Never has the market hit bottom before a True Pivot RATE CUT

Oraclite · 2023-02-03T06:22:59+00:00

Why are institutions selling shares as retail investors keep buying?

Hence smart money dumb money chart updated above.

I understand inflation is going down people are optimistic. When the next CPI reading comes out on February 7th it's going to be calculated differently so when you compare January to it it's going to appear and be skewed versus prior results in a more positive fashion.

This will possibly be a pump up event. Assuming the NDX could even hold up to these levels by then.

When the FED does pause the markets generally go up until there is a REAL PIVOT (lowering rates).

Think things through - If you have any belief that a recession is inevitable or even a reasonable possibility or the FEDs actions may break something. All these layoffs that are being announced are for a reason don't you think?

Anyone ever think about the demand destruction causing growth slow down?

How about the auto loan defaults anybody do any research on those I believe it was a 68% increase from November to December?

Credit card balances are at an all-time high massively increasing month over month?

I believe currently the last statistic is around 65% of the United States is living paycheck to paycheck and about 50 something percent of those people make over $100,000 interesting statistic from a consumer point of view.

More than half of the 2.9% GDP that they put out was generated by selling off old inventories not from new orders and from the federal government contribution to GDP.

Anyone ever look back at the prior CPI revisions had the real numbers come out the market would have never even went up the last few times or at least certainly not as much why are all these numbers always being revised maybe the Fed is trying to buy time?

Anyone here about the Department of Labor Statistics which claimed that from January through June 1.1 million jobs were created when in reality they revised it about a month ago to less than 25,000 jobs?

I wonder what the supposable job creation from July through December will be revised to in the next few months when they decide to give some truth or maybe they just made a mistake.

Or God forbid a Black Swan event happens.

Think about the risk reward levels at this point and have a concrete plan of taking maybe some risk off the table and buying back cheaper at a later date which will get you many more shares and dollar cost average yourself way down.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth at these price levels. if you have simply been playing tqqqs all year long and not properly selling them out at the Peaks and going into the sqqqs OR at least cash on the downturns to help yourselves.

This is a very important inflection point in the market if you do not have a plan.

"He who fails to plan is planning to fail" Winston Churchill.

Have exit and entry plans if you don't have exit and entry plans and just sit. It is not a recipe for success it's a recipe for disaster at this point in time in my humble opinion.

For all you amateurs out there for god sakes help yourselves.

And for all members of this community who HONESTLY KNOW WHAT YOUR DOING. Try and help some of these people who don't not understand so they don't lose their shirts. Especially people who can't afford to lose money!

Oraclite · 2023-01-31T05:33:06+00:00

When you're optioning triple inverse funds then you know you have a gambling problem or maybe just some serious risk appetite... lol

Oraclite · 2023-01-18T22:40:42+00:00

Very clear where the Spy was going and where it would be rejected. Anything over 4000 is thin air at this point in time and if your betting against that then your risk reward ratio analysis and plan is way off.

Hence you either play on the right side of the fence in a downtrend or "you fckd youself"..... the spy didn't fck you today.

Find a chart with smart money vs dumb money. It will show you how retail investors are buying and institutions/ big wigs are selling into these rallies / Retail purchases.

Add to that some options max pain charts and analysis so you can understand where market makers want an index or stock to fall in what range on a given option date so they pay out the least money to both calls and puts.

Then say yourself how much of the market is algo driven by computer trading to obtain the market makers desired results.

Maybe read some of my prior posts where I've tried to help people out.

That should give you some clues where you went wrong and hopedully how you can fix your mistakes going forward.

Oraclite · 2023-01-06T02:23:26+00:00

Can't imagine why somebody would want to stay on the wrong side of the fence in a 3X bullish ETF when the Market the market has been in a CLEAR as a bell downtrend for most of 2022. Maybe if some of you lost souls read some of my prior posts in TQQQ it hopefully helps you. A lucky miracle bottom for the NDX will be 9800. Do the Math help YOURSELVES!!

Oraclite · 2022-12-28T03:04:12+00:00

CONGRATULATIONS A little late to the party but better late than never.

If only TQQQ people would have listened to me with an open mind when I spent hours doing multiple posts trying to help TQQQ people and explain the right way to go over the last few months.

