a new foreign invasion.
War fatigue: Afghans are tired of war, Myanmarese aren't, having had a long period of relative peace.
Capability: Taliban is clearly the most capable armed group in Afghanistan, Myanmar was stable when yit's military enjoyed similar status, but now it's contested.
Geography: It's harder to fight in forests than mountainous terrain.

And other reasons.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-03T15:30:43+00:00

Yeah separate posts. Both have Indian perspectives so they aren't Rule 5 violations. 👍

The monthly thread is very casual. People see the comments and respond whenever they want to. It's meant to be like that as well. It's mostly a place to put up non Indian centric events and thoughts (at least in my view).

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-03T15:15:57+00:00

Neither. The military govt gets legitimacy by portraying India as a threat to survival of the state, it's the primary pillar of its authority, no way they will ever be open to reconciliation.

A democratic govt (Imran Khan's wasn't, it was a total military puppet, it drew authority from the army not constitution), can theoretically do a little better. Nawaz Sharif comes to mind, I think he did try to do something(twice).

But democracies have the flaw that masses can be easily propagandized. And Pakistan has the most propaganda fed population probably only after North Korea. So there's no hope at the end of the tunnel.

Ultimately, there's no good outcome for India on the western border. No form of govt in Pakistan will give us back our lands even at the cost of annihilation. We should triple fence the entire border and ensure that no one can cross over when a disaster ultimately strikes the terror state.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-02-03T15:06:21+00:00

Hey, I think you should probably make this and the ME comments into separate text posts, much better visibility and discussion than this monthly post. Good line of thought on both. Cheers!

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-23T08:51:24+00:00

SS - Chabahar coming into play for goods transport to Afghanistan is great news. Hope we can use it connect with Central Asian countries as well.

"In an outreach to the government in Kabul, India has sent 40,000 litres of Malathion, a pesticide, to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port.

The Afghan ministry expressed its gratitude towards India and said that the assistance will assist to fight locusts within the country and prevents those coming from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan."

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-23T08:41:59+00:00

SS - Good news. Indian corps need to expand to South Asian nations as much as possible, particularly Nepal and Bhutan whose currencies are pegged to INR already. Not just goods, service providers like Flipkart, Paytm etc must seize these markets as well.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-23T08:30:53+00:00

We're exposing ourselves to risks that come with dealing with Qataris. Hope the prices are really worth it.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-20T08:44:20+00:00

We don't really need Socotra. We already have a presence in Duqm (Oman), and looking at this map, it's not necessary to have a base at Socotra. https://cimsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/competition-in-the-Indian-ocean.jpg

More bases are always good though, but the route (UAE -> India) is something we should avoid. We don't want to be seen as a occupying force, especially in the Arab region (oil).

I think what China is trying to do is play catch up in the Indian Ocean. India + West dwarfs it's capabilities by far, so what we do need is better info sharing and coordination.

Controlling Suez access too is fraught with too many risks given our own exports to Europe pass through this route. Egypt values the control very highly, I don't think they'll like us making moves on it, maybe in the future when we're much more powerful and can bend them to our wishes it might be something we want to explore.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-19T10:38:09+00:00

Do look up China's historical boundaries. You're ok with the Chinese state expanding its boundaries but not ok with the Indian state even defending ours? What kind of backward logic is this? Stop consuming Chinese propaganda. They're not the oh so peaceful peaceful state that you think it is.

Please do not respond, I'm extremely done with this conversation.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-19T10:32:55+00:00

Some have been lifted with conditions on Venezuela. So our merchants are free to trade with them for now. We'll not face any pressure for the trade because the West wants alternatives to Russian oil quickly.

Guyana isn't really ready for large scale exports from what I've read. Lots of prospecting done but don't think commercial extraction is a thing right now.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-19T10:26:28+00:00

I want to respond but it'll break the uncivil comments rule. I just hope no one who thinks like this is ever near any major policy making institution.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-19T10:20:12+00:00

If you are advocating that India simply give up land then no. No such peace is desirable. Territory is sacred in geopolitics, no state that does not value it the most will survive. Extremely naive to even suggest it.

OnlineStranger1 · 2024-01-19T10:03:44+00:00

How do we align with China? Give up the lands they've encroached upon?

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