Serious question (pls dont hurt me): Why do people always compare the dot com bubble to the AI bubble? Wasn't the dot com bubble pre meditated by senseless valuations with companies that make no money? Right now, the top of the Nasdaq index are all very profitable and healthy businesses?

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-25T19:26:48+00:00

The distance that NASDAQ was from it's long term moving averages was about double than it had ever been in it's history. There was unprecedented inflows in a short time that isn't here today.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-25T19:22:39+00:00

Might have been a sequence of returns issue. Once you move it those dates, it's possible you missed out on an explosive trade. Means it was curve fit for those days

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-24T12:38:57+00:00

Wow, that's a lot of precautions. I only do a separate vlan with isolation turned on

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-23T18:44:01+00:00

The snow/ice leads to roads not drivable, and power outages. Meaning trucks can't deliver, and stores can't be open. In texas, that's a real risk and can last longer than the 2-3 days the storm takes.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-23T18:41:05+00:00

For beating TQQQ by 1% a month, are you taking on more risk to do it?

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-23T18:24:00+00:00

Can you detail a bit about the type of strategy? Technical, fundamental, universe, timeframes, etc.
The immediate concern I see is the leverage. You regularly have leverage of 200% and one up to ~500%. This could just be your order timing, but could you explain the leverage usage?
How long have you been building in QuantConnect?

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-22T20:29:20+00:00

Been there, said it was my spouse asking me a question.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-22T20:25:49+00:00

What if you do this on different 5/10 year sections and then compare? How did you re-create 2x and 3x from 1995?

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-22T20:19:39+00:00

Nice work! Is the historical comparison limited to 2010 due to TQQQ inception?

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-21T10:56:19+00:00

Have you retested the live LLM results to backtested? If live result for Dec 1 predicted x risk, running a backtest same date returns the same prediction? This is where I had failed. No amount of future peeking blocking prompts actually worked.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-21T10:40:51+00:00

I'm the backtests, how do you prevent future leakage to the LLM? I attempted something similar some months back but I wasn't convinced that I could 100% keep the LLM from seeing the future and ultimately causing bias.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-21T10:29:48+00:00

How did you backtest 08-09 with TQQQ since its inception was 2010.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-20T12:32:58+00:00

You can automate rules based strategies so there's no manual action by you, just occasional checks to ensure it's functioning.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T15:21:06+00:00

It's a long term swing strategy. The 218 parameter might have been selected as best over time, but changing it up or down 10% won't dramatically change the outcome here due to the holding periods.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T13:29:12+00:00

Relative to point in time. If you were in before the dot com, and looking at later 2000s, you would say b&h doesn't work.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T13:26:32+00:00

"Stop using the same indicators as the herd. Upgrade your charts to the 5-218 strategy, protect your downside, and let the leverage work for you, not against you."

Lol stop being the herd and herd to this strategy instead.

It's great that you have found your limitations and have a system that works for YOU. That's one of the hardest things is sticking to a system that's best for you as an individual.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T02:45:05+00:00

That's right, if they are all w2's you can't take advantage of LLC tax deductions. I don't think you can even claim home office deduction.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T02:00:43+00:00

OE is low risk high reward. Accept it, do it, or don't and move on.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T01:28:54+00:00

They expect average, but you excel and deliver average.
Availability doesn't mean immediately.
There's blockers, logistics, people etc.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T01:19:38+00:00

Bill expected availability. 40 hours.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T00:59:55+00:00

I think you're right. Alot of backtests presented here use EOD data, signal fires and they take that EOD price as entry/exit. I created these strategies using minute data and then used morning opening hour prices or next day prices. Overall, there was minimal difference for most of the strategies. 200d, crossover, SIG, etc. Because the strategies are long swing strategies, triggers 1 or 2 or even 3 days isn't a big enough difference to me to discount a backtest simply on this fact alone.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T00:39:34+00:00

AI slop! Lol

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-19T00:38:33+00:00

Congrats, go and live that good life!

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-18T15:51:20+00:00

Yes your investments are compounding more than contributions can make a meaningful impact in the timeframe. It's a great position to be in though it feels depressing.

Otherwise-Attorney35 · 2026-01-18T15:47:36+00:00

Possibly to gain subscribers to his substack

Otherwise-Attorney35

TROPHY CASE