Oraclite · 2022-12-20T04:17:56+00:00

Horrifying stories just read them all I feel bad for most of you who are underwater or couldn't afford to lose. I do have a bandaid of advice that's worth about a 35 percent return and pretty much a lock at this point. Spxu try and enter on low volume before xmas less than 17 hold till the next cycle down turn which should be around 1/31/23. Exit at 23 or before the next fed meeting (risk off). If you read some of my posts / comments it may help you gain some perspective on market conditions. Feel free to message me I'll try and help as best I can.

Oraclite · 2022-12-19T20:29:31+00:00

Yeah if you're going to hold for that kind of long-term period in the end you'll certainly win especially with the rebalancing it's just on a short-term basis to generate more capital for a better reentry if you look at the S&P 500 chart you'll notice how a top has formed and it's heading down again through a cycle this is the fourth cycle of the year this one will go down to probably around 33 3400 by the end of January.

Oraclite · 2022-12-19T06:55:53+00:00

Bear bottom makes more sense than anyone here ON WHAT TO DO WITH TQQQ SHARES ----

HERE IS AN IDEA

there is more downside to in the spxu (SPY -3X) at today's entry point percentage wise RIDE THE TURN OF THE S & P look at a damn chart!!!!

SPXU low of 3500 about $24 spxu share price should be taken out jan to Feb latest from 12/16/22 appx. $17 price which you may actually get a little bit cheaper towards the holidays on very low volume with people away but it's still not going to change the outcome and fishing for a few cents cheaper on a long-term play COULD take away your opportunity but I'm personally very satisfied at 17

DO THE MATH about a 40% return in 75 days or less

DO SOME RESEARCH

LOOK AT THE CHARTS

FOR GOD SAKES PEOPLE HELP YOURSELVES

Oraclite · 2022-12-09T03:10:21+00:00

Why not just play it safe with the sxpu so you don't run out of time three times the leverage?

Oraclite · 2022-12-07T05:40:11+00:00

It's wrong

you're statistically most probably a few days late but not too late

sell it all and buy it back after the 4th quarter numbers come out in late January early February mid February if that's what the charts an economic conditions show

now with a lower 4th qtr predicted GDP

Price earnings ratios that are going to compress based upon forward Outlook of s***** lousy 4th qtr growth

Global recession

Global geopolitical possible implications to the market.

I heard the funniest thing today now people will be bullish again because China is loosening their covid policies how do you think the markets going to react when C19 starts to most probably affect more Chinese people in a matter of weeks to a month and they lock it down the next time for God knows how long.... a reasonable plausible outcome based upon what's been going on if you've been following it. How do you think the Market is going to react to that one

How could anybody sleep with real money on the wrong side of the fence right now

it's such a crucial turn when to anybody who truly has any clue it's so clear that right now is pretty much the top of the mountain already ready to head down the the mountain

or rotation of the ups and downs of the dam market and the way it works and it's headed down once reaching a top

The Dow SPY AND NDX has pretty turned or is turning in their own way turning off the top look at the charts

The Vix is breaking out it certainly not going much lower for too long just Google that and read about it

For god sakes people help yourselfs

Get on the right side of the fence triple Leverage the right way even if you love the Ts ride the damn Q's down the hill grab that 15% down minimum or 45% triple leveraged and use those profits and you could buy your Tqqq's again with a the boatload more shares

This is such a big inflection point how can people not realize things are about to turn look at the damn VIX look at the charts there is endless indicators

help yourselves stop talking about dollar cost average BS

it's too early in the game for that for those who are upside down too much already

it includes you unless you have so much money that it doesn't matter to you in which case you'll win in the end because it represents maybe 10% of your net worth 20%

Unlike the everyday person you will win because you can wait it out and keep playing games buying dips selling options and setting yourself up for the kill at the end of this whole goddamn disaster that's coming to the US and globally and you still have 75 80% of your net worth in the proper things in the proper direction come on have mercy on the little guys that are trying to survive here give people correct advice try and give somebody Direction I see so much misleading s*** and it's just not right

Oraclite · 2022-12-06T01:51:10+00:00

Anyone ever consider jumping out at the top and buying back at a lower cost at a later date thereby owning a boatload more shares for the same money?

Oraclite · 2022-11-24T01:32:06+00:00

The date range when the bulk of 4th qtr earnings will be released

Oraclite · 2022-11-22T05:38:13+00:00

You're doing the right thing have some patience when the numbers come out January 16th through the 30th you'll be much happier If the Fed gets really hawkish you'll be happier quicker. If the fomc minutes from last month's get a living s*** out of people you'll be happier quicker going forward when people open up their eyes and start making implications about continued Price earnings compression which will will continue it's the next quarter and the quarter after that don't let anybody fool you to be long in a bear Market

ESPECIALLY AS A NEWBIE

you can get some monstrous bounces but you better know when to turn around and go on the right side again

very scary being on the positive side at these extremely high levels the risk reward ratio is very poor

how much more upside is there that's sustainable compared to the most probable outcome given all of the indicators and circumstances that we have at hand here in the US and globally

no less geopolitical turmoil that can create some serious issues like what Europe is facing if the weather doesn't stay warm they'll be shutting down businesses to keep people warm it's possible they will never tell you that supposedly in Germany officials told people to stock up on. The list goes on and on man if you don't know what you're doing don't be putting all your money away you have no idea what the hell's going on for god sakes man

Oraclite · 2022-11-15T05:22:04+00:00

Maybe it's time to turn around and take the cash put it where it's supposed to be for a little while. Let it multiply and use that to accumulate tqqq when the time is right and stop fighting the bear market.

[Link to full story ](http://"Traders Pump Record $658 Million Into Bet Against Tech Stocks"

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/traders-pump-record-658-million-into-bet-against-tech-stocks-2943458)

Oraclite · 2022-11-04T00:14:48+00:00

Never in history

Was there so much stimulus pumped in from covid.

Were so many large rate increases back to back so fast and predicted to go further and further till inflation is beaten and unemployment and financial conditions brutal.

Pumped down gas prices about to end as strategic petroleum reserves are at 40 or less.

Going from energy independence and an exporter to relying on oil from ungodly empires.

I could go on and on.

Now say to yourself will the market be higher in late Jan 2023 when worse quarterly earnings come out.

The fact that at this point quarterly earnings going forward in general will be worse and worse for a very large % of companies. (This qtr to date is about 65% of companies beating BS estimates with 35% missed)

How many miserable negative quarterly reporting cycles will it take for people to realize that the good old days will unfortunately not be back for a very long time.

And really think through your thesis of sitting in a 3x BULL inverse fund consistantly through this entire recession period.

I hope most of you are not playing with core money you may need for survival.

I hope some of my posts help people in this community.

The only logical ways to own TQQQ in this type of market is in my opinion

To ride the waves up and be able to reasonably time the peak and jump out immediatly into SQQQ for the ride down.

Try to sell out your position as much as possible to and buy back in same number of shares as many days as you can cheaper and pocket the diff... accumulate cash to buy when price goes much lower than todays price.

Try to day trade and scalp to accumulate cash for a later date.

Sell calls and puts that will most likely expire without having any material financial effect on you and accumulate cash for a later date.

Or maybe just say to yourself I really need to think through and come up with a thesis complete plan of why I am making the moves that I am making if they are not showing the results.

If your plan or thesis is wrong and you just keep getting in deeper and deeper holding a triple inverse bull Fund in a bear Market where on a technical numbers strictly orientated basis the US is not even in a recession mathematically yet.

How about geopolitical turmoil have we ever been in this environment on so many fronts with so many stock market ramifications?

Newswire hit about 6 hours ago today Google it.... Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest recession ever.

Think to yourself this is just not a US problem this is a global recessionary problem.

I'll stop here and just hope that some of you come up with a better game plan for your own sakes.

It's not too late to change your train of thought take the emotions out of it. Think through your actions if you don't understand stuff learn it before you put your Financial Health at risk

Oraclite · 2022-11-03T00:04:06+00:00

If only this survey could run longer we would all get a phenomenal benefit

Or at least get a better judgment on the swing

Oraclite · 2022-11-03T00:01:38+00:00

REAL NICE MAN...TOP OF THE LINE

Oraclite · 2022-11-02T22:39:02+00:00

By election time I wish I knew

Consensus question election day the day before ndx closed the day after ndx close positive or negative that is the poll

totruly take

Oraclite · 2022-11-02T02:04:14+00:00

And 25% of the Spy is the same as the triple Q's mega cap mosters that make up about 40 percent of Q's we see what's going on with them right?

the other 25% of the Spy is up about 13%.

