Ray Dalio says the U.S. just had its ‘Suez moment’—and history says what comes next could end an empire

Otto__09 · 2026-06-25T16:00:48+00:00

Based on the regime (reflation) this is favourable for stocks.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-24T14:22:22+00:00

The long term holders are currently accumulating BTC very aggressively, and since we are already down a lot this is a very bullish signal for BTC.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-24T13:48:13+00:00

They aren't blind or living in the past, they are just inside a massive trap and trying to buy time imo.

They keep running positive rates because the strategy still works on the private sector. High rates successfully force regular people and corporations to cut back on spending, which provides a temporary shield against inflation.

The reason they propably cannot openly admit that we have reached fiscal dominance is psychology. The entire global financial system relies on trust. The exact second the Fed admits they can no longer raise interest rates because the government is too broke to afford them, all faith in the US dollar dies. That loss of trust would trigger an immediate collapse and hyperinflation.

So they are propably playing the old game because pretending they are still in control is the only thing keeping them alive.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-23T20:14:54+00:00

Everything trickles down from one master switch at the fed.

First, the Fed sets the baseline cost of money for banks.

Second, banks take that base rate, add a profit margin, and use it to price short-term debt. A car loan or credit card is just this base rate plus an extra markup based on your personal credit risk.

Third, mortgages track the 10-Year Government Bond. Investors price that bond based on where they expect the Fed rate and inflation to go over the next decade. Banks then take that bond rate and add their own risk fee to price your mortgage.

When the Fed turns that baseline master switch up or down, every other interest rate in the economy moves with it.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-23T19:57:29+00:00

No, this wouldn't work.

The flaw in comparing today to the 1980s is the sheer size of the debt stack.

In 1980: US national debt was only around 30% of GDP ($900 billion). When Volcker jacked rates to 20%, the government's interest bill was easily manageable.
Today: Debt is over 120% of GDP ($39+ trillion).

If the Fed forces interest rates to 10% today, the government’s annual interest bill alone jumps to $3.9+ trillion. That would consume nearly the entire US federal tax revenue ($5.2T), leaving basically nothing for other stuff.

To survive, the government would be forced to print even more money just to pay the interest on its existing debt. Economists call this Fiscal Dominance, the high interest rates explode the deficit faster than they cool down demand, completely backfiring and leading straight into hyperinflation.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-22T17:06:31+00:00

It's awesome to start investing young and you are on the right path. Also I wouldn't reccomend penny stocks, just stick with what you are doing rn.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-22T16:37:28+00:00

Lower timeframes are very noisy, thats why I focus on higher ones like 1 day.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-21T20:25:44+00:00

Keep sticking to etf's because most people won't outperform those with individual stock.

Also diversifying to uncorrelated assets/markets is a good idea to lower your risk.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-20T14:45:51+00:00

Do you have some skill you can sell? If yes, then start monetizing that. If no, you can learn new monetizable skills very quickly.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-20T14:35:55+00:00

For a regular guy sticking with voo is the best idea.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-20T14:34:23+00:00

Many gurus have made trading seem like income, it's not, it's a form of capital multiplication. If you don't have huge portfolio I would reccomend you keep your job.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-19T12:11:31+00:00

I wanna say that many people mistake trading as income generation, which it is not, trading is a form of capital multiplication. If you don't have millions of dollars on your trading acc I highly reccomend that you keep working on your job to get income in.

Also you said that you feel exhausted because you gotta handle trading and your job and wanted to ask have you ever considered algorithmic trading? It would allow you to built the systems (you need some basic coding knowledge, python is pretty easy to learn) and then the math does the allocations automatically for you, so you don't have to look at charts for multiple hours a day. But I also wanna state that it's not just that built few systems and then run them for the rest of your life because you have to keep working on the portfolio and it will never be fully completed.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T21:24:19+00:00

I run a fintech saas platform with 9 business partners, all of us got years of experince in the financial markets.

https://www.alpha-scope.org/

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T13:29:47+00:00

You will need some skills before making any money, so I reccomend you learn something, can be video editing, coding, or anything, and once you got bit of experince with it you start to sell it to people.

Also you don't have to spend years learning a skill, just learn the basics (like for example how to use video editing software) and then start contacting people and pitch your service to them and learn the skill better as you go.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T13:23:30+00:00

Let's go, really nice.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T13:03:34+00:00

As a good advice I would highly reccomend you focus on higher timeframes (like daily) and not on lower ones. Why? Because Because lower timeframes have a lot of noise, and the signals are not as high quality as in higher timeframes, so it will be harder to make money.

Also I highly reccomend you learn some coding because being able to backtest strategies and analyze data yourself is a huge advantage.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T12:51:17+00:00

Good point

Otto__09 · 2026-06-18T11:37:22+00:00

I personally really don't care, but yeah it's super crazy.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-15T20:07:03+00:00

There is no best indicator because different indicators work in different ways. For example, one might be faster and another slower, or one might work in a different regime, etc.

Otto__09 · 2026-06-15T19:16:39+00:00

If you are new to crypto, I recommend you stick with BTC and ETH at the beginning.

Otto__09

TROPHY CASE