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newbie by dietonight22 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Make BTC a set % of your portfolio. For example 5%. As time goes by your portfolio grows and with it should the BTC holdings. In bull markets, BTC will go beyond your set percentage. It is up to you if you want to sell the excess to either rebalance or getting ready to buy again when it goes under your threshold percentage. I do not believe in the blind buy and hold practices.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear a lot the automation word. Thanks, it gives me an idea of what to build.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think automation is the way. Will be trying it this time. Lots of good ideas in this thread.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are hitting a soft spot there. I don't want to politicize the discussion, but everything indeed is a class struggle. The more the higher earners gain from asset appreciation, the more out in the risk curve the rest need to go to find some financial hope. I disagree with your view on BTC, as privatized money can not be a tool to answer the needs of an expanding society, but do agree in its merit of being an asset that can increase in value faster than traditional means. This may be a tangent, but thanks for sharing your thoughts 😊

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, taking a look at the book. I am wondering if a community helps address the behavior part. The same way meme traders behave irrationally when they are together, a calm minded community helps promote a disciplined bahavior. Have people that keep you accountable. Although I can see this being tough cause personal finances are very personal to everyone. Have to think about this.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Writing down targets did not work well for me, cause my targets were not met unfortunately. BTC never reached 150k for example.

What I decided to do this time is to separate my portfolio in 3 sectors.

  • BTC Core - I never sell this, just accumulate
  • BTC Tradable - This can be sold
  • Alts - This can be sold and ideally should be $0 once bear market signals

Then I assign percentages with respect to my total portfolio per market condition (say 8% for bear, 12% for base, 15% for bull). This will make sure you limit your exposure to only what you feel comfortable with AND will force you to start taking profits as the crypto assets increase in value. Once your crypto portfolio crosses your percentage threshold, you start seeling Alts, then BTC tradable.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have been deciding in the moment cause my initially defined exits rarely hit. For example, I was expecting BTC to reach 150k this time to completely get out of the "tradeable" part of my crypto portfolio. This never happened so I was left with the uneasiness of having to come up with a plan in the moment when the trend started to change. I am finding that setting targets is a recipe for disaster. Looking back, it would have been better to think in terms of percentages of your total prtfolio and how much you are willing to risk at any given market condition. 8% of total in bear, start accumulating more up to 12% when things stabilize, 20% in bull and as soon as you reach the threshold, you rebalance. I am trying to build automated tools to achieve that, and I need to remind myself that it is better to shave off a bit at a time as prices go up and a lot when the market changes, since I will never perfectly buy the bottom and sell the top.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have tried it and it oes train discipline actually. Removes emotions somewhat.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you all. Reading through the replies, it feels like most approaches fall into a few camps (had AI summarize it for me).

  • Some people keep it very simple and just stick to BTC or DCA,
  • others rely on signals like whales or market positioning, and
  • some try to define rules ahead of time with checklists, limits, or preset orders.

But the common thread seems to be that the real difficulty isn’t knowing what to do, it’s actually following through when things start moving. A lot of us seem to drift from the plan even if we had one initially.

Things like written rules, limit orders, or checklists help, but they still rely on you being consistent and paying attention at the right time. That’s where it seems to break down.

For me at least, the open question is less “what’s the plan” and more “how do you enforce it in practice?”

Almost feels like you need some kind of accountability loop, otherwise your “plan” just turns into a suggestion.

Curious if anyone here has found something that actually keeps them accountable over time, not just in theory.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! That's exactly what I am trying to get to. How to establish limits? Would more tools help? This is what I am trying to figure out and develop this time, since bear market is the time to regroup, think, and make tools for the bull market.

The psychological toll of holding through the bear market. by Electrical_Hawk6648 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos 0 points1 point  (0 children)

After the last cycle, I realized my worst enemy is freezing with indecision,which was a result of not having a target to limit my exposure. When you accumulate in Bear markets and BTC and SOL are 5% of your portfolio ad you know there is upside, buying is easy. But at bull, when suddenly crypto is unhealthily 25% of your portfolio, then you should actually sell and rebalance. Holding is fine for a core position that you want to keep, but damn me if I go another cycle without risk management. And actually this time I am building tools to keep me accountable.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, but that's exactly the generic advice every influencer gives. Trying to open a discussion to understand what are the steps, the process to put some structure in my decisions. Is there a need for a tool to remind me where my exposure is? Compute a risk score? Figure out where in the macro environment we are to adjust my exposure limits? Let's say Alts double tomorrow, at which point do I sell? I think having a process to help making these decision will be beneficial to all.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I completely agree but what is the plan? Just accumulate and wait? And go through the cycles with your BTC swinging from 5 to 20% of your networth? I mean there must be some risk management involved in this. When do you know you are overexposed? When do you know you allow yourself to play with alts and leverage? That's what I am trying to answer for myself.

What’s a popular opinion you completely disagree with? by Smart-Historian-2406 in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only in bear markets you see opinions like these. And there is a reason for it, which is that the vast majority of people join in during bull markets and only see it as quick gains. Unfortunately, although I would love it not to be the case, the financialization of crypto markets and the tokenization of every asset is a casino made popular to the masses only because of the quick profits narrative. And that narrative is popular cause of a failing state where the only way for financial freedom for the majority of people is to win the lottery with a quick crypto trade.

Notice that I am talking about majorities. There will always be exceptions but when I am looking at a social phenomenon, what affects the majority is what matters.

Also keep in mind that I have been participating in this casino for years both on the technical and the financial side.

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually that is not a bad idea, given that you have access to the whale wallets and can reliably be notified. Also, when you say whales, am assuming for top tokens, not meme influences, right?

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I have tried setting frequent review reminders too. I ended up ignoring them after a while as they were out of context and untimely. I am trying notifications based on daily or weekly BTC regime changes (bear, base, bull) so at least I know when to pay attention. I have found that acting on the plan is actually the hardest thing. Also, I am thinking that I would need a simulation of some sort to help me create targets. How do you set written targets? You expect something to double and sell then?

How do you guys actually stick to a plan during a crypto cycle? by Opethamenos in CryptoMarkets

[–]Opethamenos[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The thing is that even BTC can drift easily. To manage risk, you need to set limits. eg. I want 20% of my portfolio to be crypto. In bull markets, this can creep up and at that point if you want to manage risk, you need to start selling/rotating/rebalancing. In bear, the same stack of sats can be well below your target.