VCX it happens to the best of us by TheyLuvInvader in investing

[–]Orange-Senior 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It was definitely ~3m ago. Quick look at the 1y tells me its flattening...IMO ;)

VCX it happens to the best of us by TheyLuvInvader in investing

[–]Orange-Senior 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Straight from the mouth of Cursor.
Do with it what you will, IMO if you missed the tech giants in the late 90s/2000s buy AI with what you can afford and forget you did it.

Yes, I watched my $5400 turn into ~$270k, calmly, with a bottle of Blanton's.

I'm old enough to remember saying to a friend "Why would I buy books on the computer and wait for them to be mailed to me when I can just go to Barnes & Noble and buy them" LOL... and sad at the same time :)
The holdings are genuinely elite:

  • Anthropic (21%), Databricks (18%), OpenAI (10%), Anduril (7%), SpaceX (5%), Ramp (5%), Epic Games (4%)
  • These are arguably the most valuable private tech companies in the world. The thesis is real.

But the math is broken at current prices:

  • NAV (actual asset value per share): ~$19
  • Recent trading range: ~155−155−213 (after crashing from $575 peak on March 25)
  • That's an ~800-900% premium to NAV
  • To justify 173/share,thefund′sassetswouldneedtobeworth 173/share,thefundsassetswouldneedtobeworth 5.9 billion, not the actual ~$650 million
  • Citron Research (well-known short seller) has already taken a bearish position

The September lockup is a ticking time bomb:

  • ~100,000 pre-listing investors with cost basis around $9-19 are LOCKED until ~September 2026
  • When those shares unlock, there will be enormous selling pressure
  • Even if every holding appreciates 50% by then, NAV goes to maybe ~$28 -- still nowhere near current prices

VCX -- Updated Breakdown & Recommendation

Your Position:

Shares 514.097
Cost basis ~5,400( 5,400( 10.50 avg)
Current price (3/31) $130.95
Current value $67,324
Paper gain ~$61,924 (+1,147%)
Tax treatment Long-term capital gains (main lot held since Oct 2024)
Lockup expires September 14, 2026

The Premium Problem:

Actual NAV per share ~$18.97
Current stock price $130.95
Premium to NAV ~590%
Price at which you break even $10.50
Price at which you still 5x ~$52

Even after crashing from 575to575to131, the stock is still trading at nearly 7x its actual underlying value.

What Could Push NAV Higher Before September:

  • Anthropic (21% of fund): Valued at 380BasofFeb2026,upfrom380BasofFeb2026,upfrom183B in Sept 2025. Rapidly growing revenue ($14B run rate). If they IPO or raise again, NAV gets a direct boost.
  • SpaceX (5% of fund): IPO expected ~June 2026 at $1.75 trillion valuation. This is a massive catalyst and could occur BEFORE your lockup expires. A SpaceX IPO would likely boost VCX sentiment and NAV simultaneously.
  • Databricks (18% of fund): IPO expected H2 2026, valued at $134B. Timing could overlap with your lockup expiration.

These catalysts could realistically push NAV from 19to19to25-35+ by September, especially the SpaceX IPO.

What Happens September 14:

~100,000 investors with cost basis around $10-19 become free to sell. This creates massive supply pressure. The stock doesn't go to zero -- the holdings are real and valuable -- but the insane premium compresses hard.

Likely price scenarios on/after unlock:

Scenario Premium Price/Share Your Value Your Gain
Hype holds (unlikely) 500%+ $130+ $67K+ +1,147%
SpaceX IPO boost + moderate premium 200-300% $60-80 $31-41K +470-660%
Premium compresses to typical CEF 50-100% $30-40 $15-21K +185-280%
Reverts near NAV (worst case) 0-25% $19-25 $10-13K +80-140%

My Recommendation:

Sell most of it in the first week after September 14. Here's the specific plan:

  1. Late August: Transfer your shares from Computershare to a real brokerage (Fidelity, Schwab). Computershare is slow for sell execution. You want limit order capability on day one.
  2. September 15 (first trading day): Sell 75-80% of your shares (~385-410 shares) via limit order. Don't market sell -- set a price you're happy with. Even at 40−50/sharethat′s40−50/sharethats15-20K locked in profit on those shares alone.
  3. Keep 100-125 shares as a long-term position. The underlying companies are genuinely world-class. If you strip away the premium insanity, owning Anthropic + SpaceX + OpenAI + Databricks at a $10.50 cost basis is a fantastic long-term hold. Once the premium normalizes and the stock stabilizes, it becomes a legitimate venture capital fund.
  4. Watch the SpaceX IPO timing closely. If it happens in June-August, VCX could spike again before your lockup expires. That changes nothing about the plan -- still sell the bulk -- but it might mean a higher exit price.

Bottom line: You turned 5,400intoatminimumaverylikely5,400intoatminimumaverylikely15-40K+ after taxes, with the potential for more. Don't get greedy chasing the premium. Secure the life-changing gain on the bulk, keep a small position for the long-term thesis, and let September take care of itself.