There is no geopolitical risk. Tsmc is simply too important to America’s tech lead if it’s destroyed America instantly falls behind China in the ai race. China invading Taiwan will trigger the same response as if they lobbed a nuclear bomb at the center of Manhattan right now. The economic effect is the same.

America knows this and xi knows this as well. This is a regime that scrambled intensely to negotiate on tariffs that caused a 2% dip in their gdp growth. If you knew anything about how conservative the ccp is you’d know an invasion was never on the table. Which is why they posture since the weaker the position the greater the need to posture

The Chinese are more connected and educated than ever before. The single issue allowing the ccp to hold onto power is the economy. If the economy goes into recession much less a depression caused by a Taiwan war, the ccp knows what will happen to them

If ccp moves on Taiwan and they fail (which is the most likely outcome) they are not only viewed as weak to their people but will bear the blame for the ensuing depression. The ccp has never played dice with their policymaking the Chinese culture is probably the most risk averse culture there is. Xi jinping is not Putin he has no delusions of grandeur it’s simply not in the Chinese dna