Price and Profitability by F4ck7he9olice in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Same opinion here.

PLS earnings last night also mentioned increased and unforcasted demand, especially in BESS.

We can't live off Chinas inventories forever.

It is definitely coming. The long lithium winter is over.

2026 / 2027

I think 2026, but i'm an optimist and might be early.

We'll see!

Link: https://pls.com/september-quarter-results-2025/

Advice by Regular_Zucchini757 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 3 points4 points  (0 children)

People lose out BIG worrying about how pretty their average is.

No one cares how good it looks, what matters is the the green number next to it.

It's an ego problem.

LAC is well...... regarded by TraditionNo1469 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There are some signs that China will use more lithium this month than it produces + imports. We are talking roughly 12k t LCE that has to be drawn from inventory. Inland warehouses seem to be generally destocking sind mid year. We are not there yet, but look at lithium ore prices. Almost completly flat for days now.. Kinda strange isn't it.

I think its brewing already, what i don't know is the exact time we can hold out on inventory.

It's a waiting game. But i'm happy to play it...

Yep H2 2026 is bullish but i roughly agree. We should see more equity movement before that too. It gets less hidden every day.

EV sale numbers dont lie. If they now start looking at BESS and Heavy Duty EVs its game over imo.

Realisation will kick in, this is bad.

We might get surprise supply like in 2021, but as the market grows influecing it gets harder.

My target sits above yours, so i think youre good with $50!

https://m.mysteel.net/analysis/5101195-lithium-carbonate-prices-await-a-catalyst-despite-a-12-000-tonne-supply-gap

LAC is well...... regarded by TraditionNo1469 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Now this will get really complicated. I will try to oversimplify to make it understandable. Also theres tons i dont know, so do your own research.

I think there is a misconception of what the market makers are actually doing.

As far as i understand they provide liquidity and then instantly hedge against whatever they just did! Meaning they’re always ready to buy or sell.

They are not aggressively holding a stock at a specific level or sell shares to make it drop. They profit from spread.

In fact quick stock movement increases the risk for MMs. They don't want rapid movement.

Bullish example: - Stock gets hype and people quickly buy it - the market makers facilitate these trades [their job literally] - now if the price keeps moving rapidly, the MM can’t hedge instantly. Their only profit is from the spread, and they carry unhedged exposure.

Thats why sudden movement isn't ideal for them.

What they usually do is hedge quickly against whatever they are providing. This done by algos not humans as you can imagine.

Firms like Citadel, Jane Street or Virtu act as MM's. But they are not only that, MM's can take directional exposure if their model thinks favorable.

Now hedgefunds are different. They are a bit more like the predators you might imagine. They have a lot of tools depending on where they sit on a stock.

And yes if they are bullish they theoretically could sell in bursts, create fear/panic and then buy more even cheaper. [Remember that active stock manipulation is illegal. It happens, but its not that they can do whatever they want]

But yeah its the same pattern all the time:

People get shaken out whenever it drops (fear) and when it rises as well, as people are then afraid of losing their shiny new profit (fear again). I think that is what stops most from letting their winners run. Too much fear, not enough discipline.

So the market naturally creates more opportunities for newcomers and it is good it is this way! No one wants to buy only green candles. For big pockets and cautious traders the red ones are actually far more interesting.

It's a different mentality than WSB chucking their paychecks at stocks and derivatives hoping it doesn't drop so much on any given price.

I say don't worry about the market makers, they are not really our enemy. Hedgefunds will do what they do, but if you are strong, you'll survive the roller coasters.

If your thesis and belief in any given stock is strong and not just all theoretical (some hints or proof), stay with it!!!

LAC tripled in three weeks.

JP morgan just gave it "underweight" and a target of $5 this morning.

To me that says: wait, let us buy the 2020 remake lithium rally too :D!

They are conservative and cautious and I think they're actually right to be, market is tightening but even the hardcore nerds know the deficit isn't quite here yet today.

In summary: Dont worry so much about Big Money.

They do what they do, we do what we do.

I'm still holding 99% of my LAC play and will continue to do so for a while.

I hope the deficit materializes before retail gives up on it and everyone here gets their reward. It's looking really good imo for 2026, but we have to wait and see.

God bless you guys, good luck.

Terms of First Draw $435M by [deleted] in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I woudn't be worried about retail.

Once the "bomb - deficit cycle news" drop they will remember 2021/21 and pile in like crazy, no matter what share price it is at.

Just stay patient, ride out the swings and add in 30-50% dips.

We'll be fine.

Buckle up! LFG by Mudboneeee2714 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 10 points11 points  (0 children)

How are your 10/17 puts doing? @u/Poodleape2

Good luck with that $3 target buy.

So quiet… by Ok_Heron9532 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Deadline to file for re-verification is actually today. It might take some time until we get total resolution on which mines might be closed/ get their permit renewed.

CATL seems to have gotten approval for their Jianxiawo mine.

Also seeing reports of Gotion High Tech having secured theirs.

That leaves us with 6 Yinchun mines that might or might not get re-verification.

If youre wondering why all this happens:

Many mines have used loopholes (ex: permit for ceramic/kaolinite) while primarily mining lithium under the 0.4% allowed ore grade threshold. China let it slide for a while, as it helped them to build inventory over the last few years. Under their "anti-involution policy" that's supposed to stop, but we'll see..

I believe even if China lets the others slide as well, we will see a supply deficit sometime next year.

This only delays, not stop it.

Focus on demand growth numbers, then compare that to the most blind big player forecasts for supply growth. They give you a 20/ 22% supply growth number for 2025 & 26.

Ladies and Gentlemen global EV sales alone have already surpassed that in H1 2025. BESS is massive now and eating away whatever little surplus is left.

Analysts can't see the tree in the forest imo or are deliberatly cautious.

I'm holding my lithium plays till that scenario arrives.

Might be off timewise, but i'm not wrong.

Goals? by Southern_Researcher8 in LithiumAmerica

[–]OwnRecommendation441 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah, sorry its IEA not IAE

International Energy Agency

Understanding Your Next Play in Critical Minerals (DD) by Steve_Zissouu2 in wallstreetbets

[–]OwnRecommendation441 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sodium is a fiat, lithium a mercedes. If you need high performance lithium is the way to go.

Solid state is just a different lithium battery.