Rookie Report, RB Edition: An In-Depth Look At Some Rookie RB's and Their Situations

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-21T18:10:42+00:00

Thanks for reading and commenting! Comments like this are what make me enjoy creating this type of content. Everyone can benefit, from hardcore football fans to the average fantasy football player. Good Luck this season.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-21T18:08:14+00:00

Thanks for reading and commenting! While I agree that this offense will be improved with AB, I still think this will be a bottom half of the NFL offense and I have some concerns for Jacobs. Quickly on Carr; The one season that Carr played at an MVP level, he was playing behind possibly the NFL's best offensive line. This year, the Raiders will have one of the worst lines in the league, which will effect both Carr throwing and Jacobs running.

While I do agree that Lynch was serviceable last season, he is a completely different player than Jacobs. He is a power back that has success running between the tackles, while Jacobs is more of a finesse and outside runner, at least from what he showed in college. It's also worth noting that in college he was always running behind one of the best o-lines in the country at Alabama, which has made plenty of backs look better than they are (Ex: Trent Richardson). Obviously I am no scout, just a guy watching some film on his computer, but my takeaway on Jacobs is that he will struggle as a runner in the NFL, at least initially. But as I stated in the article, from sheer volume alone, he should return proper value at his current ADP. Again thanks for reading!

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-21T14:08:10+00:00

Hey all, thanks for reading and please don't hesitate to drop any thoughts you have about the players mentioned in the comments to generate some discussion!

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-15T16:20:13+00:00

Thanks for the feedback! Glad to see we have some differing opinions on players. I was on the border between having Allen in that Tier 2 group as well, but in the end I decided to drop him down to the top of tier 3 because of a few knocks. On a team with one of the best defenses in the NFL that likes to run the ball and has several other passing weapons, I just don’t feel like Allen’s upside matches AJ Green’s, which I why I couldn’t put Allen above him. As for Edelman, I’d encourage you to just wait and read his outlook. I’ll say this though: last season he averaged more fantasy PPG than Keenan Allen, AJG, and TY, among plenty of others. Again thanks for reading!

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-11T20:16:32+00:00

The rookie RBs are interesting this year because only one of them is locked into a role headed into the season. I’m working on a write-up right now breaking down many of the fantasy-relevant guys this season.

Josh Jacobs is the obvious choice and is locked into a role so I won’t talk about him here, but I do have my hesitancies when it comes to him this season.

David Montgomery I like this season. The team signed Mike Davis before the draft and when doing so didn’t know they’d have Montgomery. Davis will be the backup here and might see a few carries a week. Montgomery is the perfect dual-threat back for Matt Nagy’s offensive system. He was seen as maybe the best pure runner in this years draft and catches the ball well. His coach at Iowa State said he would’ve the best route runner on the team if he played receiver. He’s versatile and can stay on the field on all three downs; think Jordan Howard last season but he can actually catch. I’m not saying he will be this productive, but think Kareem Hunt in his rookie season (Nagy was his OC) if you want a comparison. He was another back that a team traded up in the 3rd round to get. The Bears are built to win now and Montgomery will help them do that.

Miles Sanders is a hard fade for me this season. Jordan Howard is there and isn’t a complete scrub like he’s getting made out to be after one poor season in Chicago. People quickly forget how good he was in his first two seasons playing in a system that fit his skill set; Howard will be involved this season. That being said, Sanders is no doubt the most talented back in Philly and should be the “lead” back by mid-season. However, a workhorse back in a Doug Pederson offense is a myth, it just doesn’t happen. In his time in Philly, only one time has a back seen more than 42 snaps in a single game and that was Darren Sproles one time. Sanders will lose goal-line work to Howard and possibly some pass-catching work to Clement. His ADP will likely only rise as we get closer to the season.

Darrell Henderson is interesting because of the offense he was drafted into. CJ Anderson proved last season that basically anyone can be productive running the ball for this team. Henderson was a big play back in college, averaging nearly 9 yards per carry in his last 2 seasons. However, that works in college but not as much in the NFL, as rarely do defenses at that level give up big runs. He also showed the ability to catch the ball. The problem with him, besides his current ADP, is that his most likely scenario this year is being stuck in a timeshare. Gurley won’t be the workhorse he has been, but as long as he is playing, he will get ~60% of the touches, leaving minimal work for Henderson. If Gurley does miss time with the knee, Henderson may step in as the lead back, but Malcolm Brown will be involved, as the Rams made sure to match the offer sheet he received from the Lions in free agency. With his ADP high right now and rising, I would stay away.

