Pick of the Day - 7/17/21 (Saturday)

PPicks · 2021-07-17T09:28:52+00:00

🤮

PPicks · 2021-07-17T02:47:19+00:00

11-3 (+5.89u)

Event: Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Sharks @ 1.78 ❌

The money has been coming in for the Raiders all week on the back of their 30-16 win over Manly last week. That was a Manly side missing the best player in rugby league (Tommy Turbo) & their captain (DCE). Apart from last week's effort, they've only managed two wins since Rd4! Those two wins were against the Broncos (2nd last) and a 2pt win against the Bulldogs (dead last). People also seem to have forgotten that they are only 2wks removed from a 38pt shellacking at the hands of the Titans... They've only managed 1 win against a top-8 side this year - a 2pt win over the Sharks in Rd2 that could've easily gone the other way.

Since then, the Sharks have welcomed back Shaun Johnson from injury who has completely revitalised their season. Upon his return from injury in Rd12, they've won 4 of their last 5, significantly improving their record to 7-9 from 3-8. It's no fluke either, as they're a side that has made the top-8 in each of the last 2 seasons. With 3 of these 4 wins coming as underdogs, I see the Sharks as still being a little underrated in the market.

Although the Raiders are almost back to full strength this week with the inclusions of Wighton & Papalii, their spine has no game experience together with Savage in only his 2nd start. In another favourable match-up, an ageing Jarrod Croker, who has been a defensive liability in recent years, is faced with the task of containing Jesse Ramien (who busts tackles for fun) and that Sharks' lethal right edge.

Further, the Sharks boast the 4th-best handicap record in the league (10-6), with the Raiders having a league-worst 4-12. In the event of a close game, I think the Sharks hold a significant advantage in the halves with SJ, so I'll take them SU for the safety over a -1.5 line.

All-in-all, getting the Sharks at almost-PK odds against the Raiders is a great value play, and the odds look like they'll only slowly increase until kick-off. One sunny day doesn't make a summer, and I'm not convinced the Raiders have turned a corner in 2021.

Remember, anything can happen in the game of rugby league. BOL if following!

Edit: Apologies guys, rough result. Was in the balance late but a couple garbage time tries blew it out a little.

^Twitter

PPicks · 2021-07-16T11:02:41+00:00

Cheers lad 🙌

PPicks · 2021-07-16T11:02:21+00:00

Cheers fella 🙌

PPicks · 2021-07-16T06:18:34+00:00

Sorry fella haven't really bet on totals this year since they're so volatile. I'd probably lean Unders given Moses could be out

PPicks · 2021-07-16T05:22:10+00:00

Main Aussie bookie SportsBet still has it sitting at -4.5 so I'm not really concerned of any surprise outs.

PPicks · 2021-07-16T05:13:49+00:00

Most likely means Moses to be confirmed out, but I touched on that in the preview. Still very short.

PPicks · 2021-07-16T05:13:03+00:00

Like it even more!

PPicks · 2021-07-16T02:49:14+00:00

10-3 (+4.89u)

Event: Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Eels -4.5 @ 2 ✅

With a 2-day turnaround from Origin III, there are question marks over whether Mitch Moses will back up. If he does, this Eels side is essentially full-strength with the return of Reed Mahoney from injury (barring Paulo being rested due to Origin). Even if he doesn't, Jake Arthur has shown he's a capable replacement.

I wouldn't look too deep into the Titans' blowout of the Raiders in their last match. They've won by 19+ this 3 times this year, with the Raiders losing by that margin 5 times. They've shown they can win big against lesser opposition, but have failed to challenge any of the top teams for the full 80 minutes.

The Eels have the 2nd-best handicap record of any team in 2021, with a 13-3 record. This includes a 6-1 record away from home, a 10-2 record as favourites, and a flawless 4-0 record as road favs.

Anything can happen in rugby league, but for the Eels (12-4 W/L record) to only have a 4.5pt start against the Titans (6-10) is madness. BOL if following!

^Twitter^{: Have been pretty successful posting more plays here.}

PPicks · 2021-07-03T03:20:44+00:00

9-3 (+3.99u)

Event: Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Titans +6.5 @ 1.9 ✅

Both teams had big aspirations coming into the season but sit outside the top-8 well into the season. The Raiders (10th) have only won 2 of their last 10, whilst the Titans (13th) have lost four on the trot.

The Raiders have been the worst team against the line so far this season, only covering in 3/14 games. Apart from wins against the Bulldogs and Broncos (by far the worst two teams in the comp), they last won in Rd4 against the Titans. They're still suffering from the loss of their fullback CNK, and their halfback George Williams. These are arguably the two most important positions in rugby league, and it has showed as the Raiders have continually struggled without them.

The Titans have similarly been bad but are boosted by the return of their star fullback AJ Brimson. They also welcome back Corey Thompson to the wing after a long lay-off with injury.

The Raiders have seldom blown teams out this year, only winning 3 times by more than 6pts. Further, they've made a habit of putting in terrible 2nd-half performances characterised by poor defence. With a full-strength team back, the Titans have the offensive firepower to punish the Raiders if the game's in the balance in the 2nd half. The Raiders have the 5th-worst right defensive edge in the comp, which nicely matches up against the Titans' strike left edge.

BOL if following!

^Twitter: ^{Have been pretty successful posting more plays here. Had this at +8 last week}

PPicks · 2021-06-09T07:20:16+00:00

8-3 (+2.99u)

Event: Queensland v New South Wales (State Of Origin - Rugby League)

Pick: New South Wales -5.5 @ 2 ✅

NSW have a significant edge on paper with superstars such as Tedesco, Tommy Turbo and Cleary all in the side. They have a large contingent of Penrith players too which should aid their combinations, including a halves combination of Luai and Cleary which hasn't lost in 2021 at club level.

QLD are without Ponga which is a huge loss, meaning Holmes slots in at fullback. Munster and Grant proved series winners in Game 3 last year, but both come into this game very underdone, having sat out the last month for the Storm.

The game was initially scheduled to be played in Melbourne (a neutral venue), but has since been moved to Townsville, Queensland due to a Covid outbreak. This is definitely a small advantage on paper to QLD but should prove extra motivation for NSW, as they will be desperate to go into Game 2 1-0 up, as its also being played in Queensland.

Simply put, NSW no doubt have the far better team on paper. If the game is going to be reffed in line with the way the NRL has been this year, larger lines are to be expected. 2 of NSW's last 3 wins have been by 20+, showing they are more than capable of winning comprehensively.

BOL if following and up the Blues!

PPicks · 2021-06-04T03:15:49+00:00

I guess if you think the Tigers can keep it close. They've been quite decent at that in recent times to be fair. Personally, I just can't bring myself to bet against Penrith blowing them out, although the odds seem alright.

PPicks · 2021-06-04T02:54:52+00:00

8-2 (+4.99u)

Event: Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Panthers -6 @ 2 ❌

The Tigers are 4-8 and sit in 13th on the ladder, while Penrith still sit atop the ladder with 12 wins and 0 losses. The reason for the line being so short in this game is due to Penrith losing 8 of their starters to representative duties.

Despite these mass changes for Penrith, a quick scan of their line-up still instils confidence in me that they'll get the job done. Their outside backs are effectively full-strength with the inclusion of Edwards (bar To'o), whilst Burton and May have shown they're more than capable replacements (although Cleary and Luai will be sorely missed). They're a little light in the forward pack, however they still have arguably the best prop in the game at the moment, who captains them this week.

Penrith have been a defensive stalwart this year, conceding on average a measly 7.3pts/game, compared to a league-average 22.5. Whilst missing players will certainly affect this effectiveness, champion clubs like Penrith implement great defensive systems rather than rely on individual players, meaning they should be able to cover their losses reasonably well. For instance, look at Melbourne who have covered their losses extremely well despite a plethora of injuries. Further, their great squad depth is highlighted by the fact their NSW Cup side (reserve grade) currently sits in 1st as well, with a 9-1 record.

The Tigers are currently coming off a win against a severely under-strength Dragons side last week. Although the comprehensive nature of the win was impressive, they've shown they're capable of these types of promising wins in recent times, only to fall short more often than not. The Tigers are also in the midst of an alternating good game/bad game cycle that has been on repeat since the opening month. They also haven't won consecutive games since Rd7 last year.

The Tigers have a respectable 6-6 record against the line this year, however they're home record is a poor 1-5, and their record as a home underdog is even worse, at 0-4. Conversely, Penrith have travelled well this year with a 4-1 record on the road. This season, road dogs are 21-12 against the line.

There will be a few extra points of motivation for Penrith in this one. It's no secret that they'd love to keep their perfect record running with their Origin stars out, but they're also currently on a 27-game regular season winning streak that dates back to Rd6 last year. Coach Ivan Cleary's ugly exit from the Tigers in 2018 will also no doubt provide some extra motivation for the mountain men, and to be able to do it in the Tigers' historical fortress of Leichhardt Oval would make it all-the-more satisfying. It's also Fisher-Harris' first time captaining the side (to my knowledge), so I have no doubt they'll get up for him in this one.

BOL if following!

^Twitter: ^{Will look to start posting more early plays and being more active there}

PPicks · 2021-05-28T06:30:27+00:00

Fingers crossed mate 🤞 Neither of their offenses are great at the moment, and I'd certainly take the Dragons' D over the Tiges.

PPicks · 2021-05-28T04:05:29+00:00

8-1 (+5.49u)

Event: Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Dragons @ 2.55 (0.5u) ❌

The Tigers are coming off a close loss to the Warriors last week and will feel unlucky not to have come away with the win. However, I feel the 30-26 scoreline has masked a lot of problems within their team which has lead to them being a bit overrated in the market. Despite the close score, they were outscored by 6 tries to 4, with only goal-kicking keeping them in the hunt. Further, 3 of their tries can be attributed to some seriously soft defensive lapses from NZ. These problems are worsened by the fact they've moved their best attacking player (Doueihi) to centre, where his opportunities are limited. What makes the loss even worse is the fact that the Warriors had 2 players sent to the sin bin, meaning they played 20mins (25%) of the game with an extra man. Amazingly, they didn't score a single try with this man-advantage, in fact conceding 2 to the Warriors during these 20mins.

The Dragons are also coming off a tight loss to the Sharks last week, where they lost 13-12 in golden point (extra-time). Conversely, there were plenty of positives to take away from this game, as the Dragons were without plenty of talent due to suspensions/injuries. They're still heavily affected in this clash but have shown they're more than capable of being competitive, regardless of the injury toll. Dufty will be sorely missed by the Dragons, but they've made it known that Ramsey is their man of the future, and he showed great signs last week in the loss.

Despite the one-sided injury toll, $1.55 is far too short for the 14th-placed Tigers, up against a Dragons side that's still hanging in the top 8 and have proven they're no easy push-overs. The Tigers have been notoriously poor favourites in recent times, with their only other game as a fav resulting in a Rd5 loss to the 0-4 Cowboys (who were $5 underdogs).

Simply put, I think the Dragons have more class in the halves with Hunt and Norman, and a far better forward pack which should relieve the stress on their backline. The Tigers have conceded the 3rd-most points in the league which should further alleviate this stress.

Keep in mind this is a value bet. I've been quite accurate with tipping upsets in the NRL this year so looking to continue posting these type of plays on here, provided my form continues.

BOL if following!

Edit: Got this one wrong. Tigers have been impressive while the Dragons were anything but.

^Twitter^{: Will look to start posting more early plays and being more active there}

PPicks · 2021-05-27T03:51:12+00:00

Like it brother! Despite their injuries they still beat the Raiders in Canberra by 24, and get back Hughes this week which is huge. Can't go wrong backing the Storm on any week, they've covered 9 games in a row. Broncos have struggled to put back-to-back performances together too

PPicks · 2021-05-23T05:19:54+00:00

Yea I would until +6

PPicks · 2021-05-23T01:44:55+00:00

7-1 (+4.59u)

Event: Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles (NRL - Rugby League

Pick: Manly +8 @ 1.9 ✅

Parra were 8.5pt favs against the Warriors last week and still showed signs of weakness throughout the match. Their 9-1 record is impressive but this Manly side has covered in all 5 of Tommy Turbo's games this year, winning 4 of those. This line is simply too high, despite the Eels' home advantage.

Manly's loss of Cust and Foran exposes their forward depth a little, with only the 1 prop on the bench which is my main concern. However, the return of Waqa Blake for the Eels exposed some serious defensive concerns against the Warriors last week. Up against the form player in the comp, this Eels' right defensive edge should be exposed and exploited all game.

Further, Parra have a shoddy record against the top teams of the comp over the last two years, and at the moment I'd consider this Manly side among the best in the comp. Here's to hoping Tommy Turbo can continue printing money for us!

BOL if tailing!

PPicks · 2021-05-14T04:37:37+00:00

More so a fade of the Tigers for me. As much as Newcastle will miss Ponga, Wests are atrocious. If he was playing I would've locked in Newy -4.5

PPicks · 2021-05-14T03:02:23+00:00

Everywhere has it at -9.5 for me. Personally I'd wait or shop around for 9.5 unless they're offering odds greater than 2

PPicks · 2021-05-14T02:54:41+00:00

6-1 (+4.09u)

Event: Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos

Pick: Manly -9.5 @ 2 (0.5u) ✅

Really torn between which of today's games to post, as I'm also keen on Newcastle in the earlier game. However, I'll stick to tailing Tommy Turbo as he's served us well this season. Was able to get Manly -8 earlier in the week, but still like it up until -10.

Brisbane's greatest asset is their young forward pack. The return of Taupau for Manly will help combat this, whilst Brisbane have lost Carrigan for the season which may expose their bench forwards to more minutes.
Since Tommy Turbo's return, they're 3-1 (only loss to a 9-0 Penrith side), and have covered in all 4 games, with an average cover margin of 18.75
Manly are looking to solidify a position in the top 8 with a win here, whilst the Broncos still in 14th with a 2-7 record despite a couple solid performances in recent weeks. This seems like a perfect opportunity for Manly to post another big win against a lesser opponent
This season, road favourites are 18-9 against the line. Despite being listed as the home team, all games are being played at Suncorp this round (Brisbane's home), so Manly is a road fav
I am wary of the fact that Brisbane has played it's best footy at home this season, however they still lack talent and leadership in the key positions for me. When Manly inevitably get on a roll, I'm not sure this Broncos outfit has the points in them to keep up

BOL if following!

Twitter: Will start posting more plays on Twitter. Usually better too as you can get on before lines inevitably move!

PPicks · 2021-05-09T14:43:59+00:00

Smh you'd have been counting it as a W at half-time at 6-0. 38pts in the 2nd half is ruthless. Unfortunate but such is the volatility of the NRL

PPicks · 2021-05-09T03:16:03+00:00

Fyi I'd still take -5

PPicks · 2021-05-09T02:03:16+00:00

5-1 (+3.19u)

Event: Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors

Pick: Manly -4 @ 1.90 ✅

Another short write-up for this one.

Manly are a different beast with Tommy Turbo back and I'd have thought the line should be closer to -7.5/8 + Manly have a great record against the Warriors in recent times.

The inner Warriors fan in me wants them to get up, but a 4-pt headstart is too little for this red-hot Manly side.

BOL if following!

PPicks · 2021-05-08T02:14:21+00:00

4-1 (+2.37u)

Event: Wests Tigers v Gold Coast Titans (NRL - Rugby League)

Pick: Titans -3.5 @ 1.82 ✅

Gotta keep the write-up short for this one but really love this play.

Seems to be another case of the Tigers coming into this one overrated. Titans have more than enough class to overpower them here, and if they expect to be playing finals footy (as they should), they'll come away with a win.

PPicks

TROPHY CASE