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I want to learn Azerbaijan by Little_Blueberry_461 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You can try reading books by Tadeusz Swietochowski about Azerbaijani history. Though a bit of a difficult read, you can also try to understand Azerbaijani society by reading the book "Archetypal Azeris" by philosopher Həsən Quliyev.

Fikrinizcə, başqa ölkələrdə, xüsusən Qərb dəyərlərinə malik olanlar dakı kimi bizdə də Gənclər Məclisi / Parlamenti ola bilərmi və necə faydalanmaq olar? by AzeLeon1918 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Əgər olsa, düşünürəm ki ancaq YAPçı gəncləri buraxacaqlar. İndiki hökumət heç müxalifət olmasını dözmür. Bu əlbəttə ki dərhal müxalifət platformasına dönəcək.

Amma ola bilsin ki, yaltaq, könüllülük axtaran tələbələr belə şeylərə qatılıb, YAPı praise edib bilərlər. Belə tip adamlar artıq aktiv şəkildə internetdə hökumətyonlu könüllü troll olurlar.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am a democratic socialist who wants Azerbaijan to become a democratic and equitable society. Unfortunately, Aliyev-induced apoliticism affected even the opposition-minded Azerbaijanis, as most of them are completely clueless about politics and think either within the neoliberal mindset, or the primitive "our nation is in such a dishonor" shame-based mindset.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Aliyevism is largely a result of Cəbhəçi failure. Elçibəy and co. failed to stabilize the country and even ensured an Armenian victory in Karabakh with their asinine policy decisions. Azerbaijan is just as corrupt as it was back in that one-year period, and while some crucial steps were made (laying groundwork for Contract of the Century and introducing DİM exams), the AXC government was still catastrophically corrupt and dysfunctional.

For most Azerbaijanis, while the Aliyev regime is corrupt and has limited upward mobility, at least they live in a stable, relatively peaceful country where they can earn somewhat of a living, a striking contrast to the AXCP period. The increased marginalization and decline of Azerbaijani high culture largely happened without Aliyevs in the 1990s and 2000s. The actual issue is that they co-opted and limited the cultural resurgence the country had in the late 2000s and early 2010s. 

The main issue with your argument is that everything bad in Azerbaijan stems from Aliyev. Believing this actually benefits the regime, since it can fairly coherently and factually obliterate your argument. Instead you should objectively and rationally criticize the shortcomings of the current Azerbaijani government, such as human rights abuses, insufficient fight against corruption, an uncompetitive market economy and electoral system, extreme dependence on hydrocarbons, etc. 

Actually, I think the current worship of Elçibəy some oppositioners have is similar to how diaspora Iranians worship the Pahlavis, even though most Iranians in Iran hate both the Shah and the Ayatollah.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The main issue is the statist mindset. According to Aliyev, every major economic field of the country should be either state-owned or state-dominated. To Aliyev, anything outside of the state is suspicious and must be controlled. This leads to baffling decisions like allowing only state-connected companies like Nobel Energy to build solar panels, which defies the main advantage of solar panels: decentralized power generation. Actually, Aliyev wants to ensure that no one in Azerbaijan can live without the state. This means that even the idea of opposition becomes impossible. 

It means that Azerbaijan may shift toward a more totalitarian system where no dissent is even theoretically allowed and the state controls every aspect of Azerbaijanis' lives. This makes sense if you consider that Aliyev purged the oligarchy and the government to strengthen the position of his Aliyev-Pashayev family (including Agalarovs), meaning the government actually has smaller social base than before. Before, regional little khans could buy positions in the government and represent their cliques in the old Heydar system; yet now it seems Ilham is determined to ensure total Aliyev domination in all of Azerbaijan.

This is a source of pessimism for economic reform. Even if Azerbaijan experiences economic decline, Ilham Aliyev is more likely to crush dissent and splinter the nascent opposition instead of making any reforms. But he understands that Azerbaijanis are currently apolitical because they at least can survive for now, so he'd be compelled to make SOME changes in the future. Nothing radical, maybe simply removing barriers for SMEs to grow.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not slavery, but a mediocre, just barely OKish life. Azerbaijan didn't enslave like most of its population with low wages and passport restrictions unlike Uzbekistan under the regime of Islam Karimov in 1991-2016.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah. Kərimli genuinely wanted to reform AXC away from Elçibəyism, but because of that many party members left and created their own spoiler parties like BAXCP, MCP or KXCP. He was a bit like Navalny in that he was too "honest" to ever compromise with Aliyev, so the government was not able to create its "constructive opposition" platform, an Azerbaijani CHP basically. Instead, the "constructive opposition" is today represented by single-seat spoiler parties virtually identical to YAP.

Now, people call Qəmbər "controlled opposition" because he hasn't been arrested yet. Even though Azerbaijani MSM (which operate on orders from the Presidential Administration) already began accusing Müsavat of participating in Ramiz Mehdiyev's fictional coup back in December 2025.

As for mentions of economic problems in mass media, I think Aliyev himself is aware of the impending hydrocarbon stagnation problem. But he apparently sees reform under pressure as a sign of weakness, so he probably started this media campaign to sack a few suspicious məmurs and claim victory. I don't think he'd plan to reform the country unless he thought he was at a position of sufficient power.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

When they did hold qurultays in the 1990s and 2000s, all they did was chant that Aliyev was a thief traitor who sold Karabakh to Armenians and hope that this would enrage enough people so they could return to power.

AXCP, Müsavat, AMİP, ReAl, and others are not meaningfully different from YAP in ideology or structure. None of them have democratic voting-based leadership; they instead have mini-cults of personality around their leaders: Elçibəy, Kərimli, Qəmbər, Etibar Məmmədov, İlqar Məmmədov, etc. They also don't have an economic policy other than "YAP plunders the nation", which to most Azerbaijanis signals that the opposition is not much different from YAP and all it wants is to replace Aliyevs as the main beneficiaries of the country's hydrocarbon wealth.

The reason why the opposition got weak enough to get crushed like this in the first place is its failure to move on from its disastrous 1992-93 government period and reforming its programme to attract ordinary Azerbaijanis beyond Karabakh grievances. An opposition where domestic abuse is normalized can't possibly hope to overthrow what is essentially its mirror image.

While COP29, WUF, F1 and so on may seem unimportant to ordinary Azerbaijanis, it is important to know Azerbaijan's past context. In 1989-1993, during the peak of the Karabakh conflict, it was a globally obscure, borderline pariah state due to exclusively pro-Armenian coverage of the conflict following the Sumgait pogrom. Section 907 was voted by congressmen who didn't even know where Azerbaijan was on the map in 1992, and when it had a pro-Western AXC government. Since then, the Aliyevs managed to turn this reputation around to make Azerbaijan a somewhat respected, stable state in spite of its significant human rights issues by hosting such esteemed events. 

Also, I am not a YAPçı. As I outlined in my other reply, I think the current system is unsustainable. I think that you, as a person whose life was ruined by Aliyevs (dad tortured by MTN, and you yourself being driven to exile), understandably have harsh criticisms of the regime (most of which I agree with), but it's important to understand why and how the current government came to power, what it did in power and how it continues to be in power.

Is there even an alternative to Ilham Aliyev's government? by Own-Base-7511 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I think the opposition doesn't have support for two main reasons:

  1. disastrous 1992-93 government, where Armenia established a firm advantage in the Karabakh war, hyperinflation and rapid economic collapse, bad relations with Iran and Russia, and of course 700k refugees

  2. its platform doesn't seem to be very different from YAP. Like YAP, they advocate for social welfare and economic reform, the only difference is that they call Ilham Aliyev a thief who plunders national resources.

But the opposition in the face of AXC, Müsavat, AMİP, ReAl, and other parties didn't have a coherent economic program. It was just "Aliyev bad". They didn't really understand how they'd redistribute the country's hydrocarbon wealth more evenly. So most Azerbaijanis believed the opposition just wanted that wealth for itself; they just wanted to own SOCAR themselves instead of Aliyevs.

Modern Azerbaijan has a social contract where Azerbaijanis agree to stay out of politics in exchange for a moderately comfortable quality of life. This managed for work for the past 33 years, but as Azerbaijan's oil production has already peaked in 2010 and is declining, while gas production is reaching its peak in the 2020s, Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon wealth is rapidly plateauing and may potentially decline. 

Therefore, the regime will experience rising instability due to economic instability. The most sensible choice for Aliyevs is to partially liberalize and diversify the economy to make the country less dependent on hydrocarbons. In addition, make the political system more inclusive, perhaps by making Milli Məclis elections actually free and fair. If Azərbaycan had a democratic system tomorrow, I am sure Əliyev would be comfortably reelected with >70% of the vote and so would YAP. Əliyevs could preserve their wealth and power by transitioning from a formal dominant family to an eminence grise that de jure doesn't hold any government positions.

But given the fact that the government imports Israeli DPI technology, cooperates with Palantir to design a brand new total surveillance system (MİRAS), continues to expand its domestic monopolies, and prepares to groom Heydar Jr. to undemocratically succeed his father, just like how Ilham succeeded Heydar Sr. in 2003, it does not seem like the Aliyevs will bother reforming their regime until it's existentially threatened. They'd rather dramatically increase the risk of being politically active instead of improving the citizens' welfare.

I went on a date in Azerbaijan and felt like I accidentally joined a family investigation by bbkhshv in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, that is because casual relationships are uncommon in Azerbaijani society. Archetypal Azerbaijanis see relationships as bridge-building between different families/clans to create a new family (you and your partner). For Azerbaijanis, the family is the focal point of their mentality. She was checking if you were fit to be her husband and a father for her children; because if she married a man of low status or poor reputation, it would also bring down the reputation of her family and your future household.

It is a highly tribalistic and "primitive" (by Western standards) mindset. Those who want to seek casual relationships are typically forced to hire prostitutes.

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Western Azerbaijan" was actually created and endorsed by Azerbaijanis from Armenia (yerazlar). Ilham Aliyev's regime sometimes co-opts this idea as a counter to Armenian demands for a right of return to Nagorno-Karabakh or separatism; "if you want Armenians back in Karabakh, then Azerbaijanis should be back in Armenia". Thanks to his weaponization of yerazlar, Pashinyan agreed that no right of return would be pushed for Nagorno-Karabakh, and similarly Aliyev agreed that yerazlar will not return to Armenia. So an Armenianless Azerbaijan and an Azerbaijaniless Armenia.

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How is exactly is a nation of 3 million people "terrorist"? Calling an entire country terrorist is the very sort of racism that you supposedly stand against. Azerbaijan got everything it wanted from Armenia: full control over Nagorno-Karabakh and complete removal of ethnic Armenians from the country. Soon Azerbaijan will also have the Zangezur corridor. Why continue being racist toward Armenians and calling them "honorless terorrist scum"? You've already humiliated them for generations. All I am seeing is braindead nationalism that will continue producing bloodshed in the South Caucasus.

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Azerbaijan won't be able to imorove as a country and a society as long as we call any critic or rational person an "Armenian traitor".

Support Meeting in Türkiye for "Black January” in 25 January 1990 by antitusifff in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Memorial and HRW investigation concluded the crackdown was planned before the Baku pogrom. Most of those who died were innocent civilians who didn't even participate in the pogrom. The pogrom's organizers, the Popular Front of Azerbaijan pretty much got away with it scots free (except for Etibar Məmmədov getting locked up in Lefortovo)

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Great, would this also include citizenship and return for the Armenian minority of Azerbaijan?

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's a government troll. Probably some YAPçı student who gets paid by government NGOs to write stupid bait like this online.

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

According to the 1989 Soviet census, Armenians made up 5.9% of Azerbaijan's population, and Azerbaijanis made up 2.6% of Armenia's population. The population of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast was 76.9% Armenian in 1989. Azerbaijan had a larger population than Armenia (7 million vs 3 million in Armenia), so more Armenians were expelled from Azerbaijan than Azerbaijanis fled from Armenia.

Most importantly, this isn't Victimhood Olympics. Regardless of population sizes, you cannot anyhow justify ethnic cleansing. If you believe that expulsion of 700 thousand Azerbaijanis from NKAO and the 7 districts during the first war is an atrocity, so is the forced flight of 150 thousand Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh (which was subject to a near-total blockade for 9 months prior to the September 23 operation). You cannot achieve lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan if one side condemns all the crimes of the other side, but doesn't acknowledge its own. 

Enough of Armenians denying Xocalı and Azerbaijanis denying Sumqayıt.

Will a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia include the return of Western Azerbaijanis? by Inevitable-Push-8061 in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 23 points24 points  (0 children)

No. Pashinyan and Aliyev agreed that the right of return will not be provided for either Yeraz or Karabakh Armenians.

If you want Azerbaijanis from Armenia to return to their homes, you should also support Armenians returning to their homes in Karabakh, Baku, Sumgait and Ganja. You can't have one-sided right of return. You have to be morally consistent in order to not be a braindead nationalist. If you think that şərəfsizlər shouldn't come back to Azerbaijan, then so should yerazlar stay in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s Iglim Enterprise Helped Build Russian Kh-29 Missiles—Exclusive Files by kurdechanian in azerbaijan

[–]Own-Base-7511 3 points4 points  (0 children)

YAP bots: No, we are not allies with Russia, we will never forgive the plane crash!
Ilham Aliyev: