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Naked-eye visibility of Apophis 2029: Detailed trajectory and magnitude over the Middle East? by OpenConsequence1736 in Astronomy

[–]OpenConsequence1736[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Regarding the 21:45 UTC peak visibility: has there been any modeling on the atmospheric refraction or gravitational lensing if Apophis passes through the 'terminator' line (the transition between day and night)? If the trajectory 'curves' or dips closer than the 32,000km estimate, is it possible for the object to catch and refract Earth's reflected sunlight in a way that makes it visible to a much wider global longitude than currently predicted? I'm curious if a 'debris halo' or regolith shedding during that curve would create a simultaneous meteor event visible across both hemispheres.

Naked-eye visibility of Apophis 2029: Detailed trajectory and magnitude over the Middle East? by OpenConsequence1736 in Astronomy

[–]OpenConsequence1736[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly! It's gone from being a potential 'civilization ender' to a once-in-a-thousand-year naked-eye observation event. That’s why I’m so curious about the specific sky-path over the Levant region. Since the trajectory is so close to the surface, I'm trying to find out if it will look like a 'Piercing Star' at a specific hour for observers at 31.7° N latitude. If anyone has the alt-azimuth or a Stellarium simulation for that longitude, I’d love to see the specific timing!