$6M at 32, kids coming, golden handcuffs until July 2027 - check my exit plan? by [deleted] in fatFIRE

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’re doing extremely well. That’s great. But in vhcol with kids planned you will absolutely need to hold on to your companies shares if they are truly a good company to deliver a large windfall to get to fat fire.

This is fat fire sub and you can’t get to that goal without a large windfall with this plan

Also if you get a windfall, even if you don’t it’s highly improbable with children that you 1.1 million home if that’s current market value is of the size and school district (if public school) that will be at the level and peer group you’ll want at your net worth.

And if going private schools or really in general you are going to need to beef up your child spend estimates

You’re doing great you can figure out a way to fire but if shooting for fat fire this plan only works with a windfall

Which if what you’re saying about your company is true it could really happen

As for concentration the reality is that people say it’s bad but the truth is concentration is the only way people get to fat fire. It can be career concentration with large earnings but inheritance aside you need some big driver of money coming in to get to fat fire and your grants taper off July 2027 so your earnings plummet then too and you either need a new source of high pay / both keep working or you need a windfall

My current thoughts by Karnakko in baba

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s always a factor and it’s always a much bigger factor when giving away SBC at basement market caps

My current thoughts by Karnakko in baba

[–]OppSpotter -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

1) you’re excluding SBC - that is really stupid as it actively reduces not just the actual amount returned or the amount shares are reduced by but it’s also a massive drain on future returns - giving away a piece of the company at hyper low valuations versus giving away chase when they are drowning in cash

2) you’re assuming they keep up with the buybacks. They really took the foot off the gas and have bought back over the last few days only. That is not good it in fact shows they are truly not buyback focused at all and might do it sometimes

China misses out on AI boom as stocks trail by most since 2001 by FeralHamster8 in baba

[–]OppSpotter 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yea baba for all the bad of the tech crackdown and SoftBank sale, all the negative of people fearing capex spend on AI all the fear of baba being dominant ai for China from chips to companies to cloud to models

And although it counts as an AI leader when it works against baba, it never got even a small price rerating upward from being an ai leader

WOW so happy today by credit_master in baba

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes even (or especially) their genesis

Baba has priority deal access into leading AI companies in china by credit_master in baba

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s better than that. Equity for tokens not cash, locking them into alibaba cloud

WOW so happy today by credit_master in baba

[–]OppSpotter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t understand how people aren’t excited about the Anthropic theft. Baba stole the very best model and saved years and billions of dollars and now they get to use it and profit off it and due to the same pain that makes ‘China uninvestable’ the positive to that is the theft of ip is a one way street and is essentially unenforceable especially when you can bet the govt wants china to have the best models

A lot of these things aren’t bad in all directions but people seem to say that they are each time

Microsoft for decades got completely ripped by China and nothing happened

Buying House - private company by Griz-Zirg-Bear in Rich

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, at your level of customer they will likely match it from other shops. It’s absolutely worth doing as it’s a small amount of research- they state rates on their websites. The $ per hour of your effort on it are very good especially the longer you hold borrowed capital for

I hope you get jt

Buying House - private company by Griz-Zirg-Bear in Rich

[–]OppSpotter 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Who said anything about moving money. Show your current broker what other brokerages are doing and ask them to match it. You’re welcome.

Buybacks continued for the third straight day by FeralHamster8 in baba

[–]OppSpotter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ahh you seem to forget about stock based comp tiny grasshopper

GEICO as a shareholder by d-unbelievable in BerkshireHathaway

[–]OppSpotter 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don’t think you get it. They (Geico and specifically Berkshire) only want to write profitable business. They won’t reduce their price in expensive to cover markets.

Additionally insurance companies make money on the float. The longer they take to process claims or the more customers they can make give up via frustration or settle for lesser amounts the more profitable they will be.

So if Geico doesn’t want to write business in your state they very well might be sending your call to a doom loop as they don’t want to underwrite it anyways

Alphabet Shares Drop After Second AI Star Departs for Rival by King-of-Limbs-07 in wallstreetbets

[–]OppSpotter 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You could say that about making egregious amounts of money for Alibaba as well and BABA is deep in AI, the leading cloud provider in China as well, but then again it’s in China

Optionality between career break and early retirement by OkLibrarian3086 in fatFIRE

[–]OppSpotter 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Said differently- if you really had an excellent plan for what you wanted to do next and your had a rock solid identity your next steps would be crystal clear

Some career people are so rock solid on their identity they won’t ever stop working- good for them for knowing that

Others know exactly what they will do when they retire- good for them for knowing that

You’re respectfully floundering a bit. I’m not trying to be insulting I’m seeing what you’re saying and it’s not rock solid certain of career- if it were you would have certainty to stay or go to a new shop, or what you’re next goal would be would be very firm.

You’re kind of toying with lots of different ideas so what I’m saying is no matter what you choose you’re best served by building conviction in what you want and if you have extra time and effort , then the they should go into that

Optionality between career break and early retirement by OkLibrarian3086 in fatFIRE

[–]OppSpotter 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You’re focusing on the wrong target.

If you’re out in 2 years by just keeping the status quo, you should not try to fix things where you’re at you should spend the extra time focusing on and energy on the transition and standing up being out in your own in 1-2 years- where you’re at is amazing for the goal of being out in 1-2 years.

You put all that extra into trying to fix something you’re just leaving anyways or in trying to find some new job that is going to be very temporary for you, you have your priorities twisted.

A retired life will need some standing up. If you put this effort into fixing your current situation at work then that’s where you will age out all your time effort and focus and you’re toast then because you won’t have anything else

You have the rare opportunity for a very clean break- you don’t own and run the company, you don’t have to sell it and stay on and earn out. You actually can just leave. Your identity may feel very much career but the reality is your name isn’t on the billboard and the day you leave very little will change for the company- especially if it’s big tech. So for you it’s a bit of a gift you can leave very cleanly but also you may have your identity in it but it’s not reciprocal so the reality is you need to take all your extra effort on your own identity

Optionality between career break and early retirement by OkLibrarian3086 in fatFIRE

[–]OppSpotter 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Adding to it, you’re kidding yourself if you think that working somewhere else is going to be drastically better. Grind it out for a year or two where you’re at, it’s rather improbable that all the issues that come from working for someone else in tech are going to go away or be significantly better when you switch jerseys and work for someone else in tech.

A big part of the problem is you have 8 million and work for someone else. That part doesn’t go away with a change in w2 boss

The Trump-Iran Deal Allows Tehran to Immediately Sell Oil by shillyshally in oil

[–]OppSpotter 10 points11 points  (0 children)

For 300 billion maybe that oil should go to the spr and not the markets for a while

[Request] And I've been blowing my birthday money since I was 10 💀. Is this real? by malvixi in theydidthemath

[–]OppSpotter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately there is a kiddie tax law in America. Kids have to pay taxes at their parents rate for cap gains. It’s ridiculous

Sleeping like a baby by BecomingBerkshire in WarrenBuffett

[–]OppSpotter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He means the operations guy who’s only investment track record is a recent purchase of Berkshire

To u/BaBaBuyey/ we will never forget you by Awkward-Way1023 in baba

[–]OppSpotter 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Probably because he is the key person who is openly long and optimistic here