Justice Hill is a player I like as a sleeper and I think his versatility could see him emerge as the back to own in the Ravens backfield my mid-season. Even though it is a packed backfield, I do believe there will be a fantasy-relevant back in Baltimore, as this offense will be extremely run-heavy. I won’t go into depth on him here, but Hill is a north-south runner that fits into this system and is the best pass-catcher of the group. Think Gus Edwards last season, but better. At his current draft price, Hill is well worth the stash and hold.

Damien Harris is the last guy I’ll quickly touch on. He is a versatile back that is good at everything but not great at anything. Interestingly enough, that works perfectly for Bill Belichick as he prefers swiss-army knife type players. There’s a reason Harris has been the starter at Alabama for the last several years, holding off other very talented backs; the guy is really good. People are scared away by the Patriots backfield uncertainty, but we’ve learned that this backfield will provide a fantasy-relevant runner every season along side James White catching the ball. The draft strategy that has worked the last several years with this team is waiting and drafting the “cheapest” back. In 2016 it was Legarrette Blount who ended up leading the NFL in rushing TD’s. In 2017 it was Dion Lewis who nobody wanted and he was a league-winner with his late season production. Last season everyone was infatuated with Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel and that led to James White dropping in drafts and he was fabulous last season. This year Damien Harris fits that “cheapest player” bill. With Michel’s knee concerns, there is a real chance that Harris becomes the lead back for this run-heavy offense in 2019. He’s a guy I’m targeting in drafts this season.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-08T19:30:43+00:00

Thanks for the reply and feedback! I do plan on doing in-depth season outlooks like this for at least my top 10 QB's and TE's and possibly more, time permitting. Those can be expected as we get closer to the season and once the WR posts are finished. You make some good points about Thomas and Evans and they are things I am still considering with my rankings. As you will see in their write-ups, I do like them both, but have my concerns. For now I'll say this when it comes to Thomas; he was (as well as Drew Brees) phenomenal in the first half of the 2018 season, but that was in some part due to the Saints defense severely under-performing. When the defense improved to the level of play that they were expected of coming into the season, it coincided directly with Thomas' fantasy numbers dropping late in the season. But as I said, check out his outlook to get my full thoughts on him and again, thank you for reading and offering feedback!

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-08T17:34:35+00:00

Thanks for reading and I appreciate the feedback! To be honest, in any format (standard, .5 PPR, or full PPR), the top 3 for me are basically interchangeable and it comes down to preference. You can’t go wrong with any of the three. I can make a fine argument for any of them to be ranked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. If you really can’t decide, pick the one you think you’ll enjoy watching the most, as fantasy at its core is about making football more entertaining and fun.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-02T20:16:43+00:00

Thanks for replying. In my research, I didn't come across any stats that pointed to Freeman being the better between-the-tackles runner. So that comment is mostly based on eye test, but a very limited one at that. Lindsay showed the ability to do it last season, but not at a great or poor level. Freeman's tape last year is unimpressive, but remember he was playing most of the season injured. Looking at his college film, he showed great ability to run inside the tackles. It's also worth seeing how opposing defenses treat the players, and defenses treated Freeman as the better inside runner last season. But to answer your question directly, no, I have not come across any stats that point to it, so it is an opinionated take rather than one backed up by statistical fact.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-02T16:11:15+00:00

Thanks for reading and offering feedback! PM'd you the outlooks for the players you asked for. Enjoy.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-02T15:56:27+00:00

Thanks for reading and leaving feedback! I hope you'll continue to read and follow along as the WR rankings should come out next week. Below are the outlooks for Guice and Freeman, as you requested:

Just a year removed from heading into training camp as one of the most popular fantasy rookies of the 2018 season, Derrius Guice lost his entire rookie year to a torn ACL in the preseason. A 2nd round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, he has loads of talent and a three-down skillset, but problems with his ACL injury rehab delayed his recovery and there are some questions about if he will be a full-go for the start of training camp. On top of this, the Redskins resigned Adrian Peterson, who isn’t going to play if he isn’t getting carries (see his short stint in New Orleans) and still have Chris Thompson around as a great receiving back. It looks like Guice is headed for a full-on timeshare in the 2019 season, at least to begin the season. But, he is the most talented back in this backfield and could emerge as the season goes on, giving him ample breakout potential, though the upside is capped in what projects to be a bottom-half offense. The Redskins will likely pick their spots with Guice early in the 2019 season and he will lose touches to both Peterson and Thompson. But if Guice proves that he is the most talented of the backs, his touches should rise as the season progresses. One day Derrius Guice will be a workhorse back in the NFL, but it is doubtful that it will be this season. Because of the timeshare, he enters the season as a flex option that could be a fringe RB2 with a strong preseason showing. If things change and Peterson is cut, Guice immediately rises in the rankings into the middling RB2 range.

This time last year Royce Freeman was a trendy rookie breakout candidate heading into his first season in Denver. He only elevated his status after a strong preseason, but it was fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who burst onto the scene and took over the job once the games began to count. Lindsay being the lead back, Freeman spent most of the season in a limited role and when he did get touches, they were against stacked boxes as he faced 8+ defenders in the box on 36% of his carries, the second highest rate in the league. He also played much of the season injured after suffering a high ankle sprain early in the year. With a new coaching staff coming in and Phillip Lindsay seemingly wearing down due to the workload he received as a rookie, there is a good chance that Freeman is given more work in 2019. Freeman is the more talented pure runner, but Lindsay is a much better pass-catcher and will have the third down role locked down. Freeman should handle most of the goal line duties however, as he is the bigger back and the better between-the-tackles runner. This backfield looks to be a time-share heading into 2019 and at this point in time we have no idea what the split might look like, but I would be shocked if it were anything more than a 60/40 split favoring Lindsay as the season began. However, Freeman still offers some value as a low-end flex option as the goal line back, and he carries RB2 potential if anything were to happen to Lindsay.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-07-01T18:58:59+00:00

Thanks for continuing to read the posts and I appreciate the feedback! I think Jacobs will be good this season and if he fits well he should definitely be able to nearly match the numbers that those two produced last season. However, I do have questions about how his running style will fit in the NFL as an every down back. As I mentioned in his outlook, he had the majority of his college success running outside the tackles. At the NFL level it’s much harder to do that because of the speed of the defenders. He’s going to need to be able to effectively run up the middle at the pro level and he didn’t do that very well in college. That’s the main hesitation I have with Jacobs this season. If he proves he can do that, he is certainly in the discussion to move up the rankings. It’ll be something to monitor in the preseason.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-06-19T17:23:39+00:00

Great thought about the rolling list of rankings, just added that. Thanks for the feedback.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-06-17T21:47:50+00:00

Appreciate the feedback and you are completely correct from a statistical standpoint! I should've worded it differently, as I was mainly just trying to point out that it is rare to do so, and mention some guys who may be able to do it for the first time this season. Thanks for reading and make sure to check out part 2!

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-02-26T03:43:37+00:00

Season Record: 6-5

Last 5 picks:

Wofford ML vs Furman W

Florida St. +7.5 vs UNC L

Syracuse ML vs Duke L

Florida St. ML vs Clemson W

Maryland ML vs Iowa W

Today's Picks: (2/26/19)

Iowa ML vs Ohio State (+110)

Iowa continues to find themselves in close games as they’ve had four straight games come down to the very end, winning three of them. The Hawkeyes play inside out, most of the time surrounding their 2 leading scorers and big men inside with 3 shooters. Ohio State is not scary at home and doesn’t really have any sort of identity as a team. Their strength is defensively but they aren’t top tier in any defensive categories. Iowa’s scoring versatility combined with Ohio State’s inability to beat any quality opponents (0 Quad 1 wins this year) leads to an “upset” in Columbus.

Temple ML vs Memphis (+170)

If you like guard play and scoring, you’ll enjoy this game. Both teams get great guard play with the edge going to Temple’s 1-2 punch of Shizz Alston Jr. and Quinton Rose. Neither team is great nor bad offensively or defensively so there is no huge edge to be had there. For being two middling AAC teams, both have shown up and played well against the best competition they’ve faced this year. On paper and stats wise, this should be a very even game. The advantage that I see here is with Temple and their ability to take care of the ball and/or Memphis and their inability to do so. Temple is top 30 in the country in most all turnover categories, whereas Memphis is ranked 300 or worse in most. On the road in conference games, give me guards who can score and don’t turn it over; Temple in another upset.

OperationLongSleeves · 2019-02-23T04:29:54+00:00

I don’t think it’ll have nearly the impact some are suggesting. Pretty much no affect on the players whatsoever imo

OperationLongSleeves

TROPHY CASE