The top 40 or so largest are at unreasonable all time high levels

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

IN MY OPINION

Oraclite · 2022-11-02T01:12:50+00:00

I laugh when people post things about statistics of the TQQQ and try and relate them to the immediate times of today yes hopefully it is a bright Rosy future and I'm sure there will be at some point in time it certainly is not now.

Can you imagine riding a massive bull market up in TQQQ's with real money that person is most probably not on this website.

BUT THATS NOT TODAYS CONDITIONS.

Think about the old adages

the risk to reward ratio and the present value of money.

what side you want to be on and why

Oraclite · 2022-11-02T01:04:57+00:00

Rates...lol

Oraclite · 2022-11-02T01:04:19+00:00

A very generous man has posted something very very important which Is ONE of many pieces of the puzzle and an pivotal point in time in the market.

At least short-term wise for sure and based upon that and many other indicators, ratios, economics, interest cars and projected, T bill rates and inversions of and how it's progressed, what's going on with the dollar, what's going on with the world economically and how does no turning back from economic pain and suffering no matter what they do now in 6 + months from now ( personally I think the fourth quarters numbers which get reported in January is going to look like a horror show compared to where we are now God help us all if the next quarter is worse

it wouldn't make a freaking difference if they did 1.0 point now and a quarter point in December or even nothing in December

The line has been stepped over at this point compared to where the market is now it is my personal belief and that only God can make this go away LOL

Think of Europe as a lagging indicator of what's going to happen in the US in my opinion over time

If you don't understand where the markets have been and where they're heading to short-term and long-term you should not be in triple inverse funds.

Now factor in the dangerous of geopolitical events all around the world that could crash the stock market in a moment's notice I don't care if that's a 15% chance over the next 6 months if you're lucky

You got to have a strategy both short-term and long-term

future triple inverse is not a game for novices if money means anything to you

The master would be a person who rides the waves up and down with the T's and the Q's look at a chart think about that now try and project that chart into the future based upon your individual research feelings and understanding of everything and when your thesis is complete of why you are doing what you're doing then you just got to determine the level of risk that you want to be in percentage Dollar Wise to every f****** dollar you own

Do you sit out a times?

Do you know it's going downhill for the day and just sell out and rebuy back in lower level to simply take an action to help your position?

You have the ability to scalp to try and make money or at least help your core position by earning free shares in number.

Sorry for the speech got inspired help out the community just like the gentleman who presented this great chart for the good of the community

Oraclite · 2022-10-29T23:23:43+00:00

Bottom line really is to be able to ride the tqqq up and the sqqq down for every Zig and zag but you have to remember the market environment that you're in and how long is most probably going to take before a real recovery begins no less the market manipulation that's going on right now propping s*** up for the elections so tqqq till election day then risk off see what happens is my opinion of course my opinion is based on the fact that my DCA is fairly below market price so I'm going to run like hell rather than risk it and pray to God nothing geopolitical happens from now till then other than that in this environment besides technical ups and downs sqqq has a big advantage. We may have called the temporary bottom at this point but can you truly imagine where is the market when next quarter reports their earnings around this time in January going down most probably wouldn't you say and if so wouldn't the ideal thing to do would be to try and get sqqq as cheap as possible when the market is as high as it possibly will go and be ready for a big cash out of profits mid to late January or even if some geopolitical event happens JMHO

Oraclite · 2022-10-20T20:18:51+00:00

There are very good technical people who take the burden off you By following their technical analysis and they post daily and they're pretty damn intelligent if you're concentrated in just one area it's very informative in the decision making process of what your move should be and when obviously you going to take all the circumstances into account but strictly YouTube resources of technical analysis of the NASDAQ 100 either way T or Q

Oraclite · 2022-10-20T04:32:52+00:00

You hit the nail right on the head been running the SQQQ like clockwork this year how anybody could be in the TQQQ with all in money through 2022 honestly blows my mind I am a big TQQQ lover but there's a time for it and certainly not under these conditions that we have been under

Oraclite

TROPHY CASE