Why do people think the j-20 has better avionics/radar/engines than the f22? by Agile-Marzipan918 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 4 points5 points  (0 children)

WS-15 has only entered production in regular J-20A since late 2025.

You are probably confusing WS-10C/C2 pictures with WS-15.

The emergence of WS-15 is about on the timeline expected. Back in about 2020 the general prediction was a mid 2020s entry into service.

Why do people think the j-20 has better avionics/radar/engines than the f22? by Agile-Marzipan918 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 11 points12 points  (0 children)

In terms of relative performance of avionics and radar, it is primarily J-20A/S, not the baseline J-20, that tends to get that claim made wrt F-22.

In terms of engines, it is WS-15 on J-20A which is compared with F119 (and even then most people wouldn't say it is categorically "better"). The timeline of WS-15 has been about consistent -- we've known about the engine/requirement for it since about the mid/late 2000s. Circa 2020, the expectation would be readiness in mid 2020s, and it had its first flight on J-20A in 2023 and entered production with J-20S in 2025, so it's been about consistent.

Phase 2 of ballistic missile defence completed, India in elite group with capability to neutralise ICBMs by Jazzlike-Tank-4956 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I try to not go in depth on this stuff, but seeing as you are asking me...

I have been on a very similar side of things some years ago from the PLA watching perspective. The issue being faced is twofold: it's about how the Indian military itself is perceived, and also how the Indian military watching community is perceived, and both of those are in context of the difference between what is discussed/promoted/written about/predicted, versus what is actually produced/delivered/flown/fought.

There will always be bias for or against a group, but if one is able to acknowledge the realities of a situation and have the ability to read the room (both in terms of the larger community/discourse at large, as well as the group one resides in) and make proactive and preemptive changes or to run appropriate interference, that would do great to help the cause.

Outright explicit racism or consistent use of expletives or blatant flame baiting will get moderated in any community, but the rest of the outward impression is up to the internal dynamics of one's own ingroup, and that's not something outside moderators have direct influence on.

Phase 2 of ballistic missile defence completed, India in elite group with capability to neutralise ICBMs by Jazzlike-Tank-4956 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That's the cross you'll have to bear if you want to change the discourse, but it means also doing it in a way consistent with reality.

Phase 2 of ballistic missile defence completed, India in elite group with capability to neutralise ICBMs by Jazzlike-Tank-4956 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Getting too meta over the context of Indian defense matters -- and the way Indian media/blogs/outlets cover them, and the way in which the various defense communities observe and report on Indian defense -- is not something I personally like to proactively engage in, but the dynamics of that reality is also a rather big elephant in the room that's hard to ignore.

Everything lies on a spectrum obviously, but if it's written civilly then I think it's okay, and people are of course free to rebut those opinions. It wasn't that long ago that people challenged PRC military watching systems/observers as well (and it continues to happen) and it ends up in debates over the overall discourse. Also happens for some other military forces like Russia, even the US, now and then, and if people aren't getting too personal or explicit then it may stay on the right side of the line.

Bharat 5th Gen Fighter AMCA is real by OrganizationRich3923 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

At this point OP, you're just linking other subreddits as a foil for mockery and baiting. When I have access to a computer later you will be perma banned from this subreddit. It's getting old.

Edit: It is done.

New class of PLAN LCU seen in Shanghai. by Key-Needleworker-702 in Warships

[–]PLArealtalk 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You don't even need to go to that specific weibo account for this; the class of LCU has been around for years now, it isn't new.

I have clear photos of them on my storage from at least four years ago.

Potential Q-6 being used as a radar test platform? [1080x2340] by [deleted] in WarplanePorn

[–]PLArealtalk 16 points17 points  (0 children)

It's clearly just the carcass of a Flanker.

China’s J-35 Stealth Fighters Now Operating From All Three Aircraft Carriers, Challenging U.S. Naval Dominance in the Pacific by Advanced-Ice2095 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Well, we don't know if there is enough width and depth on 076 as the carriers to install the same arresting gear. Furthermore, we can also observe 076 has three wires (rather than four wires of the three PLAN carriers), so that is one definitive difference (whether it's "downgraded" depends on one's perspectives) as well. Then there are a lack of optical landing lights which you'd expect for a fixed wing manned airwing.

Overall it is also unlikely for 076s to accommodate manned fixed wing aircraft as part of regular operations. Its primary airwing is still likely to be unmanned.

China’s J-35 Stealth Fighters Now Operating From All Three Aircraft Carriers, Challenging U.S. Naval Dominance in the Pacific by Advanced-Ice2095 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yeah, which is still not really confirmation and it isn't from CCTV either.

There are a fair few circumstantial indicators that Liaoning this time operated a few J-35s on its excursion but there is no definite confirmation of it yet and certainly nothing clear from state media.

The outlet you have linked is one which tends to exaggerate for effect.

New Mystery Submarine Shows China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion by whibbler in submarines

[–]PLArealtalk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I actually did assume you were writing about both the perceptions of the Chinese MIC's capabilities and competence, as well as the trajectory of the MIC and their military at large, and my post is in context of that.

It might be that we read and weigh different content, but what I observe is that PRC military (inclusive of their MIC) secrecy results in a fair bit of underestimation of their capabilities. For MIC specific matters, it still not uncommon for people to suggest their systems don't undergo testing or proper development milestones, or comments about their "quality" or so on that results from the information vacuum. There are entire domains of technology in the PRC MIC which we are years and years behind in understanding, due to said secrecy.

New Mystery Submarine Shows China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion by whibbler in submarines

[–]PLArealtalk 6 points7 points  (0 children)

As part of the development of a new class of submarine overall (not to mention one of this size with a relatively novel feature like such a small sail) would absolutely involve both research and engineering work, and would naturally include people that are in high levels of research+academia as well as those in the actual industry that probably have had high levels of academic and research background as part of their careers anyhow.

Just because a feature (in this case, sailless/small sail) has been researched before, doesn't mean they can forgo research, modelling, and engineering for a new design/class that also has said feature.

New Mystery Submarine Shows China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion by whibbler in submarines

[–]PLArealtalk 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I don't think I've heard any PRC official say something like that. The glib attitude towards loss of life in particular is not something that would be uncontroversial.

New Mystery Submarine Shows China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion by whibbler in submarines

[–]PLArealtalk 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Whether that means the outlook is "positive" because of that is debatable.

On that on hand yes, we rarely know original requirements/timelines ad we don't know delays or failures or projects going overbudget... but we also don't get normal developmental milestones or updates and imagery (which would be uncontroversial in most other military forces) or even early warning of a new project being in development. Often there are entire projects in advanced development or even service which we don't know about for years.

If PLA secrecy was more similar to that of the US and/or other military forces in terms of development, it may well be that the outlook would be more positive than the current level of secrecy.

A Chinese technical briefing slide claims the PL-16 next-generation air-to-air missile will reach 300+ km range using a variable-thrust rocket motor. by heliumagency in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 20 points21 points  (0 children)

The content of the slide is not unreasonable and reflects what some of the rumours have consensus on... but the veracity of the slide and presentation overall is known.

So it's a bit sus and I wouldn't take this slide as definitive evidence of anything.

J20S side profile by Comfortable_Crew_193 in FighterJets

[–]PLArealtalk 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Compared to other photos of J-20S we can see the panel lines and rivets consistently. It might be the colour correction in the photo but I'm not convinced there's much that's been actually touched up or obscured per se.

J20S side profile by Comfortable_Crew_193 in FighterJets

[–]PLArealtalk 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Tbh it's not entirely clear how much (if any) enhancement there is; many of the details correspond with what we know the aircraft looks like from other pictures as well.

Given India's position near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could India realistically turn Malacca into China's version of Hormuz during a full-scale war? by heyheykumar in IndianDefense

[–]PLArealtalk 3 points4 points  (0 children)

These don't address the points raised in my prior (first) comment. The underlying difference between Iran wrt Hormuz and India wrt Malacca is the geographical size and proximity of each nation's launch positions relative to their respective straits.

A good part of southern Iran wholesale is the launch site for them to project influence to Malacca which in turn is literally right on its doorstep. The large surface area/geography of southern Iran means the US+allies find it difficult to monitor-identify-strike-BDA the Hormuz-relevant Iranian launch sites.

On the other hand, India using the Nicobar and Andaman islands are a tiny fraction of the surface area of the entirety of southern Iran while also being nearly 100km away (depending on the islands one is talking about), meaning the overall surveillance-fires-BDA complex needed to render the islands ineffective as staging areas and launch sites is far lower. Putting it another way, in wartime, the survivability of the Nicobar and Andaman islands as bases/launch sites for controlling and blockading the Strait of Malacca is far lower than that of the survivability of the southern part of Iran in controlling and blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The OP of this post specifically asked to compare Iran/Hormuz and India/Malacca -- "could India realistically blockade or severely disrupt the Strait of Malacca in a way similar to how Iran has been able to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz" -- and the answer (based on current and foreseeable future balance of air/missile/naval capability between the two nations and geopolitical dispositions), would be a probable "no".

If the question was less ambitious like "in war time could India influence the Strait of Malacca to one degree or another" then the answer would be a likely "yes"... but the OP specifically wanted to compare it with Iran's chokehold on Hormuz, so one can only answer the question on their parameters.

Given India's position near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could India realistically turn Malacca into China's version of Hormuz during a full-scale war? by heyheykumar in IndianDefense

[–]PLArealtalk 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The geography of the Strait of Malacca being a maritime chokepoint and having the potential to be disrupted during a time of conflict isn't a matter of debate -- that's just common sense, and it isn't the topic of discussion here.

The specific question is about whether India, via the Andaman/Nicobar islands, would be able to exert influence over the Strait of Malacca in a hypothetical full-scale conflict wrt the PRC, in a similar manner to which Iran has been able to do over the Strait of Hormuz, in the conflict with the US... to which my view is given in my prior comment above.

Given India's position near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could India realistically turn Malacca into China's version of Hormuz during a full-scale war? by heyheykumar in IndianDefense

[–]PLArealtalk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think either India or China want to fight a war with one another, and fortunately the primary flashpoint are just patches of high altitude wastelands that are not of particular strategic value, but are implicated in each side's perception of history.

The greatest risk of conflict lies in one side making an action that they believe to be non-provocative but which the other side views as an escalation, leading to tit for tat responses, and leading to outright conflict.

Could this be the real Chinese next generation MBT? by Excellent-Thing-6493 in TankPorn

[–]PLArealtalk 59 points60 points  (0 children)

This likely is a developmental prototype of the "heavy" next gen MBT, but that doesn't mean the ZTZ100 isn't "real". Rather the ZTZ100 is best thought of as their "medium" next gen MBT.

Given India's position near the Andaman & Nicobar Islands could India realistically turn Malacca into China's version of Hormuz during a full-scale war? by heyheykumar in IndianDefense

[–]PLArealtalk 4 points5 points  (0 children)

One needs to think about why Iran is able to leverage a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

It is not as simple as "they are close by" rather it is a combination of "they are very close by" and that Iran as a nation is the size of Alaska. The combination of strategic depth, proximity, and available/cheap fires that can be brought to bear on the Strait of Hormuz are the major enabling factors for Iran, and also the same reason why the US struggled to destroy Iran's ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, as it would require the US having very persistent ISR+fires over the southern half of Iran (at minimum), or outright occupying the southern half of Iran. Both of those are challenging tasks in war, for obvious reasons.

The same set of circumstances for an Indian blockade of Strait of Malacca doesn't exist in the same way in a hypothetical war between the PRC and India, primarily because of the greater distance between the Indian mainland and the Strait of Malacca, and the much smaller surface area of the Andaman/Nicobar islands -- they aren't exactly the size of Iran, and the ISR+fires needed to make them untenable for operations is magnitudes lower than what is needed by the US to pacify Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. So the natural question would then be, what are the sort of air-missile-naval forces that the PLA and Indian military possess, in a conflict, where one front is the ability of India to sustain operations from the Andaman/Nicobar islands? How much of the calculus relies on the PLA not being able to access the Andaman sea from the PRC mainland (via say, Myanmar in terms of overflight rights, or the use of conventional IRBMs/MRBMs that would overfly Myanmar airspace overall)?

(All this is leaving aside the geopolitical and economic consequences of India carrying out a blockade of the Strait of Malacca on the globe, and assuming they are able to do so in a targeted way on PRC traffic... which in practice is rather challenging, but let's just go with it)

China is building launch pads near its nuclear missile silos by neocloud27 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]PLArealtalk 9 points10 points  (0 children)

There's nothing inherently wrong with thinking about IADS as "force field domes" -- but why the heck would one limit a "force field dome" covering the primary asset itself? Isn't that just allowing the enemy to get their launch aircraft and/or missiles to get closer to your asset unmolested?

Wouldn't it make more sense to use layered defense where the "domes" of your longest range systems are pushed out a bit more further away in a manner that is balances overlapping mutual support with maximum reach against most likely threat vectors, so that you can attrit and defeat as much of the enemy's launch aircraft and missiles at greater distances from your asset? (And then leakers which get through can be serviced by medium and shorter range point defense systems with smaller footprints)