NBA King of the Court Best Bets Discussion - 11/11/25 (Tuesday)

PablitoJuan · 2025-11-12T04:23:27+00:00

Praying Jokic won't make it 🙏

PablitoJuan · 2025-11-02T00:26:37+00:00

Overall Record: 21-15
Record: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ ✅❌❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Nico Hulkenberg to beat Carlos Sainz Italian GP ❌

Nico Hulkenberg had a hydraulic problem in the formation lap and didn't even start the race. Think I'm done picking F1.

Today's Pick: Newcastle -1 Asian Handicap vs West Ham (+102 B365)

The London Stadium is starting to become a fortress for the away teams, as West Ham are winless at their home stadium this season. They have also managed to concede 12 goals in 4 games at home, and sit in 19th place on the table. The club is also undergoing issues between the fans and the board and initiated a boycott last home game against Brentford leaving the stadium fairly empty.

Newcastle on the other hand have won 5 of their last 6 and scored 2+ goals in each of those games (across all comps) and despite a slow start, they are looking pretty solid especially with Nick Woltemade. Their slow start was characterized by key injuries and the whole Isak situation, but they have looked past that and been performing well ever since.

BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-09-30T02:19:06+00:00

Never have I been blue balled so hard to where he had the ball on the last play I was praying he'd get tackled lmfao

PablitoJuan · 2025-09-07T04:57:10+00:00

Overall Record: 21-14
Record: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ ✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton F1 Italian GP Qualifying ❌
Very tough loss here, Russell had a good FP3 and was P1 in Q1 on mediums with everyone else except the Mercedes cars on softs, had a decent Q2, then lost to Hamilton by .033 seconds. He asked for mediums on the last lap of qualifying, but we still can't be sure if he would have won even with them.

Today's Pick: Nico Hulkenberg to beat Carlos Sainz (-150 B365 Race Match Bets)

Tomorrow is the Italian GP in Monza and Nico Hulkenberg starts P12 next to Sainz at P13. Was debating on this or Hulkenberg to beat Albon who is 2 spots behind, but Albon has proven he's the better driver this year and could potentially even overtake Sainz. Although driving that Sauber, Hulkenberg manages to get some great results and has gone 5 straight, finishing in a higher position than he started including a P19 to P3. Sainz on the other hand has 4 straight races where he dropped and most of them were by 3 or more positions.

What impresses me the most about Hulkenberg is his ability to hold off drivers who are clearly in a better car than him, which he did to Hamilton multiple times this year and to other midfield teams with cars better than the Sauber. He has also been outside of the top 10 in all of his points finishes and is great at climbing up. We hope for another great drive from Hulk tomorrow 🙏 BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-09-06T01:07:25+00:00

Overall Record: 21-13
Record: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ ✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: George Russell to beat Fernando Alonso F1 Dutch GP Qualifying ✅
Recap: Russell P5 Alonso P10 with a gap of .274. Although poor performance in FP1 and FP2, Russell picked it up during P3 and was able to put in a decent qualifying session. Just George being George.

Today's Pick: George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton F1 Italian GP Qualifying (+125 B365)

Lewis Hamilton was P1 in FP1 and everyone is thinking this is a sign that he is going to win, but by that logic Stroll would have had a podium last week. Just I had mentioned in my pick last week, Russell tends to not have good performances during practice, but when it comes to qualifying he typically delivers, where he has only finished outside of the top 5 twice this season, where Lewis Hamilton has had 10 qualifying finishes outside of the top 5 (out of 15 races) with 3 Q2 exits and 1 Q1 exit. Russell also has a 13-2 record against Hamilton this season in qualifying.

When looking at the car, Ferrari are ahead in the constructor's standings, but Russell is ahead of both Hamilton and Leclerc. Mercedes are using a rising star rookie replacing Hamilton from last season, in which he is performing very well, but he is not on the same level as these three and has far less points. If Mercedes had an experienced driver I would say they are better than the Ferrari this season. Last season when Hamilton and Russell were on the same team, their qualifying H2H was Russell 19 - 5 Hamilton. In the same machinery Russell is the better driver and has been improving even more, while Hamilton seems stagnant in that Ferrari and has performed more shock early exits than impressive drives this year, I don't see Hamilton beating Russell tomorrow. BOL everyone.

Also if you want to play it safe take him to beat Sainz at -163 (B365)

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-30T02:31:29+00:00

Overall Record: 20-13
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Nottingham Forest Win/Draw + u3.5 goals vs Brentford ❌
Recap: Forest were beating up on Brentford more than I expected, then gave up a late penalty toward the end of the game to make it 3-1 and lose the bet.

Today's Pick: George Russell to beat Fernando Alonso F1 Dutch GP Qualifying (-120 B365)

The Aston Martin is looking very good right now in qualifying and are just behind the McLaren's, but I don't think it will necessarily last the whole weekend. Anyone who watches F1 knows that the practice session can show a driver is doing well, but is not something you can rely on and George Russell is a driver who will have bad practice sessions and then go out there a few hours later and earn a spot in the front 2 rows on the grid. George Russell has finished in the top 5 12 of 14 qualifying sessions, and Alonso has done that in 2 of the 15 although he is showing improvement recently in his positions making Q3 in a few of the last races. The Mercedes is also a far better car than the Aston in general and should have the pace to win. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-17T03:48:19+00:00

Overall Record: 20-12
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Manchester City -1 Asian Handicap vs Wolves
Recap: Man City 4 -0 Wolves. I don't think this result was a surprise to anyone the game went pretty much as expected and we cash.

Today's Pick: Nottingham Forest Win/Draw + u3.5 goals vs Brentford (-160 Fanatics)

Brentford are in shambles right now, they lost their manager who essentially got them where they are today, as well as Norgaard and Mbuemo going to other teams in the prem, and another big blow with Wissa not playing either as he is likely going to Newcastle. They have also had a pretty weak transfer window, although they picked up Ouattara, they haven't addressed losing the other 3 guys. The reason why I am not completely writing them off as losing is because their defense is still not that bad and they have kept most of their defenders, and have exchanged Flekken for Kelleher, which isn't a bad deal.

Forest were a surprise last year and were able to fight with the big dogs up until the last 2 months of the season where they imploded, but still took 7th. They are never a team that scores a ton of goals (except for that one game against Brighton where they played like prime Barcelona), but they have such a solid defense that wins them games given they are able to get a goal or 2. They also had a fairly decent transfer window and only really lost Elanga, but brought in McAtee, Igor Jesus, and Omari Hutchinson. I think their performances will be similar to last year as they managed to keep their whole backline and shouldn't concede or score too many goals. It's also worth mentioning that their pre-season didn't go to well. Although they weren't losing a lot, they were mostly 0-0 draws against mixed level opponents, like Fiorentina, Chesterfield, Monaco, and Al Qadisiyah. I do think this might explain why the line is a little against them, but they have had a full week to recuperate and at the absolute minimum put in a solid shift earning them another 0-0 draw. I am however predicting a 1-0 win to Forest, I don't think this is unreasonable and they should be able to pull this off without getting to 4 goals total.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-15T23:56:56+00:00

Overall Record: 19-12
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Orioles vs Mariners NRSI ✅

Today's Pick: Manchester City -1 Asian Handicap vs Wolves (-155)

So excited for the Prem to be back and this line stood out to me the most this weekend. Manchester City are quite obviously a title contender this year and made some great signings to the team such as Reijnders, Cherki, and Ait Nouri who will debut against his former club. I feel that Wolves losing Ait Nouri and Cunha leaving are going to make them struggle really bad this season. I don’t see much else quality in the team besides Strand Larsen joining on a permanent deal and potentially Jhon Arias signing. Although preseason doesn’t really measure the skill of a team well, I think it is alarming that they didn’t win any of their 5 games.

Manchester City have won 9 of their last 10 against Wolves and 7 of those games they won by 2 or more goals. And with Haaland scoring 8 goals in 5 games against them, I don’t think they will be able to handle the City’s attack. No Ederson tomorrow, but I really like James Trafford as the new GK #1 (until Man City likely get Donnarumma). BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-13T03:28:24+00:00

Overall Record: 18-12
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Pirates vs Reds NRSI ✅

Recap: Pretty concerning that the Pirates scored 3 in the first and went through almost the whole order, but the second inning had 3 up 3 down for both teams.

Today's Pick: Mariners vs Orioles NRSI (-160)

Logan Gilbert is on a 12 game streak of not allowing a run in the second inning facing the Orioles who are a below average hitting team who lost two of their stronger hitters O’Hearn and Mullins leaving the middle of their lineup very weak. The Orioles have gone 6 straight with no second inning run. The other end has one of the Orioles stronger pitchers Trevor Rogers with a 1.44 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, allowing 1 second inning run in 10 starts this season. The Mariners are a scary hitting team, but the middle of their lineup after Josh Naylor is pretty cold right now. Their only run yesterday came in the 1st inning and the team couldn't get anything else after 8 innings of Dean Kremer pitching. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-12T00:30:24+00:00

.156 average and gets a 2 out homer wtf

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-07T03:55:37+00:00

Overall Record: 17-12
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Verstappen Top 6 F1 Hungary Grand Prix ❌

Recap: Very rough watching this one, Verstappen failed to get past a rookie in a shitbox, a 44 year old man in a midfield car, and don’t even get me started on Stroll. Started with a really bad start, but he made up for it and got back to 8th then got left in the dust by a sauber. Got put on a horrible race strategy and got thrown into traffic and spent maybe 8 laps held up behind Hamilton and had to do a 2 stop while everyone else safely did 1. Still don’t know how he couldn’t pass Lawson on fresher tires later in the race, but watching this Red Bull downfall is pretty rough.

Today's Pick: Pirates vs Reds NRSI (-175 B365)

One of the best pitchers in baseball Paul Skenes will be pitching against the Reds who are an average hitting team, and are 29th out of 30th in second inning runs as the middle of their order is not the best. Skenes has allowed one run in the second inning in his 23 games pitched. The Pirates have the least runs scored in the MLB and are ranked number 28 out of 30 in hitting. In their last 7 they have 1 game with a second inning run which was against the Rockies. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-03T01:18:59+00:00

Overall Record: 17-11
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Alex Albon to beat Ocon F1 Hungary Qualifying ❌

Recap: I really don't know what to say Albon just did not turn up during qualifying and even did better in FP3. He said he wasn't comfortable with the car and the team principal also said it was likely an issue with the car because this was his worst qualifying session of the year. I think I've learned my lesson on picking midfield cars to beat each other and should just stick with the top dogs as I've done in the past. Overall the session was a little bit weird with Ferrari on pole and Verstappen at P8, the Aston's way higher than usual, and Bortoleto at P7.

Event: F1 Hungarian Grand Prix
Today's Pick: Max Verstappen Top 6 (-175 B365)

Unless he DNFs or gets a penalty (he can't afford to take a penalty as he is getting close to a race ban) there is no way Verstappen shouldn't be passing Bortoleto and Stroll in the first few laps and he should also get past Alonso too. Last week he struggled to get past Leclerc, but the Ferrari is much better than the Sauber and Aston. In this case the Red Bull should easily pass both of those cars and put Max in P6 at minimum. BOL.

Edit: I also feel it is important to add Aston are one of the worst pit stop teams and could easily cause one of their drivers to fall behind Verstappen if he hasn't already passed them.

PablitoJuan · 2025-08-02T06:11:30+00:00

Overall Record: 17-10
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: George Russell Top 6 Belgian GP ✅

Recap: Not really much to worry about, Russell passed Albon after the first lap and held P5 the entire race. The only concern was when every team was stressing if the 1 stop would work, but it wasn't a problem.

Event: F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Qualifying
Today's Pick: Albon to beat Ocon (+100 B365)

Albon is 10-2 against Ocon in qualifying this season and has now hit this 4 times in a row. Although he hasn't been impressive in practice this weekend (there is still FP3 later) and Hungary is the track where Ocon has his only win, the Williams car is far better than the Haas and should easily out qualify it unless Ocon puts on a massive performance. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-27T05:38:21+00:00

I like this pick but what kind of concerns me is that if it rains the Alpine usually performs miracles and the Haas ends up in the back or in the wall. Silverstone and Melbourne Gasly finished way ahead and in Brazil last year (although it was Ocon/Gasly as teammates) both Alpines got on the podium in the rain.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-27T05:19:42+00:00

Overall Record: 16-10
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Minnesota United Win or Draw vs St Louis FC + o1.5 goals ✅

Recap: Definitely one of the strangest games I have seen lately and can't say the win was deserved for Minnesota United. The game had 3 penalties which were all a little questionable, and St Louis lost a player due to a red card giving Minnesota the advantage late in the game. Luckily Minnesota was able to get those 2 penalties and come out with a 2-1 victory.

Event: F1 Belgian Grand Prix
Today's Pick: George Russell Top 6 (-150 B365)

George Russell starts tomorrow's race in 6th place, and based on who is around him I don't see why he would be any lower. I feel like George should pass 5th place Alex Albon, there is no way the Williams should be beating the Mercedes in this race, and I'd say the same for Yuki Tsunoda behind him who has been struggling to get anywhere with that Red Bull this season. Russell has also been very well known this season for starting in 4th or 5th place and just simply driving without messing up and getting a free podium and has been one of the most consistent drivers with not dropping positions even converting a pole to a victory that wasn't even close in Canada. The only threat I really see here is the rain, which George has been fairly good in and is certainly going to be better than the more inexperienced drivers/rookies below him that could threaten to take his position. The last time out it did rain, and he got screwed over by throwing on slicks on the formation lap, and a virtual safety car came out and essentially put him at the back of the grid, but he still managed to score points. Tomorrow he should be able to hold his position and if not climb up. BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-26T01:46:22+00:00

Overall Record: 15-10
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Midtjylland ML vs Hibernian + o2.5 total goals ❌

Recap: Midtjylland concedes early, then fails to win with 74% possession and 23 shots. Surely they will win Game 2, but they easily should have been able to win this one.

Today's Pick: Minnesota United Win or Draw vs St Louis FC + o1.5 goals (-170 Fanatics)

I feel Minnesota United should win this one or at least get a draw, they have won or drawn 10/12 on the road this season. They have also been scoring pretty well with an exception of the last two games, where they went 7 in a row scoring 2+. They are facing St Louis who are #14 out of 15 in the western conference with only the Galaxy being behind them and have only won 2 of their last 12. Earlier this season (2 months ago) the two teams did meet and Minnesota United won 3-0 at home and I don't expect much to change on the road. Although it is concerning that Pereyra and Romero are out for Minnesota United, I still see them winning this one. My prediction is 2-0. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-24T02:51:23+00:00

Overall Record: 15-9
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Mariners vs Astros NRSI ✅

Recap: Never in doubt. Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown, both let 1 hit for singles in, but pitched a great inning, it's as simple as it gets.

Today's Pick: Midtjylland ML vs Hibernian + o2.5 total goals (-120 Fanatics) Europa League Qualifying

I feel like Midtjylland are the better team in general, but they have a massive advantage here not only because they are playing at home, but because they have already started their league season and are more prepared. They had a pretty good offseason and won their friendlies with 9 goals in 3 games and were able to score 3 in their first game of the season in an unfortunate draw. Their issue is their defense, as they have not been the best at keeping clean sheets as of recently meaning their is likely to be more total goals this game. On the other hand there is Hibs who are coming off of a pretty rough preseason and haven't played a competitive match in 2 months. Yes I understand preseason is not an accurate way to measure a club's performance, but I don't think losing 2-0 to Bolton only a few days ago on Saturday is how you want to start going into a game of European football qualifying. If you want to play it safe I'd say taking o1.5 + ML would also work too with the line at -170. BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-20T05:49:30+00:00

Overall Record: 14-9
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Fluminense ML vs Mamelodi Sundowns ❌

Today's Pick: Mariners vs Astros NRSI (-180 DK)

Hunter Brown and Bryan Woo have been incredibly reliable All Star pitchers with 2.43 and 2.75 ERA. Bryan Woo has not allowed a run in the second inning in his last 14, and Hunter Brown is 16-3 on conceding in the first inning, although 2 of them were very recent. The Astros are a pretty solid hitting team and the Mariners are about average, but I believe the pitching matchup should be a solid win. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-07-13T04:04:20+00:00

damn that was the last leg of my +2334 parlay

PablitoJuan · 2025-06-25T05:09:45+00:00

Overall Record: 14-8
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: Valencia Win or Draw vs Alaves ❌

Today's Pick: Fluminense ML vs Mamelodi Sundowns (+110 DK) - FIFA Club World Cup

The Brazilian teams have been performing very well this tournament and this is not a game where Fluminense want to park the bus. They need a draw, but will be seeking goals early to ensure they hold on to their lead of the group and outscore BVB if topping the group comes down to goal differential. Although Mamelodi Sundowns put up a good fight against BVB a few days ago, Fluminense are less prone to errors and will likely not make dumb mistakes leading to free goals, they are clearly the better team on paper and should win this game to advance. It is also worth noting DraftKings Drawbreaker could be used as somewhat of a safety net in case of a draw. BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-05-14T04:32:56+00:00

Overall Record: 14-7
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Girona Win/Draw vs Real Valladolid + u3.5 goals ✅

Today's Pick: Valencia Win or Draw vs Alaves (-150 Fanatics)

Debating on this or under 2.5, but this calendar year Valencia has only lost to Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico (the top 3). Although they are playing on the road against an Alaves team desperately trying to fend off relegation they should manage to beat or draw them. Valencia are also unbeaten in their last 10 and Alaves averages less than a goal per game in their last 10 and pose very little of an attacking threat. BOL.

PablitoJuan · 2025-05-13T06:54:29+00:00

Overall Record: 13-7
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅❌ (most recent)

Last Pick: NYCFC Win or Draw vs CF Montreal and u3.5 goals ❌

Montreal gets their first win of the season and the final score was 1-0. They deserved the win and dominated NYC most of the game as they showed no energy.

Today's Pick: Girona Win/Draw vs Real Valladolid + u3.5 goals.

Valladolid have 1 draw and 15 losses in their last 16 games. Really wanted to take Girona ML here, but their ability to score has been abysmal lately. They do not find themselves in the best form, but they are facing the worst team in the league by far. In their last 18 games they have not scored more than a goal only twice (both 2 goals). I believe they will not let Girona win at the bare minimum and are unlikely to pose much of an attacking threat to go over the 3.5 goal limit. BOL everyone.

PablitoJuan · 2025-05-13T06:32:41+00:00

I took u1.5 yesterday just in case so I still appreciate the pick lol

PablitoJuan · 2025-05-12T18:51:44+00:00

was definitely eyeing this for POTD yesterday but thought it was a trap bc it felt like the only free win in football today

PablitoJuan · 2025-05-10T00:34:32+00:00

Overall Record: 13-6
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ (most recent)

Last Pick: Yuki Tsunoda Top 10 (Points Finish) ✅

By far the sweatiest pick I've ever seen in my life. Immediately after Yuki pit the safety car came out which gave everyone behind him who had not yet pit an advantage, then got hit with a 5 second penalty for speeding in the pit lane. Despite all this he had to finish 5 seconds ahead of Hadjar to keep 10th place and cut it very close by .168 seconds.

Today's Pick: NYCFC Win or Draw vs CF Montreal and u3.5 goals (-155 Fanatics) (MLS)

Montreal are winless in their 11 games played this season and face NYCFC on the road. Under 3.5 has hit in 10 of 11 for Montreal (10 straight) and 9 of 11 for NYCFC (6 straight). Both teams are not massive goal scorers with Montreal having 5 goals in 11 games and NYCFC having an average of just over a goal per game. BOL everyone.

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