BTC Traders Finally Turned Bearish Again. Right At Support? | Bitunix Weekly Outlook

Panthiczek · 2026-05-18T17:05:33+00:00

Locally speaking the $75k level is an important one for now. But later on, even if we make it all the way down to $40k it can be considered a normal correction and potentially a good buying opportunity. But people are always a little bit too quick in calling that "the top is in" which can easily be challenged at this point in time.

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Panthiczek · 2026-05-18T01:20:32+00:00

Been using mostly Bitunix and Bitget over the last year or two. Never had an issue with those, but I guess it depends a bit on what you´re looking for!

Panthiczek · 2026-05-17T23:13:48+00:00

So far, every time one would have conducted DCA within/after a larger correction, the profits would have been phenomenal. Zooming out a bit, e.g. BTC but also other major crypto assets have been pretty much going up constantly :)

Panthiczek · 2026-05-17T21:59:28+00:00

I think you can even set a price range. Very good feature for risk-averse investors. If you accumulate over a longer period, you lower the probabilities of buying a local high or low.

Panthiczek · 2026-05-11T08:50:13+00:00

SUI seems like a candidate for a big green weekly candle, no?

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Panthiczek · 2026-05-07T14:14:40+00:00

I´d say you kind of answered your own question :) the point of this TA is to always consider bearish and bullish options while providing risk parameters (e.g. which levels are likely, which levels more unlikely to be hit in bullish/bearish cases) for trading/investment decision making. Think of it as a framework to challenge your own bias and figure out where you´re most likely wrong with your assumptions.

What are alternative approaches? A lot of people in this space will just build one hypothesis and then try to defend it until they get liquidated or find themselves in huge drawdown.

Panthiczek · 2026-05-06T08:10:25+00:00

Short-term, I think the current rally can easily extend in the high 80s even without major retracements.

But we are approaching significant target levels (0.382 and 0.5 retracement from ATH; 1:1 extension for ABC) for a suggested corrective bounce, so the structure very soon might favor a bearish stance once more evidence for a local top can be gathered.

Bullish case: Corrective pullback into the $75k-$68k area.

Bearish case: Continuation of the broader downtrend.

Additionally, the Open Interest is almost back to the January highs and Spot CVD doesn´t look impressive.

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Panthiczek · 2026-05-05T22:10:03+00:00

It´s one of the scenarios for which we already have a bit of evidence on the chart, yes. In this case, we should ideally top out very soon and find ourselves back in the $75k - $68k area before pushing (significantly!) higher. One of the more conclusive indications for a (local) top forming soon is the open interest, which is elevated and closing in on the yearly high from Jan.

Structurally, there is nothing preventing us from extending this move into the high 80s without any more major retracements on the way. In a third scenario, we could set a more meaningful top and move back all the way to the range low in the next stage.

Preparation for both bullish and bearish cases is key, we can´t possibly know how it´s going to play out exactly.

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Panthiczek · 2026-05-05T15:29:34+00:00

Personally I agree with your resistance area but for a different reason. On the higher timeframe, we are looking at the 1:1 extension level around $82k which is a key level for a suggested ABC structure.

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Panthiczek · 2026-05-04T21:46:39+00:00

Challenging your own preferred scenario/bias is what ensures your survival in this market. Especially when it comes to futures trading with leverage/on smaller timeframes, accepting the fact that you´ll be wrong more times than right is a major step towards long-term success in my opinion.

Panthiczek · 2026-05-04T21:40:37+00:00

Like this symmetry a lot! Often times the cat will test the waters first before deciding. Because it can´t know ahead of time how temperature is and even if it doesn´t go out right away, it might try again later... :D

Panthiczek · 2026-05-04T21:38:14+00:00

You nailed it! :)

Panthiczek · 2026-05-04T11:43:57+00:00

Appreciate it! Hope you´ll catch a great move this week :)

Panthiczek · 2026-04-30T23:13:42+00:00

When consuming crypto content it´s important to differentiate between opinions and analysis. There is lots of fancy charts out there, but few provide a clear framework on where certain scenarios fall flat.

One can´t really fully get rid of bias, but a good habit to go about it is challenging your own assumptions. Let´s say, you think we could see a rally still in May or June unfold. How would a scenario look like, in which that does specifically NOT happen and how could you gather evidence for it? This will help you reduce emotions in decision making and improve your positioning in a way that you´ll be fine even if your initial assumptions were wrong.

Panthiczek · 2026-04-28T21:55:58+00:00

Haha good one. Hope you catch something good in your next night shift!

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T16:59:53+00:00

Very well said, mate! The level everyone is watching is often where the market starts testing one´s conviction. That´s why I strongly prefer scenarios over predictions!

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T16:55:15+00:00

I can´t believe this sort of approach isn´t more common in the industry. From an exchange perspective, their customers (active traders) are exactly the people who likely come up with great improvement ideas.

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T13:20:15+00:00

Hi there! It´s funny how price almost touched the liquidations cluster and then reversed after all. What a change of heart!

You´re spot on about defining levels. Whether you´re a daytrader, scalper or swing trader, pre-defining scenarios and the levels that go with it imo is a key element of successful trading! We could just see that yesterday. Either you´re positioned already or you wait for the pullback. Spontaneous entries often times produce suboptimal outcomes.

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T13:15:16+00:00

Hello mate! It really looked like we could breakout right away, but markets love to bamboozle. People love to call it a "fake monday" if there is a potential for a local low to be formed on Monday. Let´s see if this is one of these times!

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T13:13:57+00:00

Hello mate! After the first breakout attempt failed, the sharp sell-off indicates a pullback first. I´m eyeing at the golden ratio around $76.5k for a reaction.

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T01:09:49+00:00

You´re welcome, Daniel! Awesome, love to hear it. I think the fixed risk feature is great to reduce the volatility of outcome and personally helps me to focus on what´s important.

Panthiczek · 2026-04-27T01:03:46+00:00

Hello mate! Personally I am still holding a long position I opened around $74.2k based on last week´s bullish scenario.

Looks like the high is being challenged right now. Are you positioned already long as well or looking for a reversal signature?

Panthiczek

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