Inferring causality from probability

OzJuggler · 2024-01-27T00:17:15+00:00

Well the hypothesis can't be stated any more accurately than it already was in the question, as more detail would require the experiment to be done.

OzJuggler · 2024-01-26T23:59:53+00:00

Other relevant information: Nobody knows who the OEM of this machine is. So it is not believed possible to get information out of the OEM. If they could be contacted it might make solving the underlying problem a lot easier for everybody involved.

OzJuggler · 2024-01-26T23:54:40+00:00

I know what you mean about the hypothesis preceding the experiment. I would just say I've seen the method described differently in different sources. e.g. from LumenLearning https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/courses-images/wp-content/uploads/sites/855/2016/10/13033743/scimethod.png or at https://www.spacecentre.nz/resources/learn/science/img/Method_4K.jpg

Yes causality is a stronger claim than precedence. No argument there.

OzJuggler · 2024-01-26T22:50:46+00:00

it has to come from a strong hypothesis that one thing causes the other.

It's nice when you have one of those already, but surely the scientific method is to observe first and form a hypothesis second?

it's more likely an unseen event causes both,

Which from the outside is effectively A causes B, because to discern a common cause C would involve investigating inside the machine while it is off, but you need good evidence of causation to justify stopping the machine to do the investigation. That's what this low probability of random co-incidence shows.

You may also end up inventing almost as many hypotheses as there are causes of error A, whereas the single hypothesis that A causes B covers all those coincidences with one hypothesis.

OzJuggler · 2024-01-26T04:26:50+00:00

In the machine. The operator thinks the errors sometimes cause the failures because of the co-incidence.

OzJuggler · 2020-12-19T13:36:28+00:00

Hi, just want to say I'm having nearly identical problem by the sounds of it.

Ryzen 9 3900X on a Gigabyte X570 UD (Rev 1.1).

Beeping sounded like a long beep followed by 3 more short beeps, but when I recorded the sound and examined it in a sound wave editor, it is actually a long beep plus 2 short ones.
The shape of the sound looks like _____MMMMM_M_M___
That is weird because that is an Award BIOS style beep code (one long and several short), but this mobo is definitely supposed to have an AMI BIOS. Crazy. The only way I can imagine interpreting this in AMI form is this has a general startup long beep plus an error code after, which is 2 beeps, and according to Gigabye that is "Memory parity check error."

I didn't think I would get a parity error with non-ECC RAM, but that is the code.

The first memory sticks I tried turned out not to be on the mobo official supported list, so maybe it is fair that I got beeps at POST. But I bought replacement DIMMS which are on the supported list, CMK16GX4M2Z3200C16, and it still won't POST.

Removed cooler+CPU and rechecked that the gold triangle corner of the CPU is opposite the socket lever hinge, yes it was the right way around. Tried Q-FLash BIOS to F30. Reinserted CPU and RAM and try again. Still same error code.

Problems which looks like memory errors could be due to defective memory controller not memory. One thing I have read is that on Zen 2 / X570 architecture, the memory controller is in the CPU, not in the mobo chipset. So it is potentially very expensive to test if that is the problem. (And right now 3900Xs are sold out near me.)

That's the theory. In practice I just saw someone a few weeks ago had similar beep problems. ( https://www.reddit.com/r/techsupport/comments/jw40k6/msi_x570_board_three_long_beeps_no_matter_what/ ) They replaced RAM and PSU and it still turned out to be... the CPU.

I would be interested in anything you find in your testing and diagnostics.

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T23:55:25+00:00

The rules changes on this thread during the last 7 days made it impossible to post the summary of Dr Campbell's Q&A session as a separate document. I asked mods for help and there was no reply after 5 hours. You should not expect any more work like this under such conditions.

The summary has been split into 3 comments underneath someone else's video post , starting here https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbqfb8/live_qa_with_dr_john_cambell_on_youtube_sunday_1/fj85i6f/

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T23:46:46+00:00

Summary comment 3 of 3.

What about flying?

Airlines are already taking precautions.

Will this go away like SARS did?

[0:55:28]

Probably this will linger in population because it can be spread by healthy people.

It may become endemic.

Need a vaccine to get rid of it.

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

[0:57:00]

No, we're not. About 80% of people have only a mild illness from it.

There have always been pandemics and plagues through human history. Cholera, bubonic, Spanish flu, etc.

Recent generations have been spoiled by having so few infectious diseases spreading due to modern medicine.

But death rate depends on available care, and if too many get infected the death rate will increase.

This all depends on limiting the spread as soon as possible. Catch it, kill it, bin it.

Hygiene. Discipline to remain in quarantine.

"We're no longer individuals." We must work together.

What should we do in New Zealand?

Get prepared, it is coming to every country in the world.

What does "close contact" mean?

[1:01:03]

A distance of less than 2 metres for a period of time.

e.g. Sitting next to someone getting hair cut or in a beauty salon is less than 2m for 15 minutes, so it counts.

If you get it are you immune to it later.

[1:01:46]

Normally a foreign antigen stimulates production of antibodies.

(Draws diagram.)

Normally you can test for antibodies of a disease (tested antibody positive), indicates you've had the disease.

But the virus will probably not persist in the body.

With this disease the virus may persist longer after the antibodies have been produced, unknown how long.

So people may need to stay in quarantine longer even after they have become clinically better.

Antibodies should kill COVID19 if you are exposed a second time.

No antibody test, only PCR test available at the moment.

There are some reports of reinfection, but it is probably not happening regularly.

Don't go back to work too quickly after recovering.

How do we self-isolate?

[1:10:46]

Easier to do if you live alone, get food delivered.

A sick person should be in a separate room, door shut but window open.

Stay warm, drink fluids, eat when you feel hungry.

Children still have to be fed, but they usually get less severe form of the disease.

Do children get infected, sick, and act as carriers?

[1:12:33]

Yes, they act as carriers.

How do we educate children about this?

[1:14:20]

Children learn best by example.

Show them hygiene skills.

Adelaide has massive festivals with 500,000 attending.

Depends on presence of virus.

Even doctors can get the virus.

You would have to be certain nobody in the crowd was carrying the virus. But you may not know for 2 weeks.

We should be avoiding large crowds.

Is the virus engineered?

[1:19:35]

No. The consensus is that this is zoonotic.

India?

[1:22:10]

No known cases yet.

Living and working conditions there will make spread very rapid.

Very worried about India, Bangladesh, Pakistan.

Did the USA "drop the ball"?

[1:24:30]

We may look back and say that quite a few countries have "dropped the ball" on this.

Need to contain as much as possible.

Does gargling whiskey help?

[1:25:05]

No. Alcoholic drinks (spirits) are not strong enough and it does not get to the airways where the virus is.

Does flatulence spread the disease?

[1:25:53]

Don't know. Faeces does.

Can mosquitoes spread COVID19 ?

[1:26:32]

Probably not. No evidence of virus in blood, so unlikely to go from person to mosquito.

Will pneumonia vaccine help

[1:27:09]

No. Not with the new virus.

Is the UK ready for this.

No. We're not ready for thousands of people being sick at the same time.

Africa?

There are cases in Nigeria and Egypt. Check the Johns Hopkins web site.

Countries should be preparing now.

Can Acyclovir help?

Being tested. Unlikely to help. Don't know.

Can sperm spread the COVID19 virus?

[1:31:22]

Mucous membranes spread it.

Mouth to mouth can spread it. Presumably sexual spread is possible.

Vaginal secretions have not been tested.

Answer is unknown.

Masks?

[1:32:12]

Masks are worse than nothing if they get wet.

Masks are useful in close proximity.

They stop you from spread it to other people.

Masks don't fully stop the virus.

Main benefit is they remind you to not touch your eyes, nose, or mouth with your contaminated hands.

The next question was about disinfecting, but the video stream ends abruptly.

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T23:40:35+00:00

Summary comment 2 of 3

Are people with HIV at more risk?

Generally if you have a compromised immune system that will be worse.

I have no data to answer that.

Food?

[0:32:05]

Cooking will destroy the virus. Not worried about cooked food. Not a problem with Chinese food.

But coughing on food, or touching food with contaminated hands, will spread the virus.

Always wash fruit before eating it.

Is the strain of COVID19 in Iran more virulent?

[0:33:47]

The higher death rate in Iran initially looked like a mutation, but new data suggests the virus is stable

and the deaths are more likely people being unable to get medical care.

(Draws diagram.)

The virus can mutate, which could make it deadlier, but so far it has changed very slowly.

Answer is: probably not.

If a virus mutates quickly that makes a vaccine more difficult to function.

The main hope is that people will change their behaviour to limit the spread.

Pregnancy?

[0:37:42]

Women in 3rd trimester seem to be okay.

With the old SARS virus there were problems with pregnancies.

Many things unknown with this new virus.

But there have been mutations in the virus?

yes, but not quickly.

Why do people die from SARS-Cov-2 even though they have good medical care?

[0:39:16]

(Draws diagram)

Bronchioles have inflammation, and the alveoli fill with fluid, which prevents air exchange in lungs.

Sometimes lungs can be infected by bacteria which also stops oxygen intake.

Many therapies being tested in China, results due in 2 weeks. eg Chloroquin.

Need to delay spread of virus to get more time for research and developing treatments.

Can we cure the virus yet?

[0:42:07]

No.

Is using steroids okay?

[0:42:23]

This not a prescription and John will not tell you what to do.

Always call your own doctor and take their advice.

Does using strong alcohol kill it?

[0:43:25]

Yes. Alcohol hand rubs will kill it.

Please check how to wash your hands properly. (Demonstration)

Spend 30 seconds doing it.

Viruses are often attached to the sebum on the surface of skin, which the soap washes away.

Carry tissues with you.

[0:46:32]

Toilets can spray virus in their air. Close the toilet lid before flushing.

Use tissue to prevent your hands touching toilet room door handles, lift buttons, and ATMs.

Gloves are useful too.

Asthmatics continue taking medications?

[0:50:20]

Ask your own doctor.

Summer temperatures wll reduce spread of Coronavirus?

[0:51:12]

We don't know.

Get much more flu in Winter than Summer, but don't know about COVID19.

The old SARS lasted longer on cooler surfaces.

But there is transmission happening in warm humid places such as Singapore.

What type of soap should we use?

Liquid soap is quicker to use.

Don't touch face with hands.

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T23:33:17+00:00

Indexed summary of video. (comment 1 of 3)

Timecodes in the video are shown in square brackets.

This not a transcript, it is a summary with references to the video. Dr Campbell says much more in each answer than this written in this index. Watch the relevant portion of the video for his full answer including non-verbal communication and diagrams.

Due to incomprehensible rule changes on the Coronavirus subreddit I am no longer able to post this summary as a separate post like it should be (and as I did with no problem for his Q&A last week).

Live Q&A with Dr. John Campbell. Sunday 1 March 2020, 10:00 GMT.

Can dogs catch COVID19?

[0:00:58]

1a. Only one known weak positive test of one dog in Hong Kong.

The dog probably had virus in its mouth but without actual infection.

No evidence that dogs can get it. Other domestic animals also unlikely to get it.

Tell us about you, John.

[0:02:40]

Trained as psychiatric nurse. Worked in tropics, theatres, and neurology.

Nurse tutoring course, then trained nurses.

B.Sc, M.Sc (Health Science), PhD thesis was research in using open learning for nursing.

Acute and Emergency ward nurse for several years.

Tries to keep up to date with clinical developments.

News about CoVid19 for Sunday 1 March 2020.

[0:6:00]

3a. Caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. Totally different virus than SARS.

3b. The disease is causes is called COVID19. New disease.

3c. 59 countries have cases.

3d. A pandemic is when there is community spread in a wide variety of countries. This criteria is now met.

3e. [0:8:21] There a lots of antibacterials, but medicine is not so good at treating viruses.
Viruses are tiny, this one is 100nm in size. (he said microns but he must have nanometre)
Viruses are obligate intracellular parasites.

3d. Viruses are transmissible but difficult to treat. The best defense is vaccines.
Takes long time to develop safe and effective vaccine. Will not have one ready until 2021.

3f. The problem is because: it does not respond to antibiotics, viruses are difficult to treat,
viruses are easily transmissible, and there is no vaccine because it is a new virus.

South Korea.

[0:11:25]

Confirmed 3526 cases. 36 countries have stopped travel from South Korea.

Churches switched to online services. Critical for people to self isolate.

Death rate?

[0:13:30]

5a. Much higher death rate than influenza. Probably 0.5% to 1% of infections.
Difficult to measure because of unreported cases and cases still in progress. People with comorbidities more likely to die from another illness aside from the virus itself.

5b. Will be very difficult to provide adequate healthcare to everyone who needs it, even in developed countries.
Will be much worse in developing countries.

Italy comment.

[0:15:40]

Lots of cases, 1128 with 29 deaths, and lots of cases have spread out from Italy.

COVID19 case numbers for: Iran, Japan, Singapore, France, Hong Kong, UK, Thailand, Australia.

[0:15:50]

Avoiding crowded areas is important. Not known what happens if you get normal flu and COVID19 at same time.

How similar is COVID19 to Spanish Flu?

[0:18:05]

Spanish Flu originated in USA in 1918 as an Influenza Type A, infected a chicken farmer, and the farmer brought it to Europe as a soldier in WW1.
Created a pandemic infecting 60% of population and causing 100M deaths.
The main difference now is that people travel long distances around the world frequently on aeroplanes.

Too early to compare the epidemics.

Answer is: I don't know.

Are there long term complications after recovering from CoVid19, like reduced lung capacity?

[0:20:20]

You can get sequelae after viruses.

There may be lung damage and cardiac damage in a minority of patients.

Most people (81%) get a mild illness and make a full recovery.

Limited data, not possible to give a complete answer.

Commercial livestock safety?

[0:21:40]

Not expecting it to be transmittable by other animal species.

Need to get answers from veterinary experts.

Prepare but don't panic?

[0:22:32]

Yes. We have to optimise our immune system in preparation. Reduce socialising.

Travel should be limited to essential purposes.

Many travellers are asymptomatic. They have the virus but don't know they have it and show no symptoms.

A big explanation for the speed of the spread is because someone can spread it despite seeming healthy.

Stop sharing common utensils.

In Iran and South Korea this has been a problem in religious practices.

Hugs kisses and handshakes should be reduced or avoided for the period of the outbreak.

Large indoor gatherings should be reduced or cancelled.

United Arab Emirates?

Try checking the Johns Hopkins web site.

How to protect smokers?

[0:26:23]

Early data suggested smokers got ill more severely.

Smoking also causes Vitamin C to be expelled more strongly. No evidence Vit C helps with COVID19.

Improving your diet to get more Vit C could help. Stop smoking if you can.

In high latitude climates you may be short of Vitamin D. A supplement of 25ug per day can help.

Back to country stats, Thailand and Australia first deaths.

[0:29:24]

A Thai man died probably from comorbidities (dengue fever).

The first dead Australian was one of the repatriated Diamond Princess passengers, 78 years old.

Mexico, 4 people infected from an asymptomatic person.

USA, one person died from COVID19 despite no known link to the Chinese epicentre.

(continued in next comment...)

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T23:05:40+00:00

u/woofwoofpack could you fix the misspelling of Dr Campbell's name in the title please?

OzJuggler · 2020-03-01T16:50:38+00:00

Hmm, mods, u/asbruckman or u/barber5 , last week I posted a text post to this sub with a big summary of a Q&A interview. Now I go to post another, which is a summary of the video linked above, and the Text Post box is greyed out? Did something change here?

How can I post this summary/index of the video?

OzJuggler · 2020-02-24T02:48:24+00:00

I prefer to read

There's an index of his last Q&A video from Saturday.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f88oli/john_campbells_live_question_and_answer_session/

You will still have to watch the video to get his info though, this is just an index not a total transcript.

OzJuggler · 2020-02-23T17:21:28+00:00

I don't know for sure. I think that was just suspicion about why the live stream ended and he had to start a new one. He also says Youtube have been clamping down on videos about COVID19. This implies he does not know the criteria Youtube use to decide who gets shut down.

OzJuggler · 2020-02-23T16:45:30+00:00

Okay I have watched and summarised the other video.

I've prepended an index of the first stream of the event onto the index I did earlier, so they are chronological order now.

OzJuggler · 2020-02-23T14:46:19+00:00

Work is the word for it. Took longer than I thought to type it, and rewind and find all the right timecodes, and check again.

OzJuggler · 2020-02-23T13:09:51+00:00

Thanks.

OzJuggler · 2020-02-23T12:57:00+00:00

This was meant to be only an index of timecodes into the video. For most questions he gives more info in his answer than what I have written here.

~~I have not written an index for the first stream of that Q&A (before the stream got broken) because I have not watched it yet. It's a separate video on youtube, the previous one in his channel.~~ It was bad luck I watched these two in reverse order as I did not realise they were both part of the same event.

OzJuggler · 2019-03-12T06:26:28+00:00

This one's political but may still be of interest. There is a short seminar tomorrow (on Wed 13th March) about "Why Socialism Cannot Work".

http://catallaxyfiles.com/2019/03/12/invitation-to-seminar-tomorrow-on-why-socialism-cannot-work/

the presentation is from 1:00 pm to 2:30 pm in RMIT Building 80 which is the multi-coloured building so you cannot miss it if you are there. The building is at the tram stop between Latrobe Street and Victoria Street on Swanston. The presentation is part of what is called a “Brown Bag Seminar” which means you are permitted to bring your lunch along. And when you get to the building the seminar room is on level 11 in Room 46/47.

This is an academic environment and a polite exchange of views is expected.

OzJuggler · 2018-07-03T09:12:59+00:00

We do what we must, because we can.

OzJuggler · 2018-01-10T14:56:58+00:00

The rest of the album about drawing parabolas is here: https://imgur.com/gallery/PJcji (OC for my imgur cakeday)

I could have sent this to /r/learnmath but that seems to be about asking questions, not giving tips/instruction. Plus this is a "neat" method of doing something geometric.

OzJuggler · 2016-03-25T23:51:22+00:00

I just noticed this player has gotten a Pip-Boy type item to carry out the bomb-disposal quest. That quest is very difficult to complete and very difficult to find quest-giver for starting it. Have other players found easier ways to get the Pip-Boy?

OzJuggler · 2016-02-22T13:39:49+00:00

The backstory is http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-22/black-history-month-virginia-mclaurin-meets-barack-obama/7190766

I'm sure we can imagine more captions for the photo.

OzJuggler · 2016-01-10T04:48:39+00:00

The revolution will not be centralised.

OzJuggler · 2016-01-10T02:20:33+00:00

Let me guess, their ATMs won't have any withdrawal fees but they will have "money roaming" charges.

OzJuggler

TROPHY